70 research outputs found
Socio-cultural factors explaining technology-based entrepreneurial activity: Direct and indirect role of social security
No full textNurturing technology-based ventures requires consideration of societal factors besides economic factors. This study aims to analyze the direct effect as well as moderation effect of social security on technology-based entrepreneurial activity. Research hypotheses are tested through panel data analysis. National level data on 45 countries for 8 years (2006-2013) are obtained from multiple sources, including Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, World Competitiveness Yearbook, Hofstede's national culture dimensions, and so forth. The results imply that social security, as it is known, has a negative relationship with the overall rate of entrepreneurial activity. However, social security has a positive effect on the share of technology-based entrepreneurial activity. In addition, the positive impact of social security shows a gradual decline as individualism increases. Our findings provide solid empirical evidence on the relationship between social security and entrepreneurial activity, which was ambiguous in the previous studies. The research examines the interaction effects between social security and national culture for the first time. These are expected to provide a practical insight for policy makers seeking to promote entrepreneurial activity at the national level.N
Improving the security and reliability of energy supply for Mongolia
No full text학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2012. 2. Kim, Yeonbae.For many countries, the energy sector is the most dynamic and important economic sector. Developing countries with fossil fuel reserves wish to use these sources for their own development or as source of revenue for future prosperity. In Mongolia coal-fired power plants provide the majority of the power generated. There are seven main coal-fired power plants in Mongolia with a total installed capacity of 951.5 MW. These produce combined heat and power, electricity and heat at the same time. Therefore, Mongolian government should provide a high security level for the combined heat and power plant`s production.
The purpose of this thesis is to show to government and policymakers, how to improve the security of the energy supply based on the empirical analysis results of the energy sector. Moreover, to derive fuel mix for energy supply with the resources available whilst considering seasonable price, energy security and climate change mitigations as the target of energy policy.
According to the objective of the Energy Security Price Index (ESPI), based on the measure of market concentration in the fossil fuel market and political risk of exporting countries, the imported oil products and electricity are chosen to assess the level of energy security.
Keywords: Energy security, power plant, electricity demand, miningMaste
Scenario Analysis on Fossil Fuel Alternatives for Power Generation in Indonesia: Case of Maluku Region
No full text학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영전공, 2018. 8. Yeonbae Kim.The Government of Indonesia continues to prove its commitment to equitable national development including the electricity sector. Even though, Indonesia's geographical condition is the biggest challenge to realize the goals of national development. Especially eastern region of Indonesia which has a significant disparity compared to other regions in Indonesia in terms of electricity supply. Maluku is one of the areas in eastern Indonesia that has many challenges to realize the goals of national development. Maluku area mainly composed remote islands and has low energy resources. Thus, the energy needs are supplied from the other region. Due to the difficulties of energy supply, fuel oil-fired power generation technology was utilized, because at first this policy was considered most efficient. In fact, the cost of electricity production in Maluku is now double or even greater than the cost of electricity production in Java or Sumatra caused by the abundant use of fuel oil for power generation.
This study method used scenario analysis to compare scenario on fossil fuel power generation technology and carbon emission for power generation project in Maluku region by 2024. Scenario analysis is important to learn how to achieve the standards both on cost efficiency and environmental friendly policies by analyzed the cost of fossil fuel transport, the electricity generation costs and the amount of carbon emission factors. For cost analysis, this study developed the LCOE to include facility cost of possible fuel. The cost of fossil fuel transport, the electricity generation costs, and the amount of carbon emission resulting per MWh of electricity generated were evaluated.
The scenario build in this study is divided into 1) baseline which is current national fossil fuel mix plan by 2025 and against 2) three fossil fuel mix change scenarios under the principle of low cost and emission target. Each scenario alternatives have different combination of fossil fuel and technology.
The objective of this study is comparing scenario on fossil fuel power generation technology and carbon emission of power generation project in Maluku region by 2024 by apply cost efficiency and carbon emission policy targets.
The results obtained, substitution energy from oil to gas for power generation technology policy is recommended. Three fossil fuel mix change scenarios described variation impact on cost and carbon emission. The more advanced carbon mitigation technology, the more expensive it will cost. CO2 emission can be reduced about 16% against baseline without CCS technology deploy, while 47% with CCS technology by 2024.
Some steps that policy-makers can take associated with power generation project in Maluku region are 1) accelerating the development of gas supply infrastructure, especially associated with power generation project for Maluku region. 2) preparing and enabling environmental policy in term of national climate policy to recognize CCS as a means of CO2 emission reduction thus it can be applying in Maluku region.Abstract 1
Abbreviations 5
Contents 7
List of Table 9
List of figures 11
1. Introduction 13
1.1 Background 13
1.2 Objective 16
1.3 Research structure 19
2. General overview of Indonesia 20
2.1 Current conditions 20
2.2 Future condition 39
3. Empirical Frame Work 42
3.1 Candidate for fossil fuel transport technologies 42
3.2 Candidate technologies for electricity generation 75
3.3 How to measure policy targets 75
4. Result and Analysis 84
4.1 Result 84
4.2 Analysis 95
5. Discussion 107
6. Conclusion and Limitation 110
6.1 Overall conclusion 110
6.2 Limitation 113
국문 초록 115
Bibliography 118
Acknowledgments 123Maste
Does Foreign Direct Investment Influence on Energy Efficiency in ASEAN countries?
