11 research outputs found
Essays on output and real exchange rate dynamics
No full textThere are two key observations in international macroeconomics which pertain to output
and real exchange rate dynamics. First, fluctuations in national output around its long-run
growth path are very persistent. Second, fluctuations in real exchange rates are very
persistent. The sticky price framework offers an explanation for both phenomena. The
first and second essay of this thesis take an empirical approach to test the predictions of
this framework.
In the first essay I test the prediction of the sticky price model for output dynamics
using annual IFS data on 51 countries over the period 1950 -1996. The model predicts that
price stickiness should be less important in high inflation countries and therefore output
fluctuations less persistent. I find that, this inverse relationship is statistically insignificant
in the international data. A similar result holds for OECD countries. In the empirical
implementation I explicitly control for the within-country time variation in inflation by
first characterizing the inflationary environment using the long-run movements in inflation
(trend inflation), and secondly, by excluding episodes of hyperinflation. The analysis shows
that when the within-country time variation in inflation is ignored, there is support for
the prediction. For instance, the inverse relationship between persistence in deviations of
output from its long-run growth path and average inflation is statistically significant in
the full sample. However, the exclusion of a few episodes of hyperinflation renders this
relationship statistically insignificant.
In the second essay I investigate the prediction of the sticky price model for real exchange
rate dynamics using annual IFS data on 49 countries over the period 1972-1996.
The model predicts that deviations of real exchange rates from purchasing power parity
should be less persistent, in high inflation countries. The empirical analysis reveals that
the support for such an inverse relationship is extremely fragile. In particular, eliminating
episodes of hyperinflation renders this relationship statistically insignificant.
The lack of evidence in favour of the two predictions of the sticky price model is problematic
since this model is extensively used as a microfoundation for understanding output
and real exchange rate fluctuations.
In the third essay I take a structural approach to qualitatively explore the role of slow
diffusion of new products in propagating the effect of technology shocks on output. I
present a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the creation of new
products requires real resources. These products are beneficial for the economy but only
upon complete diffusion. However, this diffusion is not instantaneous. I find that relative
to a model in which there is instantaneous diffusion of new products, the qualitative
output dynamics are similar to what is observed in the U.S. data. This warrants further
quantitative investigation.Arts, Faculty ofVancouver School of EconomicsGraduat
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Meeting Security Challenges in Balochistan Through Trade and Development
No full textThe article explores the prospects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for developing the Balochistan province of Pakistan. Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan, full of natural resources; it has geostrategic importance due to its location, long coastal line, Gwadar port, and the recently launched CPEC project. It remains an economically underdeveloped and socially and politically marginalized province, facing extensive poverty and lack of economic opportunities despite the enormous economic potential, separatism movements, terrorism, and severe clashes with the federal government over its financial share in the state's divisible pool and natural resources found in the province. Economic backwardness is one of the main reasons behind the critical challenges in the province. In this regard, it is essential to analyze the prospects of CPEC projects for the province's economic, social, and political redevelopment and how CPEC can improve the security situation and resolve the separatist movements in the province. CPEC provides potential opportunities for improving the economic and security situation in the province and the region on the whole, as it brings a huge amount of Chinese foreign direct investment to the province, creates jobs, encourages infrastructure development, establishes special economic zones, and turns the province into a corridor of regional trade connecting it with other economies. The article substantiates that CPEC has prospects to cool down the Baloch uprising, bring peace, prosperity, and stability, solve the economic crises, decrease poverty and improve the country's living conditions and region
Prospects and Implications of Students Politics in Educational Institutions of Pakistan
No full textThe objective of this study is to critically analyse the problems of students politics in the educational institutions and know about its prospects and implications. This is an important phenomenon playing crucial role in a democratic states like Pakistan. Students politics is an important research problem. There are many underlying questions like what is the importance and prospects of student politics? What are its implications? Why it leads to violence how it can be overcome and more result oriented? Students are the leaders of tomorrow therefore student politics in educational institution of a democratic state like Pakistan is very important phenomenon. It has many prospects like most of the mainstream top seed politicians are the product of student politics, providing educated and well-trained political leaders and workers, strengthen political participation, increase turnout, helpful to address the issues of students and create sense of political awareness, but at the same time it has also many implications like student unions are working as pressure groups, organize strikes, marches, using force against opponent groups, wasting student’s precious time in off-campus activities, intoxication and developed weapon culture. This research is a qualitative in nature and based on critical discourse analysis, descriptive and analytical approaches
The role of local governments in the political and socio-economic development of Pakistan
No full textPakistan is a federal state, and an essential feature of federalism is decentralising power to the grassroots level in the shape of local governments. The primary objective of this study is to know about the role of local governments in Pakistan’s socio-economic and political development. Decentralisation of power plays an important role in political and socio-economic development as it helps people socialise politically and solve their underlying problems at their doorsteps. This system also directly brings socio-economic planning and developmental projects at village and street levels, leading to socio-economic development at the grassroots level. Conversely, the developmental projects only remain in the hands of the members of National and Provincial assemblies to whom very few people have access. Thus, only a distinctive class of society enjoys the benefits of developmental projects. It also brings politics to the grassroots level, therefore working as a nursery for future politicians, helping to end dynastic politics and strengthen democracy in Pakistan, a significant problem in the country and a leading cause of inefficiency in politics. Therefore, there must be an uninterrupted party-based local government system in Pakistan. This study is conducted on qualitative and descriptive methods
