1,720,967 research outputs found
Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score
No full textTo support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.</p
Predicting pancreatic cancer in the UK Biobank cohort using polygenic risk scores and diabetes mellitus
No full textBackground & aims: diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to be associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), particularly new-onset DM (NODM). Others have developed polygenic risk scores (PRS) associated with PDAC risk. We aimed to compare the performance of these PRS in an independent cohort to determine if they can discriminate between NODM and long-standing DM patients with PDAC. Methods: cases (1042) and matched cancer-free controls (10,420) were drawn from the UK Biobank. Five PRS models were calculated using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from previous studies (Nakatochi, Galeotti, Molina, Jia, and Rashkin) and a combination of these. Regression models were used to assess the association between PDAC and PRS adjusted for ancestry, smoking, DM, waist circumference, and family history of digestive cancer. Receiver operator characteristic curves and area under the curve metrics (AUC) were used to assess the performance of each PRS for classifying PDAC risk. Results: the combined PRS model achieved the highest AUC (0.605), and significantly improved a clinical risk model in this cohort (AUC = 0.83; P = .0002). Individuals within the fifth quintile have a 2.74-fold increased risk of developing PDAC vs those in the first quintile (P < .001), and have a 3.05-fold increased risk of developing PDAC if they have DM vs those without DM (P < .001). The positive predictive value was 11.9% in participants without DM, 23.9% with long-standing DM, and 86.7% with NODM. Conclusions: the PDAC-related common genetic variants are more strongly associated with DM. This PRS has the potential for targeting individuals with NODM for PDAC secondary screening measures.</p
The role of aspirin in the prevention of pancreatic cancer: a nested case-control study in the UK Biobank
No full textBackground: aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) usage has been associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) prevention, though epidemiological data have not reliably demonstrated this. The aim of this study is to identify if aspirin and other NSAIDs are effective in the primary prevention of PDAC in a large UK prospective cohort.Methods: a nested case-control study was conducted using the UK Biobank cohort. Incident PDAC cases (n = 1129 of whom 239 (21.2 %) were using aspirin) were age and sex-matched with cancer-free controls (n = 8822 of whom 1752 (19.9 %) were using aspirin). Conditional logistic regression models were used to generate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of PDAC with and without regular use of aspirin, non-aspirin NSAIDs and all NSAIDs respectively. Exploratory analyses were carried out assessing interactions with diabetes mellitus (DM) as a condition with increased pancreatic cancer risk.Results: regular aspirin use at initial recruitment was independently associated with a decreased risk of PDAC (OR [95 % CI] = 0.80 [0.68-0.95] P = 0.01). Regular non-aspirin NSAID use was not associated with a risk reduction of PDAC (OR [95 % CI] = 1.01 [0.84-1.23] P = 0.88). Exploratory analyses showed that in those with DM; regular aspirin use reduced risk of PDAC (OR [95 % CI] = 0.60 [0.42-0.85] P = 0.004) compared to non-use.Discussion: regular aspirin use is associated with a reduction in risk of PDAC. The reduced risk is more apparent in participants with DM.</p
Utilising pancreatic exocrine insufficiency in the detection of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
No full textPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is usually diagnosed late, leading to a high mortality rate. Early detection facilitates better treatment options. The aim of this UK-based case–control study was to determine whether two validated tests for pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (PEI), namely, the 13C-mixed triglyceride breath test (13C-MTGBT) and a faecal elastase (FE-1) test, can discriminate between patients with resectable PDAC versus healthy volunteers (HVs) along with a comparison group with chronic pancreatitis (CP). Discrimination between disease states and HVs was tested with receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. In total, 59 participants (23 PDAC (16 men), 24 HVs (13 men) and 12 CP (10 men)) were recruited, with a similar age in each population, and a combined median (IQR) age of 66 (57–71). The areas under the ROC curve for discriminating between PDAC and HVs were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70–0.96) for the 13C-MTGBT, and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) for the FE-1 test. These were similar to CP vs. HV. In conclusion, PEI occurs in resectable PDAC to a similar extent as in CP; further large-scale, prospective studies using these tests in the primary care setting on high-risk groups are warranted
The effect of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on severity of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic necrosis
