55,564 research outputs found
A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record
No full textFor the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high waters and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of storms and flooding. These are set into context against this almost 100-year record. We define annual periods for which storm activity and high sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn, the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water level (3 February 2014) and five other high water events above a 1 in 1-year return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 extreme high water level "season" can be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example, in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mm yr?1 from records between 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst the 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ? the 1 in 1-year return period. We provide a basic categorisation of the four types of extreme high water level cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was particularly unusual. Further work will assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory"
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
No full textCoastal flooding is a major global hazard, yet few studies have examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme sea level and associated coastal flooding. Here we analyse sea-level records around the coast of New Zealand (NZ) to quantify extreme storm-tide and skew-surge frequency and magnitude. We identify the relative magnitude of sea-level components contributing to 85 extreme sea level and 135 extreme skew-surge events recorded in NZ since 1900. We then examine the spatial and temporal clustering of these extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events and identify typical storm tracks and weather types associated with the spatial clusters of extreme events. We find that most extreme storm tides were driven by moderate skew surges combined with high perigean spring tides. The spring–neap tidal cycle, coupled with a moderate surge climatology, prevents successive extreme storm-tide events from happening within 4–10 d of each other, and generally there are at least 10 d between extreme storm-tide events. This is similar to findings from the UK (Haigh et al., 2016), despite NZ having smaller tides. Extreme events more commonly impacted the east coast of the North Island of NZ during blocking weather types, and the South Island and west coast of the North Island during trough weather types. The seasonal distribution of both extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events closely follows the seasonal pattern of mean sea-level anomaly (MSLA) – MSLA was positive in 92 % of all extreme storm-tide events and in 88 % of all extreme skew-surge events. The strong influence of low-amplitude (−0.06 to 0.28 m) MSLA on the timing of extreme events shows that mean sea-level rise (SLR) of similarly small height will drive rapid increases in the frequency of presently rare extreme sea levels. These findings have important implications for flood management, emergency response and the insurance sector, because impacts and losses may be correlated in space and time
Multi-decadal shoreline change in coastal natural world heritage sites – a global assessment
No full textNatural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), which are of Outstanding Universal Value, are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic pressures. This is especially true for coastal NWHS, which are additionally subject to erosion and flooding. This paper assesses shoreline change from 1984 to 2016 within the boundaries of 67 designated sites, providing a first global consistent assessment of its drivers. It develops a transferable methodology utilising new satellite-derived global shoreline datasets, which are classified based on linearity of change against time and compared with global datasets of geomorphology (topography, land cover, coastal type, and lithology), climate variability and sea-level change. Significant shoreline change is observed on 14% of 52 coastal NWHS shorelines that show the largest recessional and accretive trends (means of -3.4 m yr
-1 and 3.5 m yr
-1, respectively). These rapid shoreline changes are found in low-lying shorelines (<1 m elevation) composed of unconsolidated sediments in vegetated tidal coastal systems (means of -7.7 m yr
-1 and 12.5 m yr
-1), and vegetated tidal deltas at the mouth of large river systems (means of -6.9 m yr
-1 and 11 m yr
-1). Extreme shoreline changes occur as a result of redistribution of sediment driven by a combination of geomorphological conditions with (1) specific natural coastal morphodynamics such as opening of inlets (e.g. Río Plátano Biosphere Reserve) or gradients of alongshore sediment transport (e.g. Namib Sea) and (2) direct or indirect human interferences with natural coastal processes such as sand nourishment (e.g. Wadden Sea) and damming of river sediments upstream of a delta (e.g. Danube Delta). The most stable soft coasts are associated with the protection of coral reef ecosystems (e.g. Great Barrier Reef) which may be degraded/destroyed by climate change or human stress in the future. A positive correlation between shoreline retreat and local relative sea-level change was apparent in the Wadden Sea. However, globally, the effects of contemporary sea-level rise are not apparent for coastal NWHS, but it is a major concern for the future reinforcing the shoreline dynamics already being observed due to other drivers. Hence, future assessments of shoreline change need to account for other drivers of coastal change in addition to sea-level rise projections. In conclusion, extreme multi-decadal linear shoreline trends occur in coastal NWHS and are driven primarily by sediment redistribution. Future exacerbation of these trends may affect heritage values and coastal communities. Thus shoreline change should be considered in future management plans where necessary. This approach provides a consistent method to assess NWHS which can be repeated and help steer future management of these important sites.
