662 research outputs found
Stochastic Index Numbers: A Review
No full textThe stochastic approach is a new way of viewing index numbers in which uncertainty and statistical ideas play a central role. Rather than just providing a single number for the rate of inflation, the stochastic approach provides the whole probability distribution of inflation. This paper reviews the key elements of the approach and then discusses some previously overlooked links with Fisher’s early work contained in his book The Making of Index Numbers. We then consider some more recent developments, including Diewert’s well-known critique of the stochastic approach, and provide responses to his criticisms. We also provide a review of Theil’s work on the stochastic approach, and present and extend Diewert’s work on this topic within the context of the Country Product Dummy method which measures price levels internationally.
Two Short Papers on Marijuana, Legalisation and Drinking: (1) Exogeneous Shocks and Related Goods: Drinking and the Legalisation of Marijuana; and (2) Notes on Projections of Alcohol Consumption Following Marijuana Legalisation
No full text(1) The paper uses the substitutability between goods to model the transmission to other products of a consumption shock to one product. The framework is used to analyse the impact on drinking of legalisation of marijuana. For all types of consumers for example, the results indicate that legalisation would led to approximately a 4-percent increase in marijuana consumption, while beer, wine and spirits consumption would fall by 1 percent, 2 percent and almost 4 percent, respectively. And; (2) Clements and Daryal (2005) develop a utility-maximising theory of how exogenous shocks to one market have implications for the consumption of related goods, and applied that theory to analyse the impacts on drinking of possible legalisation of marijuana. These notes set out the derivations of the standard errors of their projections.Legalisation, marijuana, alcohol
Exchange Rates, Money and Relative Prices: The Dollar-Pound in the 1920's
No full textThis paper applies the analytical framework of the monetary approach to exchange rate determination to the analysis of the Dollar/Pound exchange rate during the first part of the 1920's. The analysis uses monthly data up to the return of Britain to gold in 1925. The equilibrium exchange rate is shown to be influenced by both real and monetary factors which operate through their influence on the relative demands and supplies of monies. Special attention is given to examination of the relationship between exchange rates and the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. In the empirical work the prices of traded goods are proxied by the wholesale price indices and the prices of non-traded are proxied by wages. One of the key findings of the paper is the estimate of the elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. This elasticity is estimated with high precision and is shown to be .415 which provides an independent measure of the relative share of spending on non-traded goods. This estimate is consistent with other estimates obtained in studies of expenditure shares. The paper concluded with a dynamic simulation which indicates the satisfactory quality of the predictive ability of the model.
The International Volatility of Growth
No full textGrowth in the world economy is not shared equally among all countries, with some growing faster, some slower and some not at all. The cross-country distribution of growth is a useful tool for analysing the inequality of growth. The appropriately-weighted first moment of this distribution is world growth, while the second measures cross-country volatility. This paper introduces a methodology to examine the cross-country distribution of growth, and the components of its volatility. Using data from the Penn World Table, we find countries within geographic regions are seeing a harmonisation of growth, but between regions there is increasing dispersion.Growth, Cross-Country Distribution, Volatility
RAMP based techno-economic model for Nepali MHPs, v2
No full textUpdated in summer 2022 since v1: RAMP (version 0.2.1-pre) adapted python files and additional python files comprising techno-economic model described in the paper: Clements, W.; Pandit, S.; Bajracharya, P.; Butchers, J.; Williamson, S.; Gautam, B.; Harper, P. Techno-Economic Modelling of Micro-Hydropower Mini-Grids in Nepal to Improve Financial Sustainability and Enable Electric Cooking. Energies 2021, 14, 4232. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144232 The latest version of RAMP with explanation of requirements and how to start is freely accessible as “Remote-Areas Multi-energy systems load Profiles” (RAMP) from the GitHub. repository: https://github.com/SESAM-Polimi/RAMP. The model has been updated since the publication of the aforementioned paper, and the thesis supporting the latest version of the model should be published soon, with the title 'Enabling the transition to electric cooking in rural Nepali micro hydropower mini-grids', author: Will Clements This dataset supersedes the earlier version available at DOI: 10.5523/bris.lpsryevp8vxk2royoexrh2hv
THREE FACTS ABOUT MARIJUANA PRICES
No full textAustralians are among the largest consumers of marijuana in the world, and estimates show that their expenditure on marijuana is about twice that on wine. In this paper we analyse the evolution of marijuana prices in Australia and show that they have declined in real terms by almost 40 percent over the last decade. This decline is far above that experienced by most agricultural products. Why has this occurred and what are the implications? The extensive adoption of hydroponic techniques in growing marijuana is likely to have enhanced productivity, with the benefits passed onto consumers in the form of lower prices. We find patterns in the prices that divide the country into three broad regions: (i) Sydney, where prices are highest; (ii) Melbourne and Canberra, which have somewhat lower prices; and (iii) everywhere else, where marijuana is cheapest. We also find that marijuana prices seem to be (positively) related to real estate prices. A further finding is that the price declines have stimulated marijuana consumption by about 15 percent, inhibited drinking (marijuana and alcohol being substitutes) and led to an increase in the real incomes of users in excess of $1 billion p. a.Demand and Price Analysis,
The Demand for Vice: Inter-Commodity Interactions with Uncertainty
No full textThis paper analyses consumption patterns of vice -- marijuana, tobacco and alcohol. To deal with imperfect marijuana data, we exploit the interdependencies in the consumption of the three drugs identified in prior research, and introduce a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to formally account for the inherent uncertainty in marijuana-related data and parameters. To illustrate the application of the framework, we use Australian data to simulate the impact on the consumption of vice of a reduction in the price of marijuana; changes in pre-existing taxes on tobacco and alcohol; legalisation of marijuana, which is then subject to taxation; and a tax tradeoff involving the introduction of a revenue-neutral tax on marijuana that is offset by reduced alcohol taxation. The revenue-maximising tax rate for marijuana of about 50% is estimated to yield additional revenue of about 15% of the pre-existing proceeds from vice taxation. The role of uncertainty surrounding marijuana is highlighted by providing the entire probability distributions of all endogenous variables in a consistent multivariate framework.
Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities
No full textThere is a large literature on the influence of commodity prices on the currencies of countries with a large commodity-based export sector such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada (“commodity currencies”). There is also the idea that because of pricing power, the value of currencies of certain commodity-producing countries affects commodity prices, such as metals, energy, and agricultural-based products (“currency commodities”). This paper merges these two strands of the literature to analyse the simultaneous workings of commodity and currency markets. We implement the approach by using the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the determinants of the prices of these currencies and commodities. Included in the specification is an allowance for spillovers between the two asset types. The methodology is able to determine the extent that currencies are indeed driven by commodities, or that commodities are driven by currencies, over the period 1975 to 2005.
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