No full textIntroduction Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common emergency presentation and can be disabling. There is significant morbidity and mortality associated with AP, and it places a considerable burden on the healthcare system. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been shown to have a protective effect in some elective contexts. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the effect of NSAIDs on the course of AP and the severity of the disease. Methods A retrospective analysis was carried out of 324 patients admitted as an emergency with a diagnosis of AP to two UK hospitals. Patients were divided into two groups: those already taking NSAIDs for other co-morbidities and those not taking NSAIDs. Variables compared included: admission to a high dependency or intensive care unit; pancreatic necrosis; pseudocyst development; need for surgery; serum inflammatory markers; modified early warning scores on days 1, 3 and 5; length of stay; and mortality. Results Patients not taking NSAIDs were more likely to have a C-reactive protein level of ≥150mg/l (p=0.007). Patients in the NSAID group experienced less pancreatic necrosis (p=0.019) and lower rates of pseudocyst formation (p=0.010). Other variables showed no difference between the two groups, specifically length of stay and mortality. Conclusions Routine NSAID use may exert a protective effect on the development of AP, its severity, and complications. Therapeutic use of NSAIDs in acute presentations with pancreatitis should be further evaluated. </jats:sec
Treatment of colitis with a commensal gut bacterium engineered to secrete human tgf-β1 under the control of dietary xylan 1
No full textBackground: While cytokine therapy and the use of immunosuppressive cytokines such as transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) offer great potential for the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), issues concerning formulation, stability in vivo, delivery to target tissues, and potential toxicity need to be addressed. In consideration of these problems we engineered the human commensal bacterium Bacteroides ovatus for the controlled in situ delivery of TGF-ß 1 and treatment of colitis. Methods: Sequence encoding the human tgf-ß1 gene was cloned downstream of the xylanase promoter in the xylan operon of B. ovatus by homologous recombination. Resulting recombinants (BO-TGF) were tested for TGF-ß production in the presence and absence of polysaccharide xylan in vitro and in vivo, and used to treat experimental murine colitis. Clinical and pathological scores were used to assess the effectiveness of therapy. Colonic inflammatory markers including inflammatory cytokine expression were assessed by colorimetric assay and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results: BO-TGF secreted high levels of biologically active dimeric TGF-ß in vitro and in vivo in a xylan-controlled manner. Administration of xylan in drinking water to BO-TGF-treated mice resulted in a significant clinical improvement of colitis, accelerating healing of damaged colonic epithelium, reducing inflammatory cell infiltration, reducing expression of proinflammatory cytokines, and promoting production of mucin-rich goblet cells in colonic crypts. These beneficial effects are comparable and in most cases superior to that achieved by conventional steroid therapy. Conclusions: This novel drug delivery system has potential for the targeted and controlled delivery of TGF-ß 1 and other immunotherapeutic agents for the long-term management of various bowel disorder
National prospective cohort study of the burden of acute small bowel obstruction
Full text linkBackground
Small bowel obstruction is a common surgical emergency, and is associated with high levels of morbidity and mortality across the world. The literature provides little information on the conservatively managed group. The aim of this study was to describe the burden of small bowel obstruction in the UK.
Methods
This prospective cohort study was conducted in 131 acute hospitals in the UK between January and April 2017, delivered by trainee research collaboratives. Adult patients with a diagnosis of mechanical small bowel obstruction were included. The primary outcome was in‐hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included complications, unplanned intensive care admission and readmission within 30 days of discharge. Practice measures, including use of radiological investigations, water soluble contrast, operative and nutritional interventions, were collected.
Results
Of 2341 patients identified, 693 (29·6 per cent) underwent immediate surgery (within 24 h of admission), 500 (21·4 per cent) had delayed surgery after initial conservative management, and 1148 (49·0 per cent) were managed non‐operatively. The mortality rate was 6·6 per cent (6·4 per cent for non‐operative management, 6·8 per cent for immediate surgery, 6·8 per cent for delayed surgery; P = 0·911). The major complication rate was 14·4 per cent overall, affecting 19·0 per cent in the immediate surgery, 23·6 per cent in the delayed surgery and 7·7 per cent in the non‐operative management groups (P < 0·001). Cox regression found hernia or malignant aetiology and malnutrition to be associated with higher rates of death. Malignant aetiology, operative intervention, acute kidney injury and malnutrition were associated with increased risk of major complication.
Conclusion
Small bowel obstruction represents a significant healthcare burden. Patient‐level factors such as timing of surgery, acute kidney injury and nutritional status are factors that might be modified to improve outcomes
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