61 research outputs found
Costs of European Monetary Union: Evidence of monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness
No full textCosts of a monetary union are typically analysed in the context of the optimum currency area approach, looking at the likelihood of asymmetric real disturbances, the degree of real wage flexibility and of labour mobility. But it is also important to consider the leeway of monetary and fiscal policy to respond to country-specific real shocks prior to entering the monetary union. Applying a structural VAR model to Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, France, Italy and the United Kingdom indicates that costs of giving up autonomous monetary policy in a European Monetary Union (EMU) would generally not be too high. Only in Italy and the United Kingdom autonomous monetary policy has shown positive short-run output effects in the past, in all other countries such effects are negligible or not significant. Some cushioning influence of adverse EMU effects, then, could be expected from autonomous fiscal policy measures, since results suggest that, with the exception of Finland and again Italy and the United Kingdom, autonomous fiscal policy had positive short-run output effects in the past in all cases, those effects being somewhat more pronounced in Belgium and Sweden.
The ECB, the banks and the sovereigns
No full textOn the bright side, the euro area economy seems finally to be on the path of a recovery at the time of writing in early 2015; and, after much hesitation, the European Central Bank (ECB) has announced a programme of sovereign bonds purchases to undertake quantitative easing (QE) which has been less divisive than what could have been expected just a few months ago. Although the programme is designed so as to decentralize the bulk of credit risk at the level of national central banks, markets have reacted positively to the announcement and, with the exception of Greece, we have seen further compression of spreads. On the dark side, however, the problem of debt overhang is likely to weigh on the euro area economies for the years to come since a low growth, low inflation environment is likely to persist even under the brightest scenario. In this context, and without a realistic prospect of further fiscal integration amongst the members of the European Union (EU), there is a risk that the European Central Bank will be overburdened by excessive responsibilities. To avoid this path, a new grand bargain between monetary policy authorities, governments and euro area institutions has to be achieved. To understand the dilemma that the ECB is likely to face if such a bargain is not achieved, it is useful to look back and analyse monetary policy in the euro area since the 2008 crisi
Demographic change in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: trends, determinants and challenges
No full textModeling and assessing forged concepts in tourism and hospitality using confirmatory composite analysis
No full textLiu, Y., Schuberth, F., Liu, Y., & Henseler, J. (2022). Modeling and assessing forged concepts in tourism and hospitality using confirmatory composite analysis. Journal of Business Research, 152(November), 221-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.07.040 ---%ABS3%---Funding Information: The first author is funded by the National Key R&D Program of China ( 2018YFB1403600 ). Additionally, she has been supported by a China Scholarship Council grant. The fourth author gratefully acknowledges financial support from FCT Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) , national funding through a research grant from the Information Management Research Center – MagIC/NOVA IMS ( UIDB/04152/2020 ). He also acknowledges a financial interest in the composite-based SEM software ADANCO and its distributor, Composite Modeling.Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was recently proposed as a viable approach to modeling and assessing forged concepts, i.e., theoretical concepts that emerge from their components within their environment. This study introduces CCA to the field of tourism and hospitality research and shows how CCA can be conducted using estimators known from structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables as implemented in common SEM software. It shows how emergent variables can be employed to model forged concepts and how CCA can be used for assessing them. In doing so, we explain the four major CCA steps comprising (1) model specification, (2) model identification, (3) model estimation, and (4) model assessment. To illustrate and guide scholars in applying CCA, we provide an empirical example from the field of tourism and hospitality research.publishersversionpublishersversionpublishe
Lessons from the crisis in Finland and Sweden in the 1990s by Jaakko Kiander, Pentti Vartia: Comment
No full textLessons from the crisis in Finland and Sweden in the 1990s by Jaakko Kiander, Pentti Vartia: Comment
No full textRoom for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?
No full textCosts of a monetary union are typically analysed in the context of the optimum currency area approach, looking at the likelihood of asymmetric real disturbances, the degree of real wage flexibility and of labour mobility. But it is also important to consider the leeway of monetary and fiscal policy to respond to country-specific real shocks prior to entering the monetary union. Applying a structural VAR model to Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Italy, United Kingdom, France and Spain indicates that costs of giving up autonomous monetary policy in a European Monetary Union (EMU) would generally not be too high. However, in Belgium, Finland, Italy, France and Spain autonomous monetary policy has shown positive short-run output effects in the past, in all other countries such effects are negligible or not significant. Some cushioning influence of adverse EMU effects, then, could be expected from autono-mous fiscal policy measures, since results suggest that autonomous fiscal policy had positive short-run output ratio effects in the past, those effects being pronounced in Sweden, Finland, United Kingdom and France. It is also shown that autonomous monetary and fiscal policy were both capable of dampening country-specific business cycles. Consequently, EMU could reduce the degree of synchronisation of output fluctuations across Europe.
Ziele der Geldpolitik - Die Rolle von Konjunkturstabilisierung
No full textMit dem Bedeutungsverlust der Politikineffizienzthese der Neuen Klassischen Makroökonomie ist nun staatliche Konjunktursteuerung wieder in das Zentrum des wissenschaftlichen Interesses gerückt. Insbesondere der Geldpolitik werden bedeutende reale Effekte in der kurzen und mittleren Frist zugeschrieben. Dies wird in den statutarisch festgelegten Zielen der Geldpolitik nur insofern beachtet, als reale Ziele, wie hohe Beschäftigung oder Wachstum, wenn überhaupt, als sekundäre Ziele Berücksichtigung finden und die Sicherung der Preisstabilität als das einzige oder primäre Ziel der Geldpolitik gilt. Insbesondere die populär gewordene Inflationszielstrategie hat diese Zielhierarchie im Bewusstsein fest verankert. Es wird gezeigt, dass ökonomische Überlegungen, die eine geringe Berücksichtigung realwirtschaftlicher Ziele nahe legen, einer kritischen Prüfung nicht standhalten, da diese modellabhängig sind und auf arbiträr gewählten Verhaltensannahmen basieren
Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?
No full textCosts of a monetary union are typically analysed in the context of the optimum currency area approach, looking at the likelihood of asymmetric real disturbances, the degree of real wage flexibility and of labour mobility. But it is also important to consider the leeway of monetary and fiscal policy to respond to country-specific real shocks prior to entering the monetary union. Applying a structural VAR model to Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Italy, United Kingdom, France and Spain indicates that costs of giving up autonomous monetary policy in a European Monetary Union (EMU) would generally not be too high. However, in Belgium, Finland, Italy, France and Spain autonomous monetary policy has shown positive short-run output effects in the past, in all other countries such effects are negligible or not significant. Some cushioning influence of adverse EMU effects, then, could be expected from autono-mous fiscal policy measures, since results suggest that autonomous fiscal policy had positive short-run output ratio effects in the past, those effects being pronounced in Sweden, Finland, United Kingdom and France. It is also shown that autonomous monetary and fiscal policy were both capable of dampening country-specific business cycles. Consequently, EMU could reduce the degree of synchronisation of output fluctuations across Europe
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