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Global influences of the 18.61 year nodal cycle and 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee on high tidal levels
No full textPeriods of high astronomically generated tides contribute to the occurrence of extreme sea levels. Over interannual time scales, two precessions associated with the orbit of the Moon cause systematic variation of high tides. A global assessment of when these tidal modulations occur allows for the prediction of periods when the enhanced risk of coastal flooding is likely in different parts of the world. This paper uses modeled tides to assess the influence of the 18.61 year lunar nodal cycle and the 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee (which affects high tidal levels as a quasi 4.4 year cycle) on high tidal levels on a global scale. Tidal constituents from the TPXO7.2 global tidal model are used, with satellite modulation corrections based on equilibrium tide expectations, to predict multidecadal hourly time series of tides on a one-quarter degree global grid. These time series are used to determine the amplitude and phase of tidal modulations using harmonic analysis fitted to 18.61, 9.305, 8.85, and 4.425 year sinusoidal signals. The spatial variations in the range and phase of the tidal modulations are related to the global distribution of the main tidal constituents and tidal characteristics (diurnal or semidiurnal and tidal range). Results indicate that the 18.61 year nodal cycle has the greatest influence in diurnal regions with tidal ranges of >4 m and that the 4.4 year cycle is largest in semidiurnal regions where the tidal range is >6 m. The phase of the interannual tidal modulations is shown to relate to the form of the tide
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
No full textThere is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records
The influence of yarn production and processing variables on loop distortion in plain knit fabrics
No full textAfter reviewing past work into the geometry of the symmetrical idealised plain knit loop, an account is given of the present knowledge of loop distortion, which represents one of the major problem areas of the knitting industry. The shortcomings of this knowledge are shown to be that, although a large number of processing variables have been demonstrated to be associated with loop
distortion, there have been no systematic studies of the defect and there have been virtually no attempts to explain it in terms of fundamental physical characteristics of the yarn.
Eleven yarn production and processing variables are examined within the framework of factorially designed experiments. The influence of these independent variables is statistically related both to ranked levels of loop distortion and to values of yarn physical characteristics. The two latter groups of data are also inter-related
by rank correlation.
It is shown that loop distortion is dependent upon at least three yarn characteristics which, in turn, are dependent upon particular production and processing variables. These three are yarn bending hysteresis, bending rigidity, and count regularity. The greater propensity for wool to distort in comparison to acrylic is explained in relation to these characteristics, and to their different changes during processes such as steam setting and package dyeing.
The work is finally reviewed both from the point of view of the manufacturer, who wishes to be able to predict the likelihood that a particular yarn will cause distortion, and the textile technologist who is not only interested in choosing the optimum yarn production conditions for minimum distortion, but would like to improve the fabric appearance by changes or additions to established production routes
Can we model the effect of observed sea level rise on tides?
No full textThe link between secular changes in the lunar semidiurnal ocean tide (M2) and relative sea level rise is examined based on numerical tidal modeling and the analysis of long‐term sea level records from Europe, Australia, and the North American Atlantic coasts. The study sets itself apart from previous work by using a 1/12° global tide model that incorporates the effects of self‐attraction and loading through time‐step‐wise spherical harmonic transforms instead of iteration. This novel self‐attraction and loading implementation incurs moderate computational overheads (some 50%) and facilitates the simulation of shelf sea tides with a global root mean square error of 14.6 cm in depths shallower than 1,000 m. To reproduce measured tidal changes in recent decades, the model is perturbed with realistic water depth changes, compiled from maps of altimetric sea level trends and postglacial crustal rebound. The M2 response to the adopted sea level rise scenarios exhibits peak sensitivities in the North Atlantic and many marginal seas, with relative magnitudes of 1–5% per century. Comparisons with a collection of 45 tide gauge records reveals that the model reproduces the sign of the observed amplitude trends in 80% of the cases and captures considerable fractions of the absolute M2 variability, specifically for stations in the Gulf of Mexico and the Chesapeake‐Delaware Bay system. While measured‐to‐model disparities remain large in several key locations, such as the European Shelf, the study is deemed a major step toward credible predictions of secular changes in the main components of the ocean tide
