1,721,038 research outputs found
Forecast horizon of 5th – 6th – 7th long wave and short-period of contraction in economic cycles
Full text linkThe purpose of this essay is to determine the forecast horizon of the fifth, sixth and seventh long wave. As the period of each long wave can change according to the data, it has been used a deterministic approach, based on historical chronologies of USA and UK economies worked out by several scholars, to determine average timing, period and forecast error of future long waves. In addition, the analysis shows that long waves have average upwave period longer than average downwave one. This result is also confirmed by US Business Cycles that have average contractions shorter than expansions phase over time.Forecast Horizon, Long Waves, Kondratieff Waves, Business Cycles, Asymmetric Path
Does Initial Mispricing imply Equilibrium Price Overreaction and Wealth Divide?
No full textWe discover that letting agents pairwise sequentially exchange at "wrong" prices has a robust effect on prices at convergence. If the initial relative price for a good is cheaper than the equilibrium walrasian price due to initial endowments, the initial excess demand effect pushes resource allocation. This paper characterizes the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a symmetric, pure exchange economy with two goods and N agents with uniformly distributed preferences and identical endowments. Relaxing the auctioneer assumption, but maintaining a global price rule, sequentially random pairwise trading at out-of-equilibrium prices is allowed. Initial mispricing implies rationing, determining excess demand (supply) fading away only at convergence, when the price of the initially cheaper (more expensive) good becomes more expensive (cheaper) than the walrasian one. The system converges when the sequential price reaches the walrasian price evaluated at current updated endowments. A perfectly symmetric setting, by initial mispricing and consequent rationed trading, creates asymmetric resource allocations even at convergence, where welfare is less than a standardized 1% lower than the auctioneer Pareto one. This model sketches a possible basis for price over-reaction microfoundation and captures endogenous "wealth divide" among the population, induced by whether agent trading is dominated by good preferences or just by speculation around their prices.We discover that letting agents pairwise sequentially exchange at "wrong" prices has a robust effect on prices at convergence. If the initial relative price for a good is cheaper than the equilibrium walrasian price due to initial endowments, the initial excess demand effect pushes resource allocation.
This paper characterizes the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a symmetric, pure exchange economy with two goods and N agents with uniformly distributed preferences and identical endowments. Relaxing the auctioneer assumption, but maintaining a global price rule, sequentially random pairwise trading at out-of-equilibrium prices is allowed. Initial mispricing implies rationing, determining excess demand (supply) fading away only at convergence, when the price of the initially cheaper (more expensive) good becomes more expensive (cheaper) than the walrasian one. The system converges when the sequential price reaches the walrasian price evaluated at current updated endowments. A perfectly sy
Walrasian Tatônnement by Pairwise Trading: Convergence and Welfare Implications
No full textThis paper characterizes the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a symmetric, pure exchange economy with two goods and N agents with uniformly distributed preferences and identical endowments. Relaxing the auctioneer assumption, but maintaining a global price rule, sequentially random pairwise trading at out-of-equilibrium prices is allowed. Initial mispricing implies rationing, determining excess demand (supply) fading away only at convergence, when the price of the initially cheaper (more expensive) good becomes more expensive (cheaper) than the walrasian one. The system converges when the sequential price reaches the walrasian price evaluated at current updated endowments. A perfectly symmetric setting, by initial mispricing and consequent rationed trading, creates asymmetric resource allocations even at convergence, where welfare is less than a standardized 1% lower than the auctioneer Pareto one.This model sketches a possible basis for price over-reaction microfoundation and captures endogenous "wealth divide" among the population, induced by whether agent trading is dominated by good preferences or just by speculation around their prices
Walrasian Tatonnement with Rationed Pairwise Trading
No full textThis paper characterizes the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a symmetric, pure exchange economy with two goods and N agents with uniformly distributed preferences and identical endowments. Relaxing the auctioneer assumption, but maintaining a global price rule, sequentially random pairwise trading at out-of-equilibrium prices is allowed. Initial mispricing implies rationing, determining excess demand (supply) fading away only at convergence, when the price of the initially cheaper (more expensive) good becomes more expensive (cheaper) than the walrasian one. The system converges when the sequential price reaches the walrasian price evaluated at current updated endowments. A perfectly symmetric setting, by initial mispricing and consequent rationed trading, creates asymmetric resource allocations even at convergence, where welfare is less than a standardized 1% lower than the auctioneer Pareto one.
This model sketches a possible basis for price over-reaction microfoundation and captures endogenous "wealth divide" among the population, induced by whether agent trading is dominated by good preferences or just by speculation around their prices
GEOMETRY OF QUIVER GRASSMANNIANS OF KRONECKER TYPE AND APPLICATIONS TO CLUSTER ALGEBRAS
Full text linkWe study quiver Grassmannians associated with indecomposable representations (of finite dimension) of the Kronecker quiver. We find a cellular decomposition for them and we compute their Betti numbers. As an application, we find a geometric realization for the atomic basis of cluster algebras of type A(1)((1)) found by Sherman and Zelevinsky (who called it the canonical basis) and those of type A(2)((1)) found in an earlier paper of the first author
Predicting strategic change of public research institutions under unstable negative growth
Full text linkThe purpose of this paper is to forecast and analyse, by a demographic perspective, the organizational behaviour of public research labs. The research focuses on the biggest Italian public research body. Demographic models of growth, based on different human resource policies, show the uncertain and retrogressive evolutionary change of Italian public research bodies that would halve their research personnel over the forecast horizon. These results provide vital information to the public management about the weaknesses and environmental threats in order to support decisions for improving the strategic change and survival of public research institutions over time.Organizational Studies, Forecasting, Public Research Institutions, Internal Demography
Editorial on IJCEE special issue on Advances in Computational Economics and Econometrics
No full textA dose-response evaluation of a regional R&D subsidies policy
Full text linkThis paper evaluates the effects of a regional R&D policy in the Italian
province of Trento from 2002 to 2007, an ideal testing ground for the
role of local government and the effectiveness of an R&D place-based
policy. Exploiting a unique database and using a counterfactual dose–
response regression model, we perform an evaluation exercise of policy
targets concerning employment, fixed and intangible assets. We find
that two years after the award date, there exists an inverted u-shaped
relationship between subsidies intensity and impact size: there exists a
range of subsidy doses that is effective in stimulating employment and
intangible assets growth. Instead, we do not find any additionality of the
policy on fixed assets. At longer time span, i.e. four years after the
award, the effect on employment growth persists and we do observe a
mild effect on labor quality for intermediate grants spending. Moreover,
the effect on intangible assets spending growth is also persistent for a
similar interval of R&D subsidies amounts. We discuss the impact
deriving some policy considerations
Metrics for driving political economy of energy and growth
Full text linkEnergy metrics is the development of a whole new theoretical framework for the conception and measurement of energy and economic performances, energy efficiency and productivity improvements with important political economy implications consistent with the best use of all natural and economic resources. The purpose of this research is to present some vital energy indicators based on magnitude and scale of energy weakness, GDP per barrel that is an indicator of energy productivity and barrels per capita that is an indicator of energy efficiency. Energy metrics can support policy maker to monitor energy system of countries in order to design effective strategy and political economy focused to increase the competitive advantage of countries in modern economies.Energy metrics, Energy productivity, Energy efficiency, Energy systems
- …