No full text학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2018. 2. Yeonbae Kim.에너지효율 향상은 경제활동과 에너지소비자의 편익을 저해하지 않으면서 에너지를 절약할 수 있는 좋은 방법이다. 즉, 에너지 효율이 높아지면 적은 에너지, 또는 동일한 에너지로 보다 낳은 서비스를 제공할 수 있다. ASEAN 국가들은 사회경제적 발전, 생산성 향상, 경쟁력 강화, 에너지 안보 및 탄소 배출 저감을 위한 가장 비용효율적인 방법으로 에너지효율에 높은 관심을 가지고 있다.
본 연구는 ASEAN 지역을 대상으로 외국인직접투자 (FDI)가 에너지효율 향상에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 9개 ASEAN 국가의 - 브루나이, 캄보디아, 인도네시아, 말레이시아, 미얀마, 필리핀, 싱가포르, 태국 및 베트남 – 농업, 제조업, 주거, 교통 산업이 분석 대상이 되었으며, 정부 및 국제기구에서 발표한 2006~2015년 데이터를 사용하였다. 분석 모델로는 하우스만테스트를 바탕으로 고정효과모델과 변동효과모델을 사용하였다.
연구결과 외국인직접투자의 유입과 소득증가는 에너지 효율을 향상시키는 효과를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 외국인직접투자를 통한 선진기술의 도입이 에너지 효율을 향상시키기 때문인 것으로 보인다. 세부 산업별로는, 농업과 제조업에서는 외국인직접투자가 에너지효율을 향상시키는 효과를 가지고 있지만, 교통부문에서는 외국인직접투자가 에너지효율을 저하시키는 것으로 나타났다.
연구결과는 ASEAN 국가들이 농업과 제조업 부문에서 외국인직접투자를 유치하기 위한 정책들을 적극적으로 개발해야 한다는 것을 보여주며, 교통부문의 에너지효율성 향상을 위해서 에너지 소비구조 변화, 세제 등 다양한 정책 방안들을 모색해야 한다는 것을 의미한다.Increase in energy efficiency is the best ways to save energy without reducing economic activity, the comfort and well-being of end users. It provides same or better energy services with less energy inputs. Increase in energy efficiency is the cost-effective strategy for economic and social development that save energy cost, improve productivity and competitiveness, enhance energy security, and reduce CO2 emission in ASEAN countries.
This thesis exams the effect of sectoral FDI inflow on energy efficiency of each sector in 9 ASEAN countries - Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. For this, panel data of four sector – agriculture, manufacture, residential and transportation - in nine ASEAN countries, from 2006 to 2015, are analyzed using Fixed effect model and Random effect model based on Hausman test. The data for this study is obtained from each government office and international organizations.
The results indicated that FDI inflows and income growth increase energy efficiency in ASEAN countries. It means that FDI inflows transfer advanced technology into ASEAN countries and thereby energy efficiency. Economic growth has also positive impact on energy efficiency. Regarding sectoral analysis, FDI inflows in agriculture and manufacturing sector have positive influence. In contrast, the transportation has negative impact on energy efficiency.
This results implicates that the government of ASEAN countries should develop new policies scenario to attract foreign investors. Policy makers in ASEAN countries also should make policies to reduce traditional biomass consumption in household and reform energy consumption structure in the transport sector.Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research Objective 2
1.3 Research Questions 3
1.4 Scope of the Study 3
1.5 Organization of the Study 4
Chapter 2. Energy Trends in ASEAN 5
2.1 Energy Demand 5
2.2 Electricity Demand and Supply 7
2.3 Production and Trade 14
2.3.1 Oil 15
2.3.2 Natural Gas 18
2.3.3 Coal 22
2.3.4 Renewable Energy 25
2.4 Factors Affecting Energy Development in ASEAN 27
2.4.1 Economics and Demographics 27
2.4.2 Energy Pricing and Fossil-Fuel Subsidies 30
2.4.3 Social and Environmental Aspects 32
2.4.4 Investment in ASEAN 35
2.5 Energy Efficiency in ASEAN 37
Chapter 3. Literature Review 40
3.1 Energy Efficiency 40
3.1.1 Agriculture 43
3.1.2 Manufacture 45
3.1.3 Residential 47
3.1.4 Transportation 49
3.2 Impacts of Controlling Variables 51
Chapter 4. Methodology and Data 58
4.1 Econometric Model 58
4.2 Data Collection 60
4.3 Methodology 63
4.3.1 Panel Unit Root Test 63
4.3.2 Hausman Test 64
Chapter 5. Results and Discussion 67
5.1 Empirical Results 67
5.2 Discussion 73
Chapter 6. Conclusion and Recommendation 76
6.1 Conclusion 76
6.2 Recommendation 77
Bibliography 80
초록 86Maste
배터리 전기차 도입에 따른 요인 평가 - 캄보디아 사례
