4 research outputs found
Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Nigeria using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Technique
No full textThis paper applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology of Box-Jenkins (1976) to model and forecast inflation rate in Nigeria, using monthly time series dataset for the period from 2009:1 to 2018:12.The dataset has been subjected to test for unit root using the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (1981), as well as the Zivot and Andrews unit root test which accounts for structural break. The data has been established to be integrated of order1, that is I(1) in both tests, with the break date identified in 2017:01, which necessitates the use of sub sample from 2009:1 to 2016:01 and the entire sample to make comparison and determine the best model that fits the data. The study finds that the ARIMA (2, 1, 13) model using the sub sample data; which considers the structural break date is the parsimonious model as it has passed all the diagnostic tests and thus utilized to predict the future values of the rate of inflation for the period from 2018:7 to 2018:12.The forecast values are not much different from the actual values of the inflation. The study thus recommends the use of ARIMA modeling in forecasting inflation rate in Nigeria, so as to aid policy makers in designing policy measures to cushion the effects of inflation on the living conditions of Nigerians
The Relationship between Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Cointegration with Structural Break Approach
No full textNEXUS BETWEEN POINT OF SALE, AUTOMATED TELLER MACHINE, MOBILE BANKING AND CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION IN NIGERIA: ARDL BOND TEST COINTEGRATION APPROACH
No full textThis paper examines the nexus between point of sale (POS), automated teller machine (ATM), mobile banking (MBK) and currency in circulation in Nigeria. Quarterly data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria from January 2009- September 2020. Unit root, ARDL bond test cointegration were employed as techniques of analysis. The findings reveal that, there is significant and long run relationship between the ATM, POS MBK and currency in circulation. ARDL bound test cointegration shows that, there exists a long run cointegrating relationship between the variables under investigation. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term suggests that the system (economy) may correct its previous period disequilibrium by about 49% annually. The paper recommended that Government through the CBN should formulate and improve monetarypolicies (cashless policy) aimed at encouraging and improving E-payment system in order to actualize the objective of cashless policy in Nigeria. Also Government, monetary authorities (CBN, Ministry of finance,) and commercial banks should educate and enlighten the people on the Advantages of using POS, MBK, ATM and CCHEQ in their day to day activities in Nigeria in other to reduce currency in circulation and improve economic performance
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO RURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM EDDA LGA, EBONYI STATE, NIGERIA.
No full textThis study investigates the role of Sustainable Agricultural Practices (SAP) in enhancing Rural Economic Development (RED), with a specific focus on the Edda Local Government Area in Ebonyi State, Nigeria. The research adopted a quantitative approach, utilizing quantitative data to examine how SAP contributes to rural economic growth and how Contextual Factors (COF) such as access to credit, educational level, cultural beliefs, social networks and community engagement moderate this relationship. The sample consists of 370 small, medium, and largescale farmers, selected through stratified random sampling. Regression analysis was used to explore the direct and interactive effects of SAP and COF on RED. The results indicate that SAP significantly improves RED by increasing agricultural productivity, ensuring environmental sustainability, and promoting income stability for rural farmers. Furthermore, the interaction between SAP and COF reveals that better contextual conditions, such as improved infrastructure and market access, significantly enhance the positive effects of sustainable farming practices on rural development outcomes. The findings underscore the critical need for policy interventions that not only promote sustainable agriculture but also address the contextual challenges that rural farmers face in implementing these practices effectively. The study recommends that government and development agencies strengthen support systems for rural farmers through infrastructure development, market integration, and capacity-building programs. By addressing these factors, sustainable agricultural practices can serve as a pivotal tool for improving rural livelihoods and driving long-term economic development in rural Nigeria. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on sustainable agriculture and rural economic development by providing empirical evidence from the Nigerian context
