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ARTICOLO 18 VERSUS TUTELA DEI PRECARI. OSSERVAZIONI CRITICHE SUL “CONTRATTO UNICO”
No full textThis paper deals with Boeri and Garibaldi’s proposal for a new permanent employment
contract in Italy, based on the French contrat nouvelles embauches model (abrogated in
2008, after ILO disapproval). They call this new contract “single”, although it would abrogate
none of the extant Italian contracts. It provides for an initial three-year phase wherein
the worker may be fired without the benefit of judicial appeal, but indemnified instead. According
to the authors, this would encourage businesses to invest in workers’ formation during
the three years. Whereupon the workers’ productivity would sustain the costs of the current
anti-unfair dismissal laws.
This paper shows that rather than empowering unprotected workers such a reform would
bring about a generalized reduction of all workers’ rights. The consequent disbalance of
forces in favour of businesses would negatively impact on wages and aggregate demand,
further complicating the problem of low economic growth in Italy
Spesa sanitaria: una previsione per gli anni 2007-08
No full textRapporto ISAE Le previsioni per l'economia italiana, Luglio 200
I piani regionali di rientro dal deficit sanitario
No full textRapporto ISAE Finanza pubblica e istituzioni, Maggio 200
Tassazione, previdenza e disoccupazione: alcune considerazioni su un contributo di Daveri e Tabellini
No full textIn “Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries", Francesco Daveri e Guido Tabellini sostengono la tesi seguente. A partire dalla seconda metà degli anni sessanta le tasse sul lavoro sono aumentate nella maggior parte delle economie industrializzate. Nei paesi caratterizzati da un mercato del lavoro concorrenziale tali aumenti non avrebbero avuto effetti di rilievo sul costo del lavoro. Nell'Europa continentale, al contrario, le organizzazioni sindacali avrebbero traslato sulle imprese gli aumenti della tassazione. Il conseguente incremento del costo del lavoro avrebbe provocato due effetti: da un lato, avrebbe ridotto la domanda di lavoro e determinato, quindi, l'aumento della disoccupazione; dall'altro, attraverso l’aumento del rapporto capitale/lavoro avrebbe ridotto il saggio di rendimento del fattore capitale, contenendo il livello degli investimenti e del prodotto. All’origine dell’aumento della disoccupazione e del rallentamento della crescita osservato in alcune delle principali economie europee, vi sarebbero perciò l’aumento delle tasse sul lavoro e il potere delle organizzazioni sindacali. Poiché, secondo gli autori, l’aumento delle tasse sul lavoro sarebbe stato a sua volta provocato soprattutto dalla generosità dei sistemi previdenziali pubblici, la principale indicazione di politica economica che essi fanno seguire alla loro analisi è l’opportunità di riformare in senso restrittivo i sistemi pensionistici europei: la diminuzione della spesa previdenziale permetterebbe di ridurre le aliquote contributive; la conseguente diminuzione del costo del lavoro provocherebbe, attraverso il meccanismo descritto in precedenza, una riduzione della disoccupazione, un aumento degli investimenti e del tasso di crescita del prodotto. La natura di questo lavoro è prettamente critica. Analizzeremo il modello proposto da Daveri e Tabellini, con particolare riferimento alla rappresentazione del mercato del lavoro, allo scopo di mettere in luce il carattere restrittivo delle ipotesi su cui esso si fonda e a cui deve perciò essere confinata, a nostro giudizio, la validità delle sue conclusioni
Spesa sanitaria: una previsione per gli anni 2006-07
No full textRapporto ISAE Le previsioni per l'economia italiana, Luglio 200
Model distraction: A comment on Daveri and Tabellini
No full textAn article by Francesco Daveri and Guido Tabellini (2000) combines empirics and a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model to recommend the reduction of labor taxation and pension expenditures. I demonstrate that, in the model, unemployment would be zero if unemployment benefits remained between zero and a certain value that is dependent on the level of wage taxation. My demonstration leads to two questions: (1) Why should the government introduce unemployment benefits in an economy that otherwise would always operate at full employment? (2) Why is the reader led to believe that the reduction of labor taxation and pension expenditure are the main economic policy indications that derive from the model? Since, in the Daveri and Tabellini model, unemployment benefits are a waste of resources, the reduction of unemployment benefits is the best way to reduce unemployment
Il fallimento del modello argentino degli anni '90: un punto di vista keynesiano
No full textThe first part of this paper analyses the macroeconomic performance of Argentina since the introduction of the Convertibility Law (April 1991) up to 1998. The reforms carried out with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) attracted large inflows of capital which allowed to increase the reserves and to finance, through the expansion of credit, a growth process mainly caused by the increase in private investment. Because of the exceptional growth in imports (brought about by the real appreciation of the exchange rate and by trade liberalization) and because of capital movement liberalization, the contribution of the private sector to the increase in reserves was modest. That increase, which was necessary to finance the expansion of aggregate demand, was mainly insured by increasing public foreign debt. This conclusion is in sharp contrast with the IMF’s point of view according to which the crisis of the convertibility regime was mainly due to the lack of fiscal discipline during the years of high growth. In the second part of the paper the recession period (1999-2001) is examined. The decision of the Argentine government to keep the peso pegged to the dollar after the Brazilian devaluation, and capital movements freedom, strongly supported by the IMF, made necessary to adopt restrictive fiscal policies in order to slow down inflation and stimulate exports. In fact, those measures worsened the recession: the positive effect on exports was more than compensated by the contemporary fall in consumption and investments
Una crisi recente: vulnerabilità macroeconomica ed effetti sociali nel caso argentino
No full textRapporto ISAE Finanza pubblica e redistribuzione, Ottobre 2003
La distribuzione funzionale e personale del reddito in Italia a partire dagli anni Novanta
No full textRapporto ISAE Finanza pubblica e redistribuzione, Ottobre 2005
As if nothing were going to happen: a search in vain for warnings about the current crisis in economic journals with the highest impact factors
No full textThe first issue we shall deal with in our paper refers to how aware mainstream economists were as regards the possibility of a crisis comparable to the current one. With this purpose in mind, we conduct a thorough analysis of the articles published over recent years by the most qualified economic journals, and particularly by those with the highest impact factors. As is well known, these journals publish almost exclusively mainstream economists’ papers and are therefore the most suitable source to analyse the views of the orthodox theory on the possibility of a crisis like the one underway. This analysis brings to light a considerable lack of contributions indicating the existence of such a possibility.
This result gives rise to a second question. What features of mainstream theory prevented ongoing trends from being understood? One way to deal with this issue is to analyse heterodox contributions in which the possibility of the crisis was indeed envisaged. The contributions we have analysed focus on the increasing levels of household indebtedness, viewed as the means to neutralize the negative impact on consumption of the marked changes in income distribution and increasing social inequalities. In this context, financial deregulation and cheap money are interpreted as the permissive factors of a process of substitution of loans for wages, which brought low wages to coexist with relatively high levels of aggregate demand. The crisis is thus viewed as the outcome of the eventual non sustainability of the rising household debt, hence of this process of substitution of loans for wages.
In our view, therefore, the causes of mainstream economists’ difficulty to envisage the crisis must be sought in their nearly unanimous agreement with major aspects of the pre-Keynesian way of reasoning, and especially with the idea that the economy’s actual output tends to adapt to potential output, and that employment and output levels cannot be constrained by demand
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