120 research outputs found
The Natural Interest Rate in Emerging Markets
No full textAn optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labour markets and two types of consumers, is used to derive the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. Shocks are classified into generic types that affect the natural interest rates. Since parameters depend on features of the labour market and on consumption inequality, the natural rates and the impact of shocks differ from those in a mature small open economy. Subsistence consumption is found to have the largest effect on the natural rates. It reduces the interest rate, raises natural output and the terms of trade. Technology and infrastructure backwardness reduce natural output. The implications for monetary policy are derived. The effect of managed exchange rates combined with different types of inflation targeting is examined through simulations. Endogenous terms of trade make the supply curve steeper in a SOEME, so partial stickiness of the real exchange rate can be beneficial. In general, domestic inflation targeting, with some weight on the output gap, delivers lower volatility. Output response is higher and volatility lower with fixed terms of trade, demonstrating the flatter supply curve. CPI inflation targeting also does well when terms of trade are credibly fixed.small open emerging market, optimal monetary policy, dualistic labour markets, natural interest rates, Terms of Trade, natural output
The Natural interest rate in emerging markets
No full textAn optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labour markets and two types of consumers, is used to derive the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. Shocks are classified into generic types that affect the natural interest rates. Since parameters depend on features of the labour market and on consumption inequality, the natural rates and the impact of shocks differ from those in a mature small open economy. Subsistence consumption is found to have the largest effect on the natural rates. It reduces the interest rate, raises natural output and the terms of trade. Technology and infrastructure backwardness reduce natural output. The implications for monetary policy are derived. The effect of managed exchange rates combined with different types of inflation targeting is examined through simulations. Endogenous terms of trade make the supply curve steeper in a SOEME, so partial stickiness of the real exchange rate can be beneficial. In general, domestic inflation targeting, with some weight on the output gap, delivers lower volatility. Output response is higher and volatility lower with fixed terms of trade, demonstrating the flatter supply curve. CPI inflation targeting also does well when terms of trade are credibly fixed.small open emerging market, optimal monetary policy, dualistic labour markets, natural interest rates, terms of trade, natural output
The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation
No full textA new specification is employed to test for the degree of endogeneity of commercial bank credit, and its response to structural variables relevant to the Indian context. Our specification allows us to both identify money supply in a single equation, and disentangle the contribution of the Central and the Commercial Banks to the money supply process. Bank credit reacted more to financial variables and had dissimilar responses to food and manufacturing prices and output. Instead of interest rates, sectoral returns played a major role. Monetary policy broadly succeeded in preventing an explosive growth in money supply and reined in inflationary expectations. But by targeting manufacturing prices it harmed real output. The estimated structure implies that it would be more efficient to target agricultural prices for inflation control. A monetary contraction should be completed earlier than in the past, and should coincide with a rise in food prices. Information available in the systematic structural features can be exploited in designing monetary policy.Money supply endogeneity, identification, information, sectoral prices
History of monetary policy in India since independence
No full textAn SIIO paradigm, based on structure and ideas that become engraved in institutions and affect outcomes, is developed to examine and assesses monetary policy in India after independence. Narrative history, data analysis, and reporting of research demonstrate the dialectic between ideas and structure. Exogenous supply shocks are used to identify policy shocks and isolate their effects. It turns out policy was sometimes exceedingly tight when the common understanding was of a large monetary overhang. Fiscal dominance made policy procyclical. But the three factors that cause a loss of monetary autonomy-governments, markets and openness-are moderating each other. Markets moderate fiscal profligacy and global crises moderate markets and openness. Greater current congruence between ideas and structure is improving institutions and contributing to India's better performance.Monetary policy history, Structure, Ideas, Institutions, Outcomes, India
INDIAN DIASPORA: A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF JHUMPA LAHIRI'S NAMESAKE
No full textJhumpa Lahiri's novel Namesake follows the life of an American born to Indian immigrant parents. The conflict begins with the name "Gogol," which was inspired by an author who was a favorite of the immigrant Indian Father. While the story progresses through the subtle tenacious attitude of Ashima, Gogol's mother, who refuses to let go of her Indian influence by continuing to read Indian languages until the day Gogol begins to identify as an Indian. Jhumpa Lahiri depicts the life of a first generation Indian immigrant family and the difficulties they confront as immigrants establishing in a strange country while living with memories of their birthplace. The work reeks of cultural shock, alienation experienced by those who leave their birthplace for greater possibilities, and home sick feelings expressed by Gogol's mother, Ashima. The novel follows the life of Ashoke Ganguly, Gogol's father, as he strives to protect his own culture and identity; as parents, his plan was to raise Gogol in an American manner. Jhumpa Lahiri is one of the few recognized writers of diasporic literature, therefore it would be appropriate to explore her work in Namesake via a cross-cultural prism in diasporic literature
Technological Advances and Evolution of Biowarfare: A Threat to Public Health and Security
No full textResearch in public health and medical sciences has always placed a high priority in managing disease outbreaks, effective treatment capacities, and overall human health and wellbeing. Despite the fact that advances in biology, biotechnology, and medical research have proven to have sufficient value in terms of lifesaving treatments, these have also presented major challenges in their effective utilization. Hence, potentially posing serious risks in the form of bioweapons, thereby, endangering governance frameworks that prioritize biosecurity and counter-biological warfare. In this review paper, a thorough literature review has been conducted to explore the critical aspects between advances in biology and their potential misuse, which could result in serious risks to public health and security. The history of biowarfare has been studied, and the results identify major criteria that have been used in deeming a biological agent fit for the use in mass destruction programs. Five historical biological warfare agents (Bacillus anthracis, smallpox, Yersinia pestis, Vibrio cholerae, and Francisella tularensis) have been studied critically to conclude that not all biological agents may act as bioweapons, but only those agents meeting these criteria may cause catastrophic damage. This paper examines key risks associated with bioweaponry posed by the convergence of biotechnology and artificial intelligence as evident in today’s world of innovation. Based on the situational analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic, the author also discusses some of the major shortcomings of the international framework and the healthcare system in handling future biological attacks having the potential of mass destruction. Through this paper, associations between different stakeholders, scientific communities, and research groups are highly recommended along with identifying the problem at its roots.
Keywords: bioweapons, biological toxin, biotechnology, artificial intelligenc
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