1,720,973 research outputs found
Replication Data for: Postdisaster Reconstruction as a Cause of Intrastate Violence: An Instrumental Variable Analysis with Application to the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka
No full textAbstract: Despite growing concerns about the effects of environmental changes, we only have disparate and seemingly contradictory findings about the relationship between natural disasters and intrastate violence. This article addresses that problem by introducing postdisaster reconstruction as a primary explanatory variable for intrastate violence. I extend bargaining theory to predict that postdisaster reconstruction causes a commitment problem, which in turn incentivizes warring parties to fight for the strategic opportunities of reconstruction. Using an instrumental variable approach, I provide an empirical test with a subnational data set for Sri Lanka before and after the 2004 Tsunami. Consistent with my expectations, housing reconstruction increased the number of violent events, while housing destruction had no discernible impact on violence
Replication Data for: Do Politically Irrelevant Events Cause Conflict? The Cross-continental Effects of European Professional Football on Protests in Africa
No full textThis contains all the files needed to replicate the tables and figures in the text and appendix of the article
Replication Data for: Rainy Friday: Religious Participation and Protests
No full textThis contains all the files needed to replicate the tables and figures in the text and appendix of the article
Replication Data for: "The Drowning-out Effect: Voter Turnout and Protests"
No full textConventional wisdom suggests that a high turnout in a free and fair election would be laudable; it might signify proper representation and hence facilitate democratic conflict resolution. This paper presents a game-theoretic model and demonstrates that this intuition does not necessarily hold. With large voting costs, only people of intense preferences turn out, and thus the electoral results represent their opinions. In contrast, small voting costs allow people of lukewarm preferences to turn out. Because such lukewarm voters usually constitute a majority, the results of the election represent the opinions of the lukewarm majority and drown out the voices of the intense minority. This incentivizes the intense minority to raise their voices via outside options such as protests. Thus, rather counterintuitively, high turnout increases protests. I test this hypothesis using election-day rainfall as an instrumental variable for turnout and apply it to Indian State Assembly elections. The results indicate that higher turnout increases the likelihood of protests. The analyses on the causal mechanisms and robustness provide further credence to the finding
Replication Data for: The Environmental Costs of Civil War: A Synthetic Comparison of the Congolese Forests with and without the Great War of Africa
No full textPlease download and open the 7z file with 7-zip (https://www.7-zip.org/), and then carefully read the readme.txt file and follow its instruction. I used the 7z file format as Dataverse returns "Upload unsuccessful (504: GATEWAY_TIMEOUT)" error when I tried to upload the file in a zip file format
WZONE: Zones of Armed Conflicts
No full textUpdate (2024-7-26): The dataset is updated to UCDPGED 24.1. The updated dataset includes;
- Conflict zones in 2022 and 2023.
WZONE is a dataset of conflict zones. The conflict zones are created from the UCDPGED event data (version 24.1) with a machine learning method, so-called a one-class support vector machine, which is detailed here. The technical details, such as hyper-parameter selection, are also detailed in the appendix of the article. The dataset is available in the ESRI Shapefile format for each conflict dyad at a daily level. A Youtube video is also available at here.
There is a separate zip file for each year (1989-2023). Each zip file contains shape files (365 or 366 files; daily). The shape files have three columns; "dyad_id" (new dyad IDs in the UCDPGED), "conf_id" (new conflict IDs in the UCDPGED) and "date" (date of the conflict zone). The static.zip contains time-invariant estimates of conflict zones and their lower and upper confidence intervals. Finally, ged_summary.csv provides basic information of each conflict dyad, which can be merged to the conflict zone data by using dyad_id variable. For details of the variables in the summary data, refer to the codebook of the UCDPGED
Replication Data for: A New Geography of Civil War: A Machine Learning Approach to Measuring the Zones of Armed Conflicts
No full textWhere do armed conflicts occur? In applied studies, we may take ad hoc approaches to answer this question. In some regression studies, for instance, a single conflict event can cause an entire province to be classified as a conflict zone. In this paper, I fill this void of knowledge by developing a machine learning method that is less dependent on the areal-unit assumptions and can flexibly estimate conflict zones. I apply the method to a conflict event dataset and create a new dataset of conflict zones. A replication of Daskin and Pringle (2018) with the new dataset indicates that the effect of civil war on mammal populations is much smaller than the original estimate
Replication Data for: A Typology of Substitution: Weather, Armed Conflict, and Maritime Piracy
No full textAbstract: How do rebels choose among available tactics during civil war? How do they substitute one tactic for another? Although previous studies address these questions, they narrowly focus on the presence or absence of substitution. Differentiating the varieties of substitution, however, is critical. How rebels respond to their tactical environment—including weather conditions—depends on the type of substitution. I formally derive three types of substitution and test them by exploiting weather-induced exogenous variation in rebels’ tactical costs for ground and marine violent activities. The analysis of daily panel data in 31 coastal conflict countries indicates that rebels substitute violent ground activities for maritime piracy but not vice versa. This asymmetry cannot be explained without differentiating substitution types
Replication Data for: Early Closing of Ballot Box, Voter Turnout, and Vote Shares
No full textThis is a replication file for Fukumoto, Kentaro and Kyosuke Kikuta. 2021. "Early Closing of Ballot Box, Voter Turnout, and Vote Shares." Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies. Vol. 37, No. 1. Japanese. The replication files are saved as a zip file. Please unzip the file and follow the instruction in the readme file. The PDF file of the online appendix is also available. Note that the article, online appendix, and most of the replication materials are written in Japanese
Replication Data for: After a Storm Come Votes: Identifying the Effects of Disaster Relief on Electoral Outcomes
No full textThe retrospective voting theory suggests that citizens vote for governing parties in response to distributive benefits. Knowing this, governments may reward voters by providing particularistic benefits—i.e., pork—prior to elections. Previous studies, however, do not account for the endogeneity. We address this problem by focusing on disaster relief and exploiting exogeneity of disaster. In particular, by using maximum hourly rainfall as an instrumental variable for disaster relief, we analyze the causal effect of disaster relief on incumbent’s electoral outcomes. Our analyses of Japanese data in the past few decades indicate that disaster relief increased governing parties’ vote share. Specifically, when the disaster relief per capita increases from zero to its mean, the predicted value of the governing parties’ vote share increases by 2.8 and 5.4% points in the lower and upper chambers, respectively. The finding is consistent with retrospective voting behavior. Moreover, our results imply that the incumbent’s electoral gain is brought about by persuading voters from oppositions to governing parties rather than by mobilizing supporters of governing parties
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