No full text학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2023. 8. Yeonbae KIM.Climate change has become a serious global issue. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius; hence, many countries plan to reduce their emission. Correlatively, two sectors have the potential for CO2 emissions in Cambodia. One sector is electricity generation, and the other is transportation. In power generation, Cambodia used clean energy sources, accounting for 61.06% in 2022. However, the transportation sector utilizes 46% of total energy consumption, mostly in the form of petroleum products. Consequently, CO2 emission from the transportation sector in this country is the largest contributor. Cambodia plans to reduce 41.7% of emissions by 2030. Cambodias Intended Nationally Determined Contributions create two priority actions in the transportation sector. Increasing the use of electric vehicles and bicycles is the priority. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) seems to get more attention from the government to deal with the emission issue. Nevertheless, BEV development is still in the early stage, requiring more development and implementation. The market potential is great, but demand is still limited due to slow adoption. The information about BEV is still limited, and few companies import BEV in this country. Therefore, identifying any factors associated with BEV development is significant since they are keys to promoting BEV to the nation. This study uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process to investigate potential factors influencing BEV adoption of 4-wheel and 2- and 3-wheel vehicles in Cambodia from experts perspectives. Accordingly, 22 factors are classified into six categories: technology, economics, infrastructure, government support, reliable and environmental electricity supply, and consumer. The results reveal that Government Support significantly influences BEV adoption in Cambodia for both vehicle types. Financial incentives, policies & standards, adequate electricity generation, and renewable energy sources are the top factors that heavily impact the adoption of BEV. Thus, the economy has a strong influence on 4-wheel but has less effect on 2-wheel and 3-wheel. These findings could give insightful information for policy and shareholders for better BEVs adoption plans.기후 변화는 심각한 세계적인 문제가 되었다. 파리 협정은 지구의 기온 상승을 섭씨 2도 이하로 제한하는 것을 목표로 하고 있기 때문에 많은 나라들이 그들의 배출을 줄이려고 계획하고 있다. 캄보디아의 경우 CO2 배출의 두 가지 주요한 부문은 발전과 수송이다. 발전 에서 는 에너지의 청정화가 잘 진행되고 있다. 2022년 61.06%를 청정에너지가 차지하고 있다. 그러나 운송 부문은 전체 에너지 소비량의 46%를 차지하면서도 아직도 대부분 석유 제품 을 에너지로 사용하고 있다. 결과적으로, 캄보디아의 수송 부문이 CO2배출의 가장 큰 기여자이다. 캄보디아는 2030년까지 탄소배출량의 41.7%를 감축할 계획을 가지고 있다. 이를 실현하기 위해 운송부문에 적용하려고 하는 주요한 정책수단은 전기차의 보급확대이다., 그럼에도 불구하고, 캄보디아에서 전기차 보급은 아직 초기 단계이다. . 시장 잠재력은 크지만 보급 속도는 느리고 전기차에 대한 기본정보도 여전히 제한적이다. 따라서, 캄보디아 전기차의 보급확대와 관련된 예상 요인을 식별하고 상대적 중요성을 파악하는 것은 전기차 보급확대 정책 수립에 매우 중요하다. 본 연구는 캄보디아의 4륜 그리고 2륜 및 3륜 전기차량의 도입에 영향을 미치는 잠재적 요인을 분석적 위계 절차방법을 (AHP) 이용하여 분석하였다. 전기차 관련 전문가의 관점을 기반으로 하여 선정된 22개 요인의 상대적 중요성을 분석하였다. 분석결과는 2-3륜차의 경우 정부지원, 안정적 전력공급, 인프라 관련 요인이 가장 중요한 요인이고 4륜차의 경우에는 정부지원, 경제성(비용), 안정적 전력공급이 가장 중요한 요인임을 보여 주었다.
이 발견은 더 나은 BEV 채택 계획을 위한 정책 및 주주들에게 통찰력 있는 정보를 제공할 수 있다.I. Introduction 1
I.1 Research Background 1
I.2 Problem Statement 5
I.3 Research Objective and Scope 7
I.4 Research Process 9
II. Literature Review 11
II.1 Previous Studies of BEV adoption factors 11
II.2 Some Policies for EVs Adoption in Practice 14
III. Methodology 17
III.1 Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) 17
III.2 The Analytic Hierarchy Process Framework 20
III.3 Factors Classification 22
III.3.1 Technology 22
III.3.2 Economic 26
III.3.3 Infrastructure 28
III.3.4 Government Support 30
III.3.5 Reliable and Environmental Electricity Supply 31
III.3.6 Consumer 32
III.4 Questionnaire Design 36
III.5 Data Collection 37
IV. Analysis, Results, and Discussion 39
IV.1 Result of 2- and 3-wheel BEV Adoption 39
IV.1.1 Result of Overall Aggregated Evaluation of Each Category 39
IV.1.2 Result of Priority Weight within Each Factor Category 40
IV.1.3 Overall Factors Ranking 47
IV.2 Result of 4-wheel Adoption 51
IV.2.1 Result of Overall Aggregated Evaluation of Factor Category 51
IV.2.2 Result of Priority Weight within Each Factor Category 53
IV.2.3 Overall Factors Ranking 59
IV.3 Comparison of Results Priority Weight between 4-wheel vehicles and 2-and 3-wheel vehicles 62
IV.3.1 Comparison Priority Weight of Factor Categories 62
IV.3.2 Comparison of Ranking Results within Each Category 63
IV.4 Discussion 67
V. Conclusion 75
V.1 Key Findings 75
V.2 Policy Implementation 76
V.3 Research Limitation and Further Research 78
References: 79
Appendices 87
Abstract in Korean 102석
Optimization Analysis for Long-term Electricity Planning in Java Bali Power System in Indonesia
