42 research outputs found
Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines
No full text<p>This data set supports the results from the publication: <br>Camila Gaido Lasserre, Kees Nederhoff, Curt D. Storlazzi, Borja G. Reguero, Michael W. Beck, Improved efficient physics-based computational modeling of regional wave-driven coastal flooding for reef-lined coastlines, Ocean Modelling (2024), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102358 </p>
Understanding coastal dynamics at an ebb-tidal delta in the Wadden Sea: A case study of Schiermonnikoog NW with Delft3D Flexible Mesh
No full textSchiermonnikoog is a Dutch barrier island with wide beaches and dunes which are both of importance for recreation as for safety. However, after decades of coastal accretion, in the last years, a strong coastline retreat is observed at the island head in the northwest. In tidal inlets, various forcing conditions of tides, waves, winds and estuarine circulation can all influence the pathways and magnitude of sediment transport. The dominance of any one of these processes can have a controlling influence on the morphology of the delta, inlet and island coast. In the case of Schiermonnikoog it is unclear what drives the recently observed coastal erosion. Therefore, the relation between the ebb-tidal delta development and the coastal transgression has to be studied. With knowledge on the behavior of the system, well-founded decisions can be made about the policy and the management in the area. In this thesis, the newly developed Delft3D Flexible Mesh (FM) modeling suite has been used to set-up and calibrate a morphostatic model. This model consists of the coupled D-Flow FM (Kernkamp et al., 2011) and D-Waves modules (SWAN, Booij et al., 1999), and can adequately hindcast measured water levels, wave heights and the expected sediment transports in the investigated area at Schiermonnikoog. Model uncertainties are overcome by incorporating the entire Dutch Wadden Sea in the model schematization. The unstructured grid allows for a local increase of the resolution in the area of interest. By analyzing the influence of individual physical processes on the system, it is found that wave action is the main driver of the migration of the approaching sand shoal. With the present-day bathymetry, the flood channel in front of the island coast no longer experiences significant tidal currents due to its hydraulic inefficiency. This indicates its upcoming abandonment, which would allow for the attachment of the sand shoal to the island coast. However, wave-driven currents and related sediment transport through the channel obstruct a closure. Similar to the situation at a the neighboring barrier island Ameland in 2014, a divergence point in the channel is visible at the location where the largest waves reach over the approaching sand shoal. The resulting gradient in the wave heights and consequent gradient in the alongshore sediment transport can be linked to the observed coastal erosion. This shows the importance of the shape of the sand shoal for the coastal dynamics in the system. To better understand the final stage before the abandonment of a flood channel, a conceptual model is presented.Civil Engineering | Hydraulic Engineerin
Computationally Efficient Modelling of Compound Flooding due to Tropical Cyclones with the Explicit Inclusion of Wave-Driven Processes: Research into the required processes and the implementation within the SFINCS model
No full textTropical cyclones (TCs) have tremendous impact on coastal communities in terms of damage due to flooding and high wind velocities, as shown by the recent hurricane season of 2017. Coastal flooding due to TCs can be contributed to different types of forcing (e.g. high offshore water levels, rainfall, etc.), or multiple at the same time (i.e. compound flooding). While the impact of TCs increases, there is the need for better predictions and early warning systems (EWSs). Probabilistic forecasting by modelling different ensembles is wanted to account for uncertainties, which requires fast models. Current modelling options are static models (bathtub approach), which are fast but too simple. Furthermore there are advanced process-based models (like Delft3D, XBeach) which are accurate but too computationally expensive. The solution is the use of a semi-advanced model which solves all relevant processes, but does that in a computationally efficient way. The semi-advanced SFINCS model is developed to solve all necessary processes with computationally efficiency in mind, but is still in its development phase. This research assesses how compound flooding due to TCs can be modelled in an accurate and computationally efficient way. Besides assessing the relevant physical processes, the implementation in a semi-advanced model is tested. In multiple tests it is shown that for conceptual situations a semi-advanced model can give accurate results within certain limits. Also it is