426 research outputs found
Dette publique, compétitivité extérieure et discipline budgétaire dans les pays en développement
No full textReisen Helmut. Dette publique, compétitivité extérieure et discipline budgétaire dans les pays en développement. In: Tiers-Monde, tome 32, n°126, 1991. Nouvelles perspectives sur l'ajustement, sous la direction de Centre de Développement de l'OCDE. pp. 317-342
Managing Temporary Capital Inflows: Lessons from Asia and Latin America
No full textAs witnessed by Mexico and Argentina in 1995 and by the Southern Cone countries of Latin America in the early 1980s, the macroeconomic adjustment to a sudden reversal of foreign capital flows can be extremely painful. There are at least four major reasons why governments and central banks should care about the sustainability of the capital flows
International politics and society / Why foreign capital is good for post-crisis Asia
No full textHelmut Reisen and Marcelo SotoElectronic ed.: Bonn: FES-Internet-Redaktion, 200
The Asian Drivers and Africa: Learning from Case Studies
No full textAbstract (1248) Andrea Goldstein, Nicolas Pinaud, Helmut Reisen and Dorothy McCormick Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations
No full textIn this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries from 1960-2008, we identify large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results show that an exchange rate appreciation can have strong effects on current account balances. Within three years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, while imports remain by and large unaffected. The output costs of appreciation are small and not statistically significant, indicating a shift towards domestic sources of growth. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries. --current account adjustment,global imbalances,exchange rate changes
Open Capital Account: Concrete Wealth or Paper Wealth
No full textEmpirical evidence shows that capital inflows are often used by developing countries to finance excessive consumption. The existing literature explains these phenomena as resulting from institutional imperfections. In contrast, we argue that they can be fundamental outcomes of open capital account, under which ineffectiveness in using foreign savings for investments tends to result in capital inflows being channeled to consumption through wealth effect. Our analysis shows that, while risk aversion causes low investment elasticity and hence reduces the total benefit of capital account liberalization for society over time, it nevertheless tends to increase the benefit enjoyed by current generations and hence drive consumption booms. We show that the proportion of capital inflows used for financing consumption is negatively correlated with investment elasticity. We show that a positive yet uncertain future productivity shock is likely to cause consumption booms because of sluggish investment reactions. Our analysis shows that, the greater the expected future productivity is; or the greater the uncertainty is; the stronger the consumption booms will be. (JEL F21 F32 F41 F43)open capital account; wealth effect; consumption boom; investment elasticity
Public debt, North and South
No full textThe recent rise in domestic public nonmonetary debt and in domestic bond yields is imposing a heavier burden on governments in countries like Brazil and Mexico than foreign debt does. This is a relatively new experience for developing countries but not for OECD countries. Reisen's discussion of rising government indebtedness, therefore, includes the experiences of four developing (Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Indonesia) and three highly indebted OECD countries (Belgium, Ireland, and Italy). The major determinants for government debt rising are: 1) external transfers, which imply an internal transfer of resources from the private to the public sector, 2) fiscal rigidities, because of failure to broaden tax bases and cut government consumption, 3) high interest rates coupled with low growth of GDP, and 4) massive devaluation of the real exchange rate and big swings in value among key currencies.Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Strategic Debt Management,Environmental Economics&Policies
The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations
No full textIn this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. Using a sample of 128 countries from 1960-2008, we identify large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results show that an exchange rate appreciation can have strong effects on current account balances. Within three years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, while imports remain by and large unaffected. The output costs of appreciation are small and not statistically significant, indicating a shift towards domestic sources of growth. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries. --Current account adjustment,global imbalances,exchange rate changes
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