161 research outputs found
Ebola virus disease in West Africa - The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections
No full text© 2014 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.Results: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total.Background On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern."Methods: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14.Conclusions: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.link_to_OA_fulltex
An Examination of the Globalisation of Authorship in Publishing in 20 Leading Marketing Journals
No full textPurpose of this paper is to examine the global contribution of academics to marketing literature between 1999 and 2003, based on an examination of the location of academics institution of employment, as reported in published works. The data is used to evaluate the global dispersion of publishing.\ud
Design/approach. The paper uses the method of content analysis where the authorship of all articles in 20 leading marketing journals between 1999 and 2003 is examined. An empirical examination of performance was undertaken across geographic regions. There was also an examination of whether the quality of journal affected regional performance.\ud
Findings. The research found that there is a significant "bias" of authorship within the 20 journals examined, with the majority of works published by academics at institutions in North America. There is some variation in regional performance based on the type of journal examined. Limitations. There was no attempt to empirically examine why differences might exist. The study only focused on a sample of 20 English language journals over 5 years. These journals have been included in studies that list the leading marketing journal for US and European academics. Practical Implications. The research suggests that there may in fact be regional differences in publishing behaviour. It is unclear if these differences relate to variations in the "objectives" of institutions within each country or other factors, such as the North American publish-or-perish mentality. The research posits that a marketing knowledge may be unnecessarily restricted, if there is a bias against non-North American perspectives. Originality. While there have been other works examining research performance of institutions, there has been limited examination in marketing on the nation in which authors work and none have used a broad cross-section of journals. This work takes a global "snapshot" of national research performance within marketing
Yakov Polonsky in Ryazan Region
No full textСтатья поступила в редакцию 06.12.2015 г.Received 06 December 2015.Рецензия на книгу: Яков Петрович Полонский : личность и творчество в истории русской культуры / под ред. Л. В. Чекурина. — Рязань : ПервопечатникЪ, 2014. — 208 с. В рецензии представлен аналитический обзор коллективного исследования «Яков Петрович Полонский: личность и творчество в истории русской культуры», изданного в Рязани в 2014 г. Монография была подготовлена учеными Рязани и их коллегами из Москвы и Великого Новгорода в связи с обсуждением актуальных вопросов изучения творчества Я. П. Полонского. Цель работы — обозначить его значимость в контексте развития регионального литературоведения: появление монографии стало знаковым этапом в истории изучения поэтического наследия писателя XIX в., которое многоаспектно рассматривается в системе русской литературной классики. Методологическая основа исследования обусловлена целью работы: первая коллективная монография по творчеству самобытного русского поэта XIX в. рассматривается в сопоставлении с более ранними работами регионального и отечественного литературоведения, с использованием историко-культурного, историко-функционального и сравнительно-типологического методов. Рецензируемая книга обладает научной ценностью, в ее рамках был предложен современный взгляд на ключевые аспекты поэтики Я. П. Полонского, самобытный характер его поэзии, предпринята попытка раскрыть символические подтексты образной системы поэта, уточнить жанровое своеобразие его сочинений.Review of Chekurin, L. V. (Ed.) (2014). Jakov Petrovich Polonskij: lichnost’ i tvorchestvo v istorii russkoj kul’tury [Yakov Polonsky: Personality and Creative Work in the History of Russian Culture]. Rуazan: PervopeshatnikЪ. 208 p. The paper is an analytical review of the collective study Yakov Polonsky: Personality and Creative Work in the History of Russian Culture, published in Ryazan in 2014. The monograph is a joint effort of a group of scholars from Ryazan and their colleagues from Moscow and Veliky Novgorod in connection with the discussion of topical issues of Y. P. Polonsky’s creative work studies. The research aims to demonstrate the importance of the work under review in the context of regional literary criticism development: the appearance of the monograph is a landmark in the research history of the 19th century writer’s poetic heritage that is considered in many aspects in the system of Russian classics. The methodological basis of the work is imposed by its purpose, i.e. the need to analyze the first collective monograph on the legacy of an original Russian 19th century poet in relation to earlier works of local and national literary studies, which makes it possible to use the historical and cultural, historical and functional, and comparative-typological methods. The author concludes that the reviewed work is of considerable scholarly value; within its framework the authors offer a modern look at the key aspects of Y. P. Polonsky’s poetics, the original character of his poetry, making an attempt to uncover the symbolic implications of his poetic imagery, and clarify the genre peculiarities of the poet’s works.