shown in what conditions the advection term of the momentum balance needs to be solved and that a swash zone model approach with an indirect random forcing can give realistic results in 1D runup tests. A case study of the compound flooding at Jacksonville, Florida, during Hurricane Irma (2017) shows that using a semi-advanced model, a similar accuracy compared to Delft3D can be achieved while being two orders of magnitude faster. Furthermore, a first test with wave-driven flooding in a real case study at Hernani, the Philippines, during Typhoon Haiyan (2013) shows that wave-driven processes have to be explicitly included to model all types of compound flooding. The approach to include these processes with the semi-advanced SFINCS model gives reasonable results compared to XBeach, although they can be further improved with more research. The resulting computational efficiency seems to get in the right range as needed for EWSs.<br/
Present and future coastal safety assessment of 'De Slufter' anticipating sea level rise and coastal management changes: Modelling the effects of a natural coastal management strategy on the morphodynamic development and coastal safety of De Slufter on Texel with XBeach Surfbeat
No full text'De Slufter' is a nature conservation area located in the Northwest of the Dutch Wadden island Texel which is inundated with seawater during storm events. The landward side of De Slufter is a sand dike which is part of the primary coastal defence ring of the island. HHNK, which is responsible for the coastal safety of Texel, currently relocates the dynamic gully in the slufter mouth every time it reaches one of the dune heads (every 5-6 years approximately) because uncontrolled gully migration might widen the slufter mouth. This could lead to more wave attack on the sand dike, possibly affectingthe coastal safety of Texel. Still, HHNK is planning on ceasing the relocations of the gully. The goal of this thesis is to assess the effects on the present and future coastal safety of De Slufter. First, based on a field data analysis of annual topography and bathymetry measurements it is expected that the gully migration is governed by wave-induced longshore transport, curvature-induced secondary flow due to tidal forcing, overwash from the beach flat into the gully during storms and by the distance to the dune heads (which inhibits migration) To investigate the effect of ceasing relocations of the gully on present and future coastal safety a modelling study was performed with XBeach Surfbeat. 15 scenarios were created to assess the effects of different bathymetry and of sea level and bed level riseFailure was assessed on two failure mechanisms: 'Grensprofiel', which consists of two aspects. A minimum sand dike volume above storm surge level must be available in every transect alongshore in the sand dike. Also, each post-storm sand dike transect must be large enough to contain a legally defined 'limit profile'. The second mechanism is 'Initiation of flooding', which means that failure occurs when at any point landward of the 'Waterstaatswerk' boundary (the outer border of the primary coastal defence) a depth of at least 20 cm is observed. In all present scenarios no failure occurs for a normative 1/3000 year storm. De Slufter is therefore considered 'safe'. Maximum wave heights did not increase significantly for different bathymetry configurations due to the large amount of dissipation occurring in the slufter valley. No overwash or overtopping occurred in any of the modelled scenarios and morphological impact on the sand dike itself was relatively low. Failure does occur for the 1/3000 year storm with a sea level rise of 1.95 m and 3.17 m. Failure does not occur in the middle of the sand dike where the majority of the wave attack happens but in the southwestern and northeastern parts due to inundation over the ridge there (‘Initiation of flooding’). It is expected that the 'tipping point' of De Slufter, which is the sea level rise magnitude beyond which De Slufter does not adhere to safety standards, is at a sea level rise magnitude of 1.70 m.Civil Engineering | Hydraulic Engineerin
Improving predictions of swash dynamics in XBeach: The role of groupiness and incident-band runup
