11 research outputs found
The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy : A Post-Crisis Period Analysis
No full textThis study has two purposes. First, it attempts to improve the literature on foreign exchange interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies, which have not been studied in details. The Turkish economy in the post-crisis period constitutes a good example in this context. Second, it proposes a new methodology, a time-varying parameter model, to analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange interventions. When the results from such an exercise are compared with the ones obtained from an event-study analysis, we find that the purchase-based interventions seem to be successful especially after the financial markets were stabilized. In that sense, we detect an asymmetry regarding the effectiveness of interventions. About the relationship between the interest rates and the exchange rates, we find that the uncovered interest rate parity condition operates in an unconventional way supporting the views put forth by the new emerging markets literature.Foreign Exchange Interventions, Emerging Markets, Event Study and Time Varying Parameter Model
An Empirical Examination of the Structural Stability of Export Function : The Case of Turkey
No full text
The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets
No full textThis study analyzes both short-run and long-run determinants of the sovereign spreads in a set of 21 emerging countries over the period 1998-2004 utilizing both daily and monthly data and estimate individual country and panel regressions. Our analysis shows that both domestic and international factors affect spreads, where the most important common determinant of the spreads is found to be the risk appetite of foreign investors. By using an event study methodology we find no evidence of impact of the FOMC announcements on spreads. Finally, we analyze whether news regarding domestic politics and announcements of international organizations play a role in the evolution of spreads. Using the postcrisis data of Turkey, we point out an important effect of such news releases.Bond spreads, emerging markets, Fed announcements, political news
Effects of US Interest Rates and News on the Daily Interest Rates of a Highly Indebted Emerging Country : Evidence from Turkey
No full textCauses and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Interventions for the Turkish Economy
No full textForeign exchange rate interventions of the central banks for the emerging market economies are studied only to a limited extent. However, due to the different characteristics of these economies, especially in terms of the exchange rate dynamics, such an analysis can reveal important information. This study analyzes both the causes and the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the post-crisis period. We find that, as officially stated by the Central Bank, the main motivation behind the interventions is the excessive volatility in the exchange rate. Regarding the effectiveness of the interventions, the large and isolated purchase-based interventions seem to be effective in decreasing the volatility in the exchange rate.Foreign Exchange Interventions, Emerging Markets, Probit Analysis, and GARCH Models
Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation
No full textWhat are the consequences of wage negotiations on monetary policy in acountry that is in transition to lower inflation? We show that wageindexation to expected inflation, increased central bank credibility and ahigher frequency of wage adjustments can increase the effect of monetarypolicy and can decrease the cost of disinflation. Important welfare gainscan be obtained with the best possible performance in the pursuit ofinflation targets and with the highest possible precision in inflationforecasts since these actions increase central bank credibility. Wage policieslike the one proposed by the Colombian Constitutional Court can haveimportant negative consequences on output and real wages.wage indexation, disinflation, sacrifice ratio, staggered wage contracts,credibility.