No full text학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공,2020. 2. Yeonbae Kim.Indonesias power system relies heavily on fossil fuels as an energy source for power generation. Meanwhile, the government of Indonesia is committed to reducing 29% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve a 23% and 31% renewable energy share in the overall energy sector by 2025 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, on the demand side, electricity consumption in Indonesia is currently dominated by the household sector, and most of the households are still not aware of the need to follow energy conservation policies. This study has four scenarios: The Business-as-Usual Scenario, the Renewable Energy Scenario, the Demand-Side Management Scenario, and the Green Scenario. This study aims to analyze the impact of renewable energy penetration and energy efficiency implementation in the household sector in order to provide alternative solutions and recommendations to develop long-term electricity plans by using the LEAP optimization model from 2018 as the base year to 2050 as the target year, specifically for the Java-Bali power system. The study found that the high penetration target of renewable energy could result in reducing the domination of fossil fuel-based power generation by 2050. Implementing energy efficiency programs could reduce the total investment costs over the planning horizon period, since such policies are estimated to result in reducing overall electricity consumption by 4% by 2050, from 909,6 TWh to 870.6 TWh. However, the high penetration of renewable energy resulted in high investment and production costs during the planning horizon period. Nevertheless, the higher utilization of renewable energy and the implementation of energy efficiency programs would have a significant impact on reducing CO2 emissions.인도네시아 전력 시스템은 발전을 위한 에너지원으로 화석 연료에 크게 의존한다. 한편, 인도네시아 정부는 2025년과 2050년까지 전체 에너지 분야에서 각각 23%와 31%의 재생에너지 점유율을 달성하기 위해 29%의 온실효과가스(GHG)의 배출량을 줄이겠다는 입장이다. 더욱이 수요측면에서는 현재 인도네시아의 전력소비는 가계 부문이 장악하고 있는데, 대부분의 가구는 여전히 에너지 절약 정책을 실행해야 할 필요성을 인식하지 못하고 있다. 본 연구는 네 가지 시나리오를 분석 했는데, 그것은 통상적 시나리오, 재생 가능한 에너지 시나리오, 수요 관리 시나리오, 그리고 녹색 시나리오이다. 본 연구는 자바-발리 전력 시스템을 대상으로 재생 에너지 보급 및 가구 분야 에너지 효율 구현의 영향을 분석, 장기 전력 계획을 개발을 위한 대체 해결책과 권고안을 제공하기 위해 2018년을 기준 연도로 한 LEAP 최적화 모델을 2050년까지 분석한다. 본 연구는 재생 에너지의 높은 목표치가 2050년까지 화석 연료 기반 발전의 우위를 감소시킬 수 있다는 것을 발견했다. 또한, 에너지 효율 프로그램을 시행하면 2050년까지 전체 전력 소비량이 909,6 TWh에서 870,6 TWh로 4% 정도 감소하기 때문에, 연구 기간 동안 총 투자 비용도 감소할 수 있을 것으로 추정된다. 단, 재생 에너지의 높은 침투율은 연구 기간 동안 높은 투자와 생산 비용을 초래했다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 재생 에너지의 더 높은 이용률과 에너지 효율 프로그램의 구현은 CO2 배출 감소에 큰 영향을 미칠 것이다.Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motivation 1
1.2 Research Question 4
1.3 Research Objective 4
1.4 Thesis Structure 4
Chapter 2 Research Background 7
2.1 Overview of the Indonesian Energy Sector 7
2.1.1 Indonesias Primary Energy Supply 7
2.2 Overview of the Indonesian Energy Sector 14
2.2.1 Indonesian Power System 14
2.2.2 Java Bali Power System 16
2.3 Indonesian Energy and Electricity Policy 18
2.3.1 National Energy Policy 18
Chapter 3 Literature Review 20
3.1 Energy Models 20
3.1.1 The Analytical Approach: Bottom-up Vs Top-Down Models 22
3.2 Previous Studies 24
Chapter 4 Methodology, Data and Scenario Development 29
4.1 LEAP Model 29
4.2 The Calculation of LEAP Model 30
4.3 Energy Efficiency Model 35
4.4 Scenario Development and Data Requirements 37
4.4.1 The Current Accounts 37
4.4.2 Business as Usual Scenario 46
4.4.3 Renewable Energy Scenario 47
4.4.4 Demand Side Management Scenario 47
4.4.5 Green Scenario 48
Chapter 5 Result and Discussion 49
5.1 Results 49
5.1.1 Business as Usual Scenario 49
5.1.2 Renewable Energy Scenario 57
5.1.3 Demand Side Management Scenario 63
5.1.4 Green Scenario 70
5.2 Discussion 76
5.2.1 Electricity Demand Projection 76
5.2.2 Capacity Expansion of Power Generation 76
5.2.3 Electricity Generation Mix 80
5.2.4 Investment Cost 84
5.2.5 Production Cost of Power Generation 86
5.2.6 CO2 emissions 89
Chapter 6 Conclusions 90
6.1 Overall Conclusion 90
6.2 Policy Implication and Recommendations 98
6.3 Study Limitation and Future Work 99
Appendix 105
Appendix 1: Coal Resources and Reserves in 2018 105
Appendix 2: Electricity Consumption in Indonesia by Sector (TWh) 108
Appendix 3: Electricity Consumer in Indonesia by Sector (Million) 109
Appendix 4: Load Shape of Java-Bali Power System in 2016 110
Appendix 5: Load Shape of Java Bali Power Sytem in 2017 111
Appendix 6: The Projection of Total Household (Million) 112
Appendix 7: The Electricity Demand Projection (TWh) 118
Appendix 8: The Planned Retirement of Power Generation (MW) 122