Исследование осуществлено при поддержке Российского гуманитарного научного фонда (РГНФ) и Правительства Рязанской области. Проект 15-14-62001 а(р) — «Рязанский край в контексте русской литературы: региональный аспект исследования».The research is supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation for the Humanities (RHSF) and by the government of Ryazan Region, project 15-14-62001 a(р) — “Ryazan in the Context of Russian Literature: Regional Aspect of Research”
A definition for community-based surveillance and a way forward: results of the WHO global technical meeting, France, 26 to 28 June 2018
No full textDetection for novel pathogen pandemics
No full textPandemics pose a significant threat to human health and global security. Novel pathogens present substantial pandemic risks and have unique public health challenges, given the uncharacterised nature of their causative agents and the consequent uncertainty about optimal countermeasures. Early detection of novel pathogen outbreaks is crucial for timely public health responses to mitigate devastating consequences. Following outbreak discovery, further detection is essential to ascertain the prevalence and understand the features of the epidemic. This thesis explores different aspects of detection for novel pathogen pandemics, including through a systematic analysis of existing national surveillance infrastructure worldwide for novel diseases. It examines the implications of current surveillance using modelling techniques and investigates diagnostic approaches to determining community infection prevalence in the early stages of a novel pathogen pandemic. We begin by providing an overview of novel pathogens, pandemic risks, and available detection methods, reviewing the literature on “Disease X” and historical case studies of recently emerged pathogens. Our analysis of 195 countries demonstrates that only a minority have evidence publicly available of novel disease considerations in their national public health surveillance systems. For those that mandate novel disease reporting, we model time-to-detection and outbreak size using the detection thresholds specified by different countries and explore whether population-level surveillance strategies could improve upon current detection. A serial cross-sectional investigation of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in a community population in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic is presented, with four diagnostic approaches compared. Finally, we summarise our findings in the context of current and future detection for novel pathogen outbreaks and explore research directions that could guide improvements in early warning systems, diagnostic preparedness and pandemic prevention initiatives
Outbreak analytics to inform real-time public health surveillance and response in humanitarian settings
No full textThere is a growing number of people affected by outbreaks within humanitarian settings. Standard tools for outbreak detection & control are less effective in these challenging environments. This often results in large & uncontrolled epidemics that threaten global health security. It is therefore critical to ensure that a sensitive & timely understanding of the health status of the affected population is available.
Outbreak analytics (OA) is an emerging domain of data science dedicated to informing effective responses to disease outbreaks. The application of these advanced analytical methods & tools has been slow & uneven in humanitarian settings.
Therefore, my research aims to demonstrate that outbreak prevention & response in humanitarian settings can be strengthened by reinforced surveillance activities, feeding enhanced OA, to ensure data-informed decision making. I begin by reviewing the emerging science, & identifying key research gaps & potential candidates for novel or adapted outbreak analytical techniques. I contribute to the development of some methodological enhancements to the outbreak analytical toolbox to address the needs & capacities of outbreak response programmes in- the-field. Finally, I apply these techniques in a variety of crisis-affected & resource- limited settings, demonstrating their utility to monitor & assess operational performance, & thereby guide real-time data-driven decision-making in humanitarian settings.
My research described how OA are not only feasible, they are central to the surveillance pillar of any outbreak response. Applied in resource-limited settings, OA is not just about performing advanced data analysis during epidemics, but should complement a broader public health information context. The role of the field epidemiologist has certain key responsibilities in the OA cycle, & recent technological developments & shifts in attitude have greatly increased the feasibility of embedding such a role within humanitarian response.