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise
No full textDuring ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9?m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000?ppmv
1ST MEASUREMENT OF GAMMA(D(S)(+)-]MU+NU)/GAMMA(D(S)(+)-]PHI-PI+)
No full textComplete Author List:
ACOSTA D, ATHANAS M, MASEK G, PAAR H, BEAN A, GRONBERG J, KUTSCHKE R, MENARY S, MORRISON RJ, NAKANISHI S, NELSON HN, NELSON TK, RICHMAN JD, RYD A, TAJIMA H, SCHMIDT D, SPERKA D, WITHERELL MS, PROCARIO M, YANG S, BALEST R, CHO K, DAOUDI M, FORD WT, JOHNSON DR, LINGEL K, LOHNER M, RANKIN P, SMITH JG, ALEXANDER JP, BEBEK C, BERKELMAN K, BESSON D, BROWDER TE, CASSEL DG, CHO HA, COFFMAN DM, DRELL PS, EHRLICH R, GALIK RS, GARCIASCIVERES M, GEISER B, GITTELMAN B, GRAY SW, HARTILL DL, HELTSLEY BK, JONES CD, JONES SL, KANDASWAMY J, KATAYAMA N, KIM PC, KREINICK DL, LUDWIG GS, MASUI J, MEVISSEN J, MISTRY NB, NG CR, NORDBERG E, OGG M, PATTERSON JR, PETERSON D, RILEY D, SALMAN S, SAPPER M, WORDEN H, WURTHWEIN F, AVERY P, FREYBERGER A, RODRIGUEZ J, STEPHENS R, YELTON J, CINABRO D, HENDERSON S, KINOSHITA K, LIU T, SAULNIER M, SHEN F, WILSON R, YAMAMOTO H, ONG B, SELEN M, SADOFF AJ, AMMAR R, BALL S, BARINGER P, COPPAGE D, COPTY N, DAVIS R, HANCOCK N, KELLY M, KWAK N, LAM H, KUBOTA Y, LATTERY M, NELSON JK, PATTON S, PERTICONE D, POLING R, SAVINOV V, SCHRENK S, WANG R, ALAM MS, KIM IJ, NEMATI B, ONEILL JJ, SEVERINI H, SUN CR, ZOELLER MM, CRAWFORD G, DAUBENMIER CM, FULTON R, FUJINO D, GAN KK, HONSCHEID K, KAGAN H, KASS R, LEE J, MALCHOW R, MORROW F, SKOVPEN Y, SUNG M, WHITE C, WHITMORE J, WILSON P, BUTLER F, FU X, KALBFLEISCH G, LAMBRECHT M, ROSS WR, SKUBIC P, SNOW J, WANG PL, WOOD M, BORTOLETTO D, BROWN DN, FAST J, MCILWAIN RL, MIAO T, MILLER DH, MODESITT M, SCHAFFNER SF, SHIBATA EI, SHIPSEY IPJ, WANG PN, BATTLE M, ERNST J, KROHA H, ROBERTS S, SPARKS K, THORNDIKE EH, WANG CH, DOMINICK J, SANGHERA S, SHELKOV V, SKWARNICKI T, STROYNOWSKI R, VOLOBOUEV I, ZADOROZHNY P, ARTUSO M, HE D, GOLDBERG M, HORWITZ N, KENNETT R, MONETI GC, MUHEIM F, MUKHIN Y, PLAYFER S, ROZEN Y, STONE S, THULASIDAS M, VASSEUR G, ZHU G, BARTELT J, CSORNA SE, EGYED Z, JAIN V, SHELDON P, AKERIB DS, BARISH B, CHADHA M, CHAN S, COWEN DF, EIGEN G, MILLER JS, OGRADY C, URHEIM J, WEINSTEIN A
Sputum Moraxella catarrhalis strains exhibit diversity within and between COPD subjects
No full textLeena M George,1,* Richard D Haigh,1,* Vijay Mistry,1 Koirobi Haldar,1 Michael R Barer,1 Marco R Oggioni,2 Christopher E Brightling1 1Department of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; 2Department of Genetics, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK *These authors contributed equally to this work Purpose: Moraxella catarrhalis is implicated in the pathogenesis of some COPD exacerbations. We sought to investigate whether the M. catarrhalis strain is variable between COPD subjects; that an exacerbation is associated with acquisition of a new strain and that certain strains are more commonly associated with exacerbations. Patients and methods: Sputum samples were collected at stable and exacerbation visits from COPD subjects from a single center as part of the COPDMAP consortium. Samples identified as M. catarrhalis positive by qPCR were recultured in liquid cultures grown to extract genomic DNA; underwent Illumina MiSeq and bacterial genome sequences were de novo assembled and Multi Locus Sequence Type (MLST) was determined. Results: Thirty-five samples were obtained from 18 subjects. These included 13 stable and 22 exacerbation samples. The diversity between samples was very large with 25 different M. catarrhalis MLSTs being identified out of the 35 samples of which 12 MSLTs have not been described previously. Change and persistence of M. catarrhalis strain were observed between stable visits, from stable to exacerbation and vice-a-versa, and between exacerbation visits. Conclusion: Sputum M. catarrhalis strains exhibit marked diversity within and between COPD subjects. Acquisition of a new strain is common between stable and exacerbation events such that no strain is specifically associated with an exacerbation. Keywords: COPD, Moraxella catarrhalis, strain change, exacerbatio
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