Appendix 9: Annual Capacity Expansion in Business as Usual Scenario (GW) 126
Appendix 10: Annual Investment Cost in Business as Usual Scenario (Billion US) 134
Appendix 12: Annual Amount of CO2 Emissions in Business as Usual Scenario (Million Metric Tonnes) 138
Appendix 13: Annual Capacity Expansion in Renewable Energy Scenario (GW) 142
Appendix 14: Annual Investment Cost in Renewable Energy Scenario (Billion US) 150
Appendix 16: Annual Amount of CO2 Emissions in Renewable Energy Scenario (Million Metric Tonnes) 154
Appendix 17: Annual Capacity Expansion in Demand Side Management Scenario (GW) 158
Appendix 18: Annual Investment Cost in Demand Side Management Scenario (Billion US) 166
Appendix 20: Annual Amount of CO2 Emissions in Demand Side Management Scenario (Million Metric Tonnes) 170
Appendix 21: Annual Capacity Expansion in Green Scenario (GW) 174
Appendix 22: Annual Investment Cost in Green Scenario (Billion US) 182
Appendix 24: Annual Amount of CO2 Emissions in Green Scenario (Million Metric Tonnes) 186
Appendix 25: Annual Capacity (GW) by Scenario 190
Abstract (Korean) 192
Acknowledgments 194Maste
Promoting a Clean Power Industry in the Kazakhstan framework of Green Economy
No full text학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공,2020. 2. Yeonbae Kim.This study aims to analyze the electricity sector within the conceptual framework of the "Green Economy" in Kazakhstan. The electricity sector in the Republic of Kazakhstan plays a significant role in contributing to environmental pollution, especially through the availability of coal, oil, and gas. In accordance with the Concept of a Green Economy- Kazakhstan plans to modernize its electricity sector over the next 30 years in order to reduce CO2 emissions, gasify some regions, and increase the share of renewable energy. The main objective of this study was to examine three questions:
The first essay, The Environmental Consequences of Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan, concerns the impact of economic growth on CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan, controlling for energy consumption, in the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework. The results show that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is confirmed, energy consumption increases CO2 emissions, and that government policy which was interpreted in estimation by dummy variable (D07), has negative significance in CO2 emissions. This also means that the CO2 emissions reduction policy is working.
The second essay, is the Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation by using Coal and Gas fuels in Kazakhstan, performs an analysis of the past patterns of CO2 emissions from electricity generation, while also analyzing the driving factors, based on index decomposition analysis (LMDI) over three periods: 1990-2000, 2000-2008 and 2008-2016. The economic activity effect ∆GDP increased CO2 from -0.72 Mt during the first period to 0.00 Mt and, the electricity intensity effect ∆EI from -0.26Mt to 0.33Mt. while, the electricity generation efficiency effect ∆EGEF has decreased from at 0.66Mt during the first period to 0.04 Mt. The thermal power structure effect ∆SEG increased from the -0.65Mt during the first period to 0.10Mt, while the changes in the electricity structure effect ∆STPG increased from -0.23Mt to 0.45 by the last period.
Third essay is Analysis of barriers to renewable energy development in Kazakhstan. We determined 16 (four main criteria and 12 sub-criteria) barriers from previous studies, articles and papers, as well as through interactions with experts in energy fields from two groups ( private and government experts).We used the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) methodology to identify the importance ranks of barriers regarding renewable energy. The results show that for government experts, economic barriers, and for private experts, technical barriers are the most important. Overall, in terms of these barriers, government experts rank low levels of investment as the most important factor, while private experts rank the lack of infrastructure and transmission system sub-criterion as the most important factor.이 연구는 카자흐스탄 "녹색 경제"의 개념적 틀 내에서 전력 부문을 분석하는 것을 목표로 한다. 카자흐스탄 공화국의 전력 부문은 특히 석탄, 석유 및 가스의 이용으로 인해 환경 오염에 상당한 기여를 한다. "녹색 경제"의 개념에 따라, 카자흐스탄은 향후 30년 동안 전력 부문을 현대화하여 CO2 배출량을 줄이고, 일부 지역을 가스화 하며, 재생 가능 에너지의 비중을 늘릴 계획이다. 본 연구의 주요 목표는 다음 세 가지 질문을 조사하는 것이다.