Consideration must be given to the specific ethical implications & obligations related to collecting data & conducting research in humanitarian settings, including community engagement & participations, ensuring that collected data are used for action, & that these data are managed responsibly.
Limitations to my research & the role of OA generally revolve around data quality, on-site capacity for data collection & analysis, & a paucity of evidence in the peer-reviewed literature.
As an emerging, innovative discipline within epidemiology focused on, & building upon recent advances within, the technological & methodological aspects of the data pipeline, OA holds great promise to help bridge the gap between available techniques & their application in humanitarian & other resource-limited settings. It sits at the crossroads of public health planning, field epidemiology, methodological development & information technologies, creating opportunities for specialists in these fields to collaborate to meet the needs for an epidemic response. Insofar as it can help field epidemiologists collect, visualise & analyse data, & subsequently provide decision-makers with actionable information, OA will likely occupy an increasing and ever more important space in field epidemiology.</p
Merezhkovsky’s Neo-Christianity of the Third Testament: From Symbolist Historiosophy to Radical Politics
No full textThis article places Dmitry Merezhkovsky’s Chiliastic concept of Three Testaments into a unified structure. The author analyzes the writer’s integral system of Christological, anthropological, and historiosophicidiomyths and meta-symbols. He studies the religious, philosophical, and aesthetic genesis of the semantic transformation of traditional theological constructions and the doctrinal compilation of Russian fin de siècle culture dominant elements. It is shown how religious Modernist mythmaking alters political reality in Merezhkovsky’s mind and draws him towards radical ideologies of the extreme left and right
Emerg Infect Dis
No full textThe Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) is a web-based system and mobile application for outbreak detection and response in emergency settings. EWARS provided timely information on epidemic-potential diseases among >700,000 Rohingya refugees across settlements. EWARS helped in targeting new measles vaccination campaigns and investigating suspected outbreaks of acute jaundice syndrome
Naturally heavy scalars in supersymmetric grand unified theories
No full textThe supersymmetric flavor, CP and Polonyi problems are hints that the fundamental scale of the soft supersymmetry breaking parameters may be above a TeV, in apparent conflict with naturalness. We consider the possibility that multi-TeV scalar masses are generated by Planck- or unification-scale physics, and find the conditions under which the masses of scalars with large Yukawa couplings are driven, radiatively and asymptotically, to the weak scale through renormalization group evolution. Light third generation scalars then satisfy naturalness, while first and second generation scalars remain heavy to satisfy experimental constraints. We find that this mechanism is beautifully realized in the context of grand unified theories. In particular, the existence of right-handed neutrinos plays an important role in allowing remarkably simple scenarios. For example, for SO(10) boundary conditions with the squared masses of Higgs scalars double those of sleptons and squarks, we find that the entire scalar mass scale may be increased to 4 TeV at the unification scale without sacrificing naturalness. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved
Changes in Mortality Rates and Humanitarian Conditions in Darfur, Sudan 2003–2007
No full textThe Darfur region of Sudan has been an intense focus of humanitarian concern since rebellions began there early in 2003. In 2004, the US Secretary of State declared that conflict in Darfur represented genocide. Since 2003, many sample surveys and various mortality estimates for Darfur have been made. Nonetheless, confusion and controversy surrounding mortality levels and trends have continued. For this project, results were reviewed from the highest quality field surveys on mortality in Darfur conducted between 2003 and 2008. Trend analysis demonstrated a dramatic decline in mortality over time in Darfur. By 2005, mortality levels had fallen below emergency levels and have continued to decline. Deaths directly due violence have declined as a proportion of all of the deaths in Darfur. Declining mortality in Darfur was not associated with other proximate improvements in well-being, such as improved nutrition. Without large-scale, humanitarian intervention, continuing high rates of mortality due to violence likely would have occurred. If mortality had continued at the high rate documented in 2004, by January 2009, there would have been 330,000 additional deaths. With the humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, these people are alive today. A focus on excess deaths among non-combatants may draw attention away from other needs, such as establishing better security, improving service delivery to the displaced, and advocating for internally displaced persons to be reached today and to re-establish their lives and livelihoods tomorrow
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