1,721,124 research outputs found
Determinants of spillovers between Islamic and conventional financial markets: exploring the safe haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic
Full text linkWe analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spillovers between conventional and Islamic stock and bond markets. We further analyse comparatively whether gold, oil, Bitcoin prices, and the risk measures VIX and EPU indexes affect the relationships between these different markets during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The results show that the Islamic bonds (Sukuk) demonstrate safe haven properties during this pandemic crisis, while the spillovers between conventional and Islamic stock markets become stronger during the pandemic outbreak. COVID-19, Oil and gold are strong predictors of the conventional-Islamic markets spillovers, while Bitcoin is not a significant determinant of these relationships
Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle
No full textThis study constructs a theoretical volatility transmission model for petroleum and FX markets, taking into account major stylized facts and uncertainty measures and the interactions between them under stages of the business cycle. It examines the impacts of those different specifications and economic factors on the spillovers between those considered markets. The results show that the impacts of the “own” shocks (petroleum on petroleum and currency on currency) are statistically significant and positive in almost all cases as expected for the models of natural gas and WTI oil, irrespectively of the currency considered. The asymmetry effect is stronger in the oil than in the natural gas markets. There is stronger and significant evidence that uncertainty affects volatility much more the mean. For the WTI oil, almost all policy and other uncertainty measures lead to an increase in the conditional variance. For currencies, coefficients are commonly significant independent of the presence of petroleum commodities in the bivariate model. The striking result for natural gas is the limited statistical relevance of the economic policy and other uncertainty measures due to the long contracts that characterize this market. Finally, common macroeconomic forces associated with the business cycle can drive these petroleum and currency markets and may cause jumps and co-jumps in the volatility of these markets. The conclusion provides policy implications of the paper’s results
Volatility transmissions across currencies and commodities with US uncertainty measures
No full textThis paper uses the Multi-chain Markov Switching model (MCMS) conditioned on US uncertainty measures (VIX, VIX-oil and FSI) to examine the patterns of volatility transmission across the resource,major and safe haven currencies. The results with and without the uncertainty variables generally identify three patterns of volatility transmission: interdependence, spillover and comovement.They reveal the dominance of interdependence over spillovers and comovements when the uncertainty variables are excluded, highlighting the significance of mutual reciprocity of individual market shocks over common shocks across the selected assets. Within portfolios of a two-variable framework (two variables representing two minimum variance portfolios (à la Markowitz), containing a weighted combination of the currencies and of the commodities,respectively), we find interdependence between the two portfolios with and without the VIX, a spillover from commodities to currencies in the case when the FSI is included and independence between the two portfolios in the case when the oil-VIX is accounted for. The implications of the results are important for the portfolio managers in selecting portfolios’ components during high oil volatility periods
The relationship between oil prices and rig counts: The importance of lags
Full text linkThis study deals with a timely and relevant issue in the oil market in the wake of the recent drastic drop in oil prices, which is the relationship between changes in oil prices and changes in rig counts, while accounting for other determinants of this relationship. This relationship is of strong interest to analysts, investors and policymakers in the United States and other countries. We empirically verify the impact of changes in oil prices
on rig counts, which has lags up to one quarter. This evidence is stable across time and over different linear and non-linear models. The analysis also suggests that the relationship is non-linear, which is verified by both the quantile regression and quantile-on-quantile models. We
find evidence of non-linearity that has softened in the most recent years where the relationship between the variables has stabilized
Are Islamic indexes a safe haven for investors?: An analysis of total, directional and net volatility spillovers between conventional and Islamic indexes and importance of crisis periods
No full textWe examine the decoupling and contagion hypotheses by testing them on the safe haven status of Islamic indexes through investigating the total, directional and net volatility spillovers across nine regional Islamic stock indexes and their conventional counterparts, using the generalized vector autoregressive framework. We use daily data covering the period 1999 to 2014 which includes various financial crises such as those that took place in Asia, Russia, Argentina, Brazil and the United States. The results show that global financial crises strongly affect the cross-market volatility. Although the contagion hypothesis is evident for both Islamic and conventional indexes, the findings also suggest the presence of a decoupling of the Islamic indexes from their conventional counterparts during turbulent periods. The results provide several useful implications for policy makers and portfolio managers seeking to diversify their portfolios and to hedge market risk, confirming that the Islamic financial indexes are a safe haven for investors during financial crises. Furthermore, paper reports significant time-varying patterns in the volatility spillovers for all the Islamic and conventional stock indexes and points out the stress transmitters and receivers
Systemic Risk for Financial Institutions in the Major Petroleum-based Economies: The Role of Oil
No full textWe examine the relationship between oil returns and systemic risk of financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies. By estimating ΔCoVaR, we observe the presence of remarkable increases in risk levels during the financial crises and achieve a better risk measurement when oil returns are included in the risk functions. Moreover, the estimated spread between the CoVaR without and with oil returns is absorbed in a time range that is longer than the duration of the oil shocks. This indicates that drops in oil prices which have a longer effect on risk and financial institutions require more time to account for their impact. Policy implications are also provided
Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: on the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases
No full textWe investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases, using a continuous-time Weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980Q1-2015Q4. We find evidence of increasing (constant) positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts (normal time spells). Global macroeconomic conditions - in particular, inflation, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions - significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases. Global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms, with a rise in average temperature (rainfall) increasing (reducing) their length. A rise in the number of military conflicts around the globe is associated with shorter booms and busts. Finally, we find that a rise in oil prices is linked with longer booms and shorter busts
Return-volatility relationships in cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from asymmetric quantiles and non-linear ARDL approach
Full text linkImplied volatility has consistently demonstrated its reliability as a superior estimator of the expected short-term volatility of underlying assets. In this study, we employ the newly constructed robust model-free implied volatility (MFIV) indices for Bitcoin and Ethereum (BitVol and EthVol) to explore the asymmetric return-volatility relationship of these cryptocurrencies through the lens of behavioral finance theories. Utilizing the asymmetric quantile regression model (QRM) and the Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) approach, our results reveal a notable difference from equities. Both positive and negative return shocks in the cryptocurrency market lead to an increase in volatility. However, during high volatility regimes, positive (negative) return shocks exert a more substantial impact on positive innovations of volatility for Bitcoin (Ethereum) compared to negative (positive) return shocks. The degree of asymmetry steadily intensifies as we progress from medium to uppermost quantiles of the volatility distribution. These observed phenomena can be attributed to behavioral aspects among market participants, including noise trading, behavioral biases, and fear of missing out (FOMO). Our findings hold significant implications for various aspects of cryptocurrency trading, portfolio hedging strategies, volatility derivatives pricing, and risk management.</p
Three Essays on Economic and Financial Risks in Different Asset Classes and Diverse Regions
Full text linkMy dissertation is titled "Economic and Financial Risks in Different Asset Classes and Different Regions," which encompasses three essays on economic activity and financial risks for the United States, interactions between Islamic and conventional stock markets, and downside risks and optimal diversified equity, bond and commodity portfolios for the PIIGs and CORE of the eurozone. The dissertation investigates migration and cascading of the different kinds of risks in the respected financial markets or regions in an economic policy uncertainty and financial stress environment.Ph.D., Economics -- Drexel University, 201
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