1,720,975 research outputs found
On the use of partial least squares regression for forecasting large sets of cointegrated time series.
No full textA medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting
Full text linkThis paper considers methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series in a framework where the number
of predictors, N, is too large to apply traditional regression models but not sufficiently large to resort to
statistical inference based on double asymptotics. Our interest is motivated by a body of empirical research
suggesting that popular data-rich prediction methods perform best when N ranges from 20 to 40. In order to
accomplish our goal, we resort to partial least squares and principal component regression to consistently
estimate a stable dynamic regression model with many predictors as only the number of observations, T, diverges. We show both by simulations and empirical applications that the considered methods, especially partial least squares, compare well to models that are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting
A general to specific approach for constructing composite business cycle indicators
Full text linkCombining economic time series with the aim to obtain an indicator for business cycle analyses is an important issue for policy makers. In this area, econometric techniques usually rely on systems with either a small number of series, N, or, at the other extreme, a very large N. In this paper we propose tools to select the relevant business cycle indicators in a â mediumâ N framework, a situation that is likely to be the most frequent in empirical works. An example is provided by our empirical application, in which we study jointly the short-run co-movements of 24 European countries. We show, under not too restrictive conditions, that parsimonious single-equation models can be used to split a set of N countries in three groups. The first group comprises countries that share a synchronous common cycle, a non-synchronous common cycle is present among the countries of the second group, and the third group collects countries that exhibit idiosyncratic cycles. Moreover, we offer a method for constructing a composite coincident indicator that explicitly takes into account the existence of these various forms of short-run co-movements among variables
A new mapping of technological interdependence
No full textHow does technological interdependence affect innovation? We address this question by examining the influence of neighbors’ innovativeness and the structure of the innovators’ network on a sector's capacity to develop new technologies. We study these two dimensions of technological interdependence by applying novel methods of text mining and network analysis to the documents of 6.5 million patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 1976 and 2021. We find that, in the long run, the influence of network linkages is as important as that of neighbor innovativeness. In the short run, however, positive shocks to neighbor innovativeness yield relatively rapid effects, while the impact of shocks strengthening network linkages manifests with delay, even though lasts longer. Our analysis also highlights that patent text contains a wealth of information often not captured by traditional innovation metrics, such as patent citations
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