첫 번째 에세이인 성장의 환경적 결과: 카자흐스탄 공화국 사례의 실증적 분석은 에너지 소비를 통제한 상황에서 카자흐스탄의 경제 성장이 CO2 배출량에 미치는 영향을 자기 회귀 분산 지연 (ARDL) 통합 프레임 워크를 이용해 분석한다. 분석 결과, 환경 쿠즈네츠 곡선(Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC) 가설이 확인되었으며, 에너지 소비는 CO2 배출량을 증가 시키고, 더미 변수(D07)를 이용하여 추정된 정부 정책은 CO2 배출량에 부의 영향을 미침을 관찰할 수 있었다. 이는 CO2 배출 저감 정책이 잘 작동하고 있음을 의미한다.
두 번째 에세이인 "카자흐스탄의 석탄 및 가스 발전에서 발생하는 CO2 배출량의 분해 분석"에서는 전력 발전 시 발생했던 과거 이산화탄소 배출 패턴을 분석하는 동시에 지수 분해 분석을 기반으로 한 추진 인자 분석을 1990-2000, 2000-2008, 그리고 2008-2016의 세 기간에 걸쳐 수행하였다. 경제 활동 효과 ∆GDP는 첫 번째 기간 동안 CO2를 -0.72Mt에서 0.00Mt로, 전력 강도 효과 ∆EI를 -0.26Mt에서 0.33Mt로 증가시킨 반면, 발전 효율 효과 ∆EGEF는 같은 기간 동안 0.66Mt에서 0.04Mt로 감소시켰다. 화력 전력 구조 효과 ∆SEG는 첫 번째 기간 동안 -0.65Mt에서 0.10Mt로 증가한 반면, 전력 구조 변화 효과 ∆STPG는 마지막 기간 동안 -0.23Mt에서 0.45Mt로 증가했다.
세 번째 에세이인 카자흐스탄의 재생 가능 에너지 개발에 대한 장벽 분석은 선행 연구 및 두 그룹의 에너지 분야 전문가(민간 및 정부 전문가)와의 상호 작용을 통해 16 개 장벽 요인을 결정하였다 (4 개의 주요 요인 및 12 개의 보조 요인). 우리는 AHP (Analytical Hierarchical Process) 방법론을 사용하여 재생 가능 에너지와 관련된 장벽의 중요도를 식별하였다. 분석 결과, 정부 전문가에게는 경제 장벽이 가장 중요했지만 민간 전문가에게는 기술 장벽이 가장 중요했다. 전반적으로, 정부 전문가는 여러 장벽 중 낮은 수준의 투자를 가장 중요한 요인으로 평가하고 민간 전문가는 인프라 및 전송 시스템의 부족을 가장 중요한 요소로 평가하였다.Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Purpose of study 4
1.3 Dissertation structure 6
Chapter 2. The Current Status of the Electricity Industry in Kazakhstan 9
2.1. Electricity industry in Kazakhstan 9
2.2. Current situation 12
2.3. Green Economy as a way to develop sustainable power industry 14
Chapter 3. First essay: The Environmental Consequences of Growth: Empirical Evidence from the Republic of Kazakhstan 20
3.1. Introduction 20
3.2. Policy of reducing CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan 21
3.3. Purpose of study 27
3.4. Literature review 29
3.5 Research question 35
3.6. Model and methodology: ARDL approach. 35
3.7. Analysis and result 39
3.8. Conclusion 44
Chapter 4. Second essay: Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation by using Coal and Gas fuels in Kazakhstan 47
4.1. Introduction 47
4.2. The role of coal and gas in electricity generation 48
4.3. Purpose of study 51
4.4. Literature review 53
4.5. Contribution of study 54
4.6. Research question 59
4.7. Model and Methodology: LMDI approach 59
4.8. Data source 62
4.9. Analysis and result 63
4.9.1. Analysis of CO2 emissions 63
4.9.2. Decomposition analysis 64
4.10. Comparison analysis 81
4.10.1. Decomposition analysis for Kazakhstan in 1990-2016 years 81
4.11. Conclusion and Policy Implication 89
Chapter 5. Third essay: Analysis of barriers to renewable energy development in Kazakhstan 93
5.1. Introduction 93
5.2. Renewable energy in Kazakhstan 93
5.2.1. Strategy and target indicators of RES development 96
5.2.2. Definition of Renewable energy and resource potential of RES 98
5.2.3. Government support of investment in the development of renewable energy 100
5.2.4. Legislative framework 104
5.3. Purpose of study 108
5.4. Research question 109
5.5. Literature review 110
5.5.1. Literature review of AHP method research 112
5.6. Barriers of renewable energy in Kazakhstan 118
5.7. Methodology of study 121
5.8. Methodological framework 127
5.8.1. Criteria description in Hierarchical Structure 129
5.9. Survey of pairwise comparisons 137
5.10. Data collection and result of study 138
5.10.1. Weights of main criteria 140
5.10.2. Weights of Sub-criteria 145
5.10.3. Results of Overall weights Ranking of Criteria 157
5.11. Policy implication 167
Chapter 6. Overall Conclusion 174
Bibliography 184
Appendix 198
List of Acronyms 221
Abstract ( Korean) 222Docto
Cost-Benefit Analysis for Biomass Options in Electricity Generation: The Case of Cambodia
No full text학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2019. 2. Kim, Yeonbae.화석연료의 남용이 지구온난화와 환경 오염의 주범으로 지목 받으며, 정부와 정책 입안자들은 화석연료에서 벗어나 새로운 자원에 주목하게 되었다. 녹색에너지로 불리는 재생가능하고 환경 친화적인 에너지에 집중하게 된 것이다.