No full textIn predicting storm impacts on sandy coasts, possibly with structures, accurate runup and overtopping simulation is an important aspect. Recent investigations (Stockdon et al., 2014; Palmsten and Splinter, 2016) show that despite accurate predictions of the morphodynamics of dissipative sandy beaches, the XBeach model (Roelvink et al., 2009) does not correctly simulate the individual contributions of set-up, and infragravity and incident-band swash to the wave run-up. In this paper we describe an improved numerical scheme and a different way of simulating the propagation of directionally-spread short wave groups in XBeach to better predict the groupiness of the short waves and the resulting infragravity waves. The new approach is tested against field measurements from the DELILAH campaign at Duck, NC, and against video-derived runup measurements at Praia de Faro, a relatively steep sandy beach. Compared to the empirical fit by Vousdoukas et al. (2012) the XBeach model performs much better for more extreme wave conditions, which are severely underestimated by existing empirical formulations.For relatively steep beaches incident-band swash cannot be neglected and a wave-resolving simulation mode is required. Therefore in this paper we also test the non-hydrostatic, wave-resolving model within XBeach for runup and overtopping against three datasets. Results for a high-quality flume test show non-hydrostatic XBeach predicts the run-up height with good accuracy (maximum deviation 15%). A case with a very shallow foreshore typical for the Belgian coast at Wenduine was compared against detailed measurements. Overall the model shows correct behavior for this case. Finally, the model is tested against a large number (551) of physical model tests of overtopping from the CLASH database. For relatively high overtopping discharges the non-hydrostatic XBeach performs quite well, with increasing accuracy for increasing overtopping rates. However, for relatively low overtopping rates of less than 10-20 l/m/s, the model systematically underestimates measured overtopping rates.</p
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework: TC-FF
No full text<p>The TC-FF (Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework) software is a tool designed for computing tropical cyclone-induced compound flooding in operational risk analysis scenarios. It employs a Monte Carlo-based ensemble sampling generation method, coupled with a simplified autoregressive technique based on DeMaria et al. (2009), to create a TC emulator. This emulator generates ensemble members around the officially forecasted track, factoring in historical average errors in intensity, cross-track, and along-track directions. These members can be used to force a hydrodynamic model to also integrates additional critical factors such as tidal movements, storm surge, precipitation, and infiltration rates. The software outputs a consolidated probability product, with each ensemble member assigned an equal likelihood of occurrence, thereby offering a comprehensive and nuanced view of potential flooding scenarios.</p><p>This is the first beta release of TC-FF, marked as v1.0.0-beta. This version aims to gather user feedback and identify any remaining issues before the final release. While much completer and more reliable than its alpha predecessor, it should be noted that as a beta release, it may still contain bugs and is not recommended for production environments. Users are encouraged to test this version in controlled settings and provide feedback to help us improve the final product.</p>
Modeling the effects of hard structures on dune erosion and overwash
No full textMany of the most densely populated areas are located near the coast. Climate change and population growth put more and more pressure on these coastal areas. As free space is becoming sparse, coastal disaster risk reduction plans need to be spatially efficient. In this thesis the sandy coast with hard structures, such as buildings or dune revetments, is addressed. These structures can either provide additional protection or enhance erosion. Field measurements and experimental data featuring these phenomena are scarce, but the measurements of the devastating impact of Hurricane Sandy (October 2012) on the New Jersey shore provide new model validation possibilities. Hard structures in the barrier have three effects: 1) The main effect of a structure is the impact on the sand balance (both cross-shore and longshore), by cutting of (part) of the supply of sediment (WL | Delft Hydraulics, 1987). 2) In cross-shore direction a structure may result in the development of scour at the toe as a result of higher energetic conditions at the toe. However, in the post-Sandy bathymetry at the (buried) seawall at Bay Head, NJ, no scour holes were found. XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009) simulations have reproduced these profiles and suggests this is the result of infilling of scour after the peak of Sandy. 3) In longshore direction a hard element will result in the extra erosion at the sides of the structure as a result of exchange of sediment and locally higher short waves. XBeach simulations have shown that the presence of a condo at Camp Osborne, NJ, during Sandy resulted in 32% additional erosion in adjacent locations However, these effects are no reason to state on forehand that multifunctional use of the barrier is not possible. Its applicability needs to be addressed case-by-case. Process-based models, like XBeach, can accurately reproduce the effects noticed in the field. Calculation rules, like Deltares and Arcadis (2013), do not reflect the true complexity, but can give a rough first indication of the longshore effect.Coastal EngineeringHydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience
Navigating the Storm: New Approaches to Tropical Cyclone Risk Analyses and Their Implications for Coastal Flooding Predictions
No full textTropical cyclones, known as hurricanes in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific or typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, are intense storm systems characterized by strong rotating winds, heavy rainfall, and low atmospheric pressure. They form over warm tropical waters and are major drivers of coastal flooding in tropical and subtropical regions. Annually, around 50 cyclones reach hurricane strength, causing flooding through storm surges and heavy rainfall, threatening communities and ecosystems. Climate change and human activities exacerbate these risks. Accurately predicting coastal flooding due to these cyclones is challenging due to their complex features, limited historical data, and forecasting uncertainties.This dissertation aims to enhance the reliability of coastal flood forecasts and risk analysis by improving the descriptions of tropical cyclone wind geometry and pathways. It addresses both operational (short-term) and strategic (long-term) flood risk analyses. Operational risk analysis involves forecasting days before and after a cyclone, while strategic analysis deals with climate variability over decades. Both are crucial for comprehensive climate risk management, offering different time frames for preparedness and prevention.A key element in both types of analyses is accurately representing tropical cyclone conditions in computational models. By examining historical best-track data, empirical relationships for two tropical cyclone geometry parameters—the radius of maximum winds and the radius of gale-force winds—were derived, improving estimates by up to 25%. This improvement is significant, particularly for cyclones outside the United States. These parameters, either observed or derived, are essential for computing surface wind distributions using the Holland wind model, which is critical for coastal flood evaluations.Strategic risk analyses often suffer from a lack of sufficient historical tracks for reliable flood hazard assessment. To address this, an empirical track model based on Markov chains was introduced, capable of simulating thousands of synthetic storm pathways. The Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) generates these tracks, showing good agreement with historical data and extreme wind speeds. This methodology enhances the estimation of extreme cyclone conditions for strategic risk analysis.The combined data-driven and physics-based methods were used to quantify coastal flooding in the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Zone of the United States. Comparing cyclone-induced flooding to non-cyclonic flooding revealed that extratropical cyclones are responsible for frequent flooding, while tropical cyclones cause the majority of infrequent but severe floods. For example, with current sea levels, extratropical cyclones contributed to half the flooded area, but tropical cyclones accounted for ~96% of the flooded area for 100-year events, affecting significantly more people. At higher sea levels, tropical cyclone-specific flood risk diminished as areas became uniformly susceptible to flooding. This analysis highlights the importance of considering both cyclone and non-cyclone flood factors in future research.Operational risk assessments, critical for protecting lives and minimizing economic impacts, involve simulating numerous ensemble members to account for uncertainties in cyclone track, speed, and intensity. The Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Framework (TC-FF) integrates major physical drivers such as tide, surge, and rainfall, using Gaussian error distributions and autoregressive techniques. A case study of Cyclone Idai in Mozambique demonstrated the need for a large number of ensemble members for reliable forecasts. TC-FF showed less than 10% difference from operational ensembles, suggesting its utility in data-scarce environments.This dissertation provides new insights into tropical cyclone wind geometry, pathways, and their role in compound flooding. Future research should enhance data collection, particularly from satellites, to validate models and understand storm characteristics better. Incorporating overlooked processes, leveraging data assimilation, and exploring more efficient methods, including Deep Learning, are essential for advancing flood risk assessment and capturing tropical cyclone variability.Coastal Engineerin
Non-hydrostatic wave modelling of coral reefs with the addition of a porous in-canopy model