The 2022 floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: an assessment of the impacts on the Afghan Refugees
No full textThe 2022 floods in Pakistan have been disastrous for the country, as they have impacted almost all the provinces of Pakistan. This paper investigates the impacts of the 2022 floods on the residents of Kheshgi refugee village in district Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which was vulnerable and exposed to the floods. It had devastating impacts on people’s lives. It was thus important to investigate its impacts on the Afghan refugees in the Kheshgi refugee village. The study focused on the impacts of the infrastructure of the refugee village, economic impacts, impacts on the people’s livelihood, psychological and physical impacts, impacts on the women, children, and PWDs, and environmental impacts. The paper explores the lived experiences of Afghan refugees in times of crisis and natural disasters such as floods. The data was collected through in-depth interviews with the flood-affected people of the community who have faced the 2022 flood impacts and from the staff of the humanitarian organisations that have provided support to the affected people. The findings of the study reveal that the 2022 floods impacted all aspects of the Afghan refugees’ lives in the Kheshgi refugee village, which brought various hurdles and challenges for the community people
Great Water Wall in South China Sea: Maritime Designs of China under Mahan’s Theory of Sea Power
No full textSeas play a vital role in shaping and reshaping the course of global politics, from developing empires to new global orders. Virtually 80 percent of China’s trade resources passes through the Seas and mostly by South China Sea, so it has initiated developments in South China Sea, from building artificial island, light houses to air strips to secure its trade routes. The aim of the study is to clarify the assumptions that China is building a ‘sand wall’ or ‘water wall’ like great wall to secure its maritime trade. Descriptive, analytical approach has been adopted to study the marvel; Mahan’s theory of Sea power has been applied to quantify the developments made by China. It concludes that China is striving for naval supremacy as per Mahan’s theory along with synthesis of Mao’s ‘Active Defence’. Hence Peaceful and integrated strategies are required to minimize the implications of disruption of seaborne trade
How Terrorism Affect Economic Growth in Pakistan: By Using Co-Integration Approach
No full textThe aim of this study is to explore the long-term relationship between economic growth and terrorism. Johansen Co-integration analysis is used to gauge the effect of terrorism on economic growth. Annual time series data used from the period 1981-2015. Data of terrorism is obtained from GTD (Global Terrorism Database) while the data of economic growth is obtained from WDI World Bank Indicator. The analysis suggests the finding that there is a long-term relationship among the key macroeconomic indicators and terrorism. The present paper fills the gap by using the literature and econometric sophisticated techniques that delivered proof for the relationship among many macroeconomic indicators and terrorism. Keywords: Co-integration, Economic Growth, Terrorism JEL Classification: Z 00
Pakistan and the FATF: Exploring the Role of Diplomacy in Getting off the Grey List
No full textPakistan has been on the ‘Grey List’ of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) – the international money laundering and terror-financing watchdog. Pakistan’s engagement with the task force is not new, the country faced FATF indictments during 2008 and 2012 to 2015. Despite Pakistan’s efforts to curb AML for CFT and huge diplomatic commitments, the task force retained Pakistan on the ‘Grey List’ on account of its Risk Profile. Though other countries get clearance after fulfilling 80 percent compliance but Pakistan has been pressurized for a hundred percent compliance with the action plan. There are severe drawbacks for being remained in the grey list for banking system, export and imports, remittances, international lending and foreign investments but the most severe would be its dropping into blacklist. The September 2020 Legislation would help gathering diplomatic support in the forthcoming settings. The supportive role-played so for by China, Turkey, Malaysia at the task force has worked in averting Pakistan from blacklisting. Therefore, the study suggests that powerful diplomacy can break the FATF clutches and get Pakistan out of the ‘strategic deficiencies list’ or grey list. Explorative, historical and analytical conclusions have been brought in content analysis format
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): an analysis of its potential benefits for China
No full textRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a mega-regional free trade agreement aimed to remove tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, increase trade facilitation, liberalise investment, and promote global value chains among the member countries. The study aims to know the importance of RCEP regarding trade, foreign direct investment and other economic affairs for China and its potential economic benefits for members. It has provided for a 90% tariff reduction on trade among its 15 members. It can potentially increase trade and FDI inflow to China through the trade and FDI creation effects. Establishing a business-friendly market in the Asia Pacific region and the tariff reduction provisions of this agreement have many advantages for the Chinese economy. Among its members, China is the leading economic power. Therefore, she will get maximum economic benefits as, according to statistical simulations, it will increase her international trade, exports, services, and FDI inflow. The current 2.2% tariff imposed on Chinese exports in the RCEP market will be decreased to 0.4%. The expected economic profit to China from this agreement is 214 billion dollars, equal to 2.2% of its GDP and a 13.4% increase in FDI inflow
Technical efficiency of hybrid maize growers: A stochastic frontier model approach
No full textThis study investigated the effect of credit constraints and credit unconstraints on the technical efficiency of hybrid maize growers in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KPK) of Pakistan. The primary data were collected by a direct elicitation method from 510 maize growers of KPK Province. Stochastic frontier model techniques were used for technical efficiency analyses. The results revealed that the mean technical efficiency difference between the two groups was 10.2%. The results of technical inefficiency effect modeling demonstrated that education of the household head, family size, number of married family members, off-farm income, farming experience, tractor drill, water irrigation through a lined course, certified seed, extension services, household saving variables, and a credit size variable had positive effects on technical efficiency for both credit constrained farmers (CCFs) and credit unconstrained farmers (UCCFs). In addition, age of household head and fragmented land values had negative effects on technical efficiency for both groups. However, the interest rate had positive and negative impacts on the technical efficiency of CCFs and UCCFs, respectively. Our results have significant implications for policies related to land use, interest rate, and banking sector expansion in the rural areas of Pakistan