이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 캄보디아 정부는 녹색성장국가전략 2013-2030 (National Strategic Plan for Green Growth)을 발표하고 2030년까지 탄소배출량을 온실가스 배출 전망치 (Business as Usual) 대비 1.8Mt까지 줄이도록 계획하였다. 캄보디아는 전력 생산을 위한 농업 잔존물 활용에 높은 잠재력을 가지고 있어 이를 활용한 에너지자원의 개발이 탄소배출량 감소 목적을 달성하기 위한 방법이 될 수 있다. 따라서 비용편익분석 (CBA)을 통해 경제, 기술, 환경적 실행 가능성을 확인하는 것은 전력 생산에서 바이오매스 활용도를 높이기 위해 매우 중요하다.
이를 위해 여섯 가지 바이오매스 기술에 대해 균등발전비용(LCOE)을 추정하였다. 연구 결과 바이오매스 기법 중 혼소 (Direct Co-firing), 직접 연소 (Direct Combustion), 그리고 혐기성 소화 (Anaerobic Digestion)의 세가지 방법으로 석탄을 대체하는 것이 약 30% 정도 비용 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 바이오매스 기술의 상당한 비용 절감 효과와 탄소 배출량 절감 효과를 보여주는 결과이다.Global warming and environmentally hazardous, which mainly caused by the dominant role of fossil fuels in the energy mix, was forced the government and policy-makers to rethink about shifting away from fossil fuels toward a new source of energy, which called green, renewable and eco-friendly ones. In Cambodia, to overcome this problem the government has initiated the National Strategic Plan for Green Growth 2013-2030 (NSPGG) to reach 1.8 Mt CO2 by 2030 compared to the Business as Usual. Owning high potential in waste agriculture to generate electricity in Cambodia, developing this source of energy could act as a way to achieve the goal. It worth to be noted that increasing the share of biomass in electricity generation highly depends on the results of an economic, technical, and environmental feasibility study using the Cost-benefit Analysis (CBA). In this regard, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) was employed for six common biomass technologies. The results showed replacing coal with biomass in three technology namely, Direct Co-firing, Direct Combustion, and Anaerobic Digestion biomass options up to 30% are cost-effective since they provided quite big fuel cost saving and CO2 emission reduction.Abstract ii
Table of Contents iii
List of Tables vi
List of Figures viii
Abbreviations x
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research Questions and Objectives 3
1.3 Scope and Organization of the Study 4
Chapter 2. Cambodias Energy Situation and Biomass Potential in Electricity 5
2.1 Cambodias Electricity Situation 5
2.2 Biomass Energy Technologies 12
2.3 Biomass Potential of Cambodia 12
2.3.1 Crops Residue 13
2.3.2 Forestry Residue (Wood) 16
2.3.3 Biomass Power Technologies in Cambodia 19
2.3.3.1 Direct Combustion 20
2.3.3.2 Gasification 20
2.3.3.3 Anaerobic Digestion 22
2.3.3.4 Co-firing 22
Chapter 3. Literature Review 26
Chapter 4. Methodology and Basic Results (B-C Analysis) 35
4.1 Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation (LCOE) Model 35
4.2 Data and Assumptions 37
4.3 Options of LCOE Model 42
4.4 Data by the Options 43
4.5 LCOE Analysis by Each of the Biomass Technologies 47
4.6 Sensitivity Analysis 54
Chapter 5. Further Simulation Results 58
5.1 Weighted Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation (LCOE) 58
5.1.1 Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario 58
5.1.2 Biomass (Rice Straw) Sharing Scenario 59
5.1.3 Biomass (Wood) Sharing Scenario 59
5.1.4 Results of Scenario 60
5.2 CO2 Emissions and the Emission Saving Cost 67
5.2.1 Models 67
5.2.2 Results of CO2 Emissions 68
Chapter 6. Overall Conclusion and Recommendations 70
6.1 Conclusion 70
6.2 Recommendations 71
6.3 Future Research and Limitations 72
References 73
초 록 78
Acknowledgment 79Maste
A retrospective analysis of the power sector in Kenya
No full text학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공,2020. 2. Yeonbae Kim.The challenges facing the power sector in Kenya have changed from the early 2000s when energy consumption was curtailed by insufficient power generation and unreliable power supply. One of the key challenges that has emerged in recent times is an anticipated energy surplus in the medium-term that could potentially increase electricity costs in the country.
The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze the role that energy planning has played in guiding the development of policy and the achievement of government objectives pertaining to optimal energy provision in view of the challenges currently being faced by the sector. The study applies a retrospective optimization approach for its analysis using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) to build a model of Kenyas power sector from 2002 to 2017. Two scenarios, considered as possible development pathways to the historical development of the power sector during the study period, are built in the model in line with the objectives of the study.