No full textOne sixth of the world's coastline consist of coral reefs and provide natural flood defence for the people who live in the coastal region behind the reef. However, a rising sea level, changing wave conditions and degradation of corals threaten the coastal safety of these reefs.Numerical models can be applied to study the reef-hydrodynamics and the effects of coral degradation on the reef-hydrodynamics. When non-linear processes are important or the individual waves need to be determined, a phase resolving model is preferred. Within this thesis two issues regarding the application of non-hydrostatic models to coral reefs were studied.Due to the large bottom gradient in front of a reef, the offshore boundary has to be located in deep water, which means that frequency dispersion becomes important. The accuracy of frequency dispersion within non-hydrostatic models depends on the number of vertical layers. However, the addition of a vertical layer increases the computational time extremely. Therefore, a reduced two layer non-hydrostatic model (XBeach-nh+) was developed with the assumption of a constant non-hydrostatic pressure in the lower layer. In theory, XBeach-nh+ is capable of modelling the wave transformation from deep to shallow water, but the applied boundary conditions cannot force deep water waves. On top of that XBeach-nh+ has never been properly validated for reef environments.Furthermore, the corals (growing on the reef flat) have a large effect on the reef-hydrodynamics by dissipating a large part of the wave energy. There exist different formulations to include vegetation into a non-hydrostatic wave model, but these formulations are mainly applicable for cylinder shaped geometries, whereas corals are more complex in shape. Apart from the shape, the in-canopy velocity can be significantly different from the free stream velocity. Therefore, a porous in-canopy model was implemented to model the in-canopy velocity, which was used to determine the canopy-induced force on the depth-averaged flow computation.Firstly, the inclusion of the second reduced layer improves the dispersion relation up to a relative depth () of 5 for linear waves. A simulation of biochromatic waves over a plane beach showed that XBeach-nh+ is capable of modelling the energy transfer between the major wave components. Both steeping and reflection of the sub-harmonic were modelled according to the measurements. Furthermore, the validation of random waves over a fringing reef showed the capability of XBeach-nh+ to model the reef-hydrodynamics for different wave conditions (rel. bias of -0.003 for total wave height, -0.081 for LF-waves and -0.103 for the setup). Moreover, the addition of the second reduced layer gives a more robust prediction for all modelled wave conditions, whereas the one-layer model contains more scatter.Secondly, the in-canopy model captures the canopy-induced force when the canopy parameters were known. Both the in-canopy flow of unidirectional and oscillating flow fields was accurately modelled when the results were compared to the measured velocity though cylinders and corals. Although, the canopy parameters were not always known, it was shown that an un-calibrated in-canopy model, based on porosity and canopy height, gives a competitive result compared to a fully calibrated shear stress formulation. The applicability of XBeach-nh+ in 2-dimensional domain with a coral covered reef flat was shown by modelling a 5 day Swell event at Ningaloo Reef. Reasonably accurate results were achieved when using the in-canopy model, based on the canopy properties
Using a process-based model for dune safety assessment: A case study of Delfland with a 2DH XBeach model
No full textWith the implementation of new legal aspects for dune safety assessment in 2017, the current method, Duros+, is no longer feasible to represent the desired processes. This 1D deterministic, volume-balance model cannot simulate processes like inundation and overwash, which are crucial to fulfil the new requirements for dune safety assessment. Therefore, the implementation of a 2DH XBeach model for dune safety assessment is evaluated. A transformation from 1D to 2DH becomes necessary and several hydrodynamic effects come into play, which are not relevant for a simulation in 1D. Additionally, the definition of a new limit state is a challenging task in order to define failure properly: The legal definition needs to be transformed into a technically feasible one. In this thesis five different limit states have been defined in order to evaluate the influence of a limit state on its consequences. These five limit states are then applied in a case study on the Delfland coast and the consequences of the different definitions are evaluated. Additionally, the safety development of the Delfland coast over the last two decades was analysed. It was found that all nourishment strategies applied at this coastal stretch contributed to an increasing safety. This includes the placement of the Sand Engine and its on-going alongshore spreading.NUS-TUD Double MSc Degree ProgrammeCivil Engineering | Hydraulic EngineeringWater Managemen