The results of the analysis are compared in terms of installed capacity expansion, generation mix, carbon dioxide emissions, as well as costs in order to identify an alternative optimal energy supply strategy and therefore determine the significance of energy planning in energy policy formulation and optimal energy provision.
The key findings and policy recommendations of the study are as follows: first, optimal power generation capacity expansion is instrumental in tackling the challenges of insufficient or surplus installed capacity in the system; hence, government capacity expansion programs should be advised by the planning process on the requisite capacity and expansion rate to minimize mismatches between supply and demand.
Second, optimal power generation plays a role in dealing with the challenges of idle installed capacity in the system. Thus, policy decisions regarding technologies to be used for power generation, which in turn influence energy resources development, should be guided by the energy planning process to lessen the share of idle capacity in system.
Third, optimal capacity expansion plays a part in managing electricity costs. Therefore, power system investment plans should be guided by the planning process in the selection of suitable generation technologies that can potentially contribute to least cost power generation.
Lastly, optimal power generation can contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and as a result, can assist in the mitigation of climate change. Hence, capacity expansion programs as well as policies and strategies aimed at climate change mitigation, which in turn affect clean and renewable energy resources development, should be advised by the planning process in the selection of appropriate generation technologies.케냐 전력 부문이 직면하고 있는 도전 과제는 2000년대 초 불충분한 발전량과 안정적이지 않은 전력 공급으로 에너지 소비가 축소되었던 상황으로부터 변화했다. 최근 들어 나타난 주요 과제 중 하나는 중기 에너지 잉여로 인해 국내 전기요금이 증가할 수 있다는 것이다. 본 연구의 목적은 현재 직면하고 있는 과제의 관점에서 에너지 계획이 최적 에너지 공급과 관련된 정책 개발 및 정부 목표 달성을 위해 수행한 역할을 정량적으로 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구는 2002년부터 2017년까지의 케냐 전력 부문 모형을 구축하기 위해 LEAP(장기 에너지 계획 시스템)를 이용한 후향적 최적화 접근법을 적용한다. 본 연구의 목적을 고려하여, 연구 기간 동안 전력 부문의 역사적 개발에 대해 가능한 개발 경로로 간주되는 두 가지 시나리오를 모형에 구축하였다. 에너지 정책 도출 및 최적 에너지 공급에 있어 에너지 계획의 중요성을 확인하기 위하여, 분석 결과는 설치용량 확장, 발전 믹스, 이산화탄소 배출, 그리고 비용 측면에서 비교되었다. 분석 결과, 최적 발전용량 확장은 시스템에 부족하거나 남아도는 설치용량 문제를 해결하는 데 중요한 역할을 하므로, 정부의 용량 확대 프로그램은 수요과 공급의 불일치를 최소화하기 위해 필수 용량 및 확장률에 대한 계획 프로세스의 조언을 구하여야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 최적 전력 발전은 시스템 내 유휴 용량으로 인한 문제를 처리하는 데 주요한 역할을 한다. 따라서, 에너지 자원 개발에 영향을 미치는 발전 기술에 관한 정책 결정은 에너지 계획 프로세스에 의해 시스템 내 유휴 용량을 감소시킬 수 있는 방향으로 유도 되어야 한다. 또한, 분석 결과는 최적 용량 확장이 전력 비용 관리에 있어서도 그 역할을 한다는 것을 보여준다. 따라서 전력 시스템 투자 계획 역시 최저 비용 발전에 잠재적으로 기여할 수 있는 적절한 발전 기술을 선택하는 에너지 계획 프로세스에 의해 인도 되어야 한다. 게다가, 최적 전력 발전은 이산화탄소 배출 감소에 기여할 수 있고, 결과적으로 기후 변화를 완화하는 데 도움이 될 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 청정하고 재생 가능한 에너지 자원 개발에 영향을 미치는 용량 확장 프로그램뿐만 아니라 기후 변화 완화 정책과 전략 역시 적절한 발전 기술을 선정하기 위해 에너지 계획 프로세스를 참조하여야 한다.Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Study background 1
1.2 Research problem 2
1.3 Research questions 3
1.4 Research objectives 3
1.5 Methodology 4
1.6 Scope of the study 5
1.7 Significance of the study 5
1.8 Thesis structure 6
Chapter 2. Overview of the Power Sector in Kenya 8
2.1 The role of energy in socioeconomic development in Kenya 8
2.2 The policy and institutional organization of the power sector in Kenya 9
2.3 National energy planning 12
2.4 Energy consumption trends in Kenya 14
Chapter 3. Literature Review 17
3.1 Review of role of energy planning in supply of energy 17
3.2 Review of previous relevant studies 21
3.3 Research implications 25
Chapter 4. Methodology 26
4.1 Analysis approach and modelling 26
4.2 Scenario development 27
4.3 Data requirements and assumptions 30
Chapter 5. Analysis Results and Discussion 45
5.1 Analysis results 45
5.2 Discussion 68
5.3 Key findings and policy implications 84
Chapter 6. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 87
6.1 Conclusion 87
6.2 Policy recommendations 89
6.3 Limitations of the study and suggestions for further study 92
Bibliography 94
Abstract (Korean) 99Maste
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