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    Predicting risk of livestock depredation by wolves in southwestern Alberta

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    Wolves can potentially prey on all ungulates within their distributional range, including domestic livestock. The potential for conflict between wolves and humans therefore exists especially in rural areas where livestock production is a major economic activity, such as southwestern Alberta. Limited studies have examined factors that predispose livestock to depredation by wolves, and none occurred in southwestern Alberta. The purpose of this study was to determine the spatial relationships between habitat characteristics, human use and wolf depredation on livestock in southwestern Alberta. The goal is to use these characteristics as predictors for areas at risk. We used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the effects of vegetation productivity, geography, and proximity to roads, rivers, and cover on predicting livestock depredation by wolves. Binary logistic regression analyses, ranked using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), were used to determine what variables were best at explaining depredation occurrence. On private lands, greenness and elevation were important variables in the best logistic regression model (y = -22.366 + 0.009(elev) + 0.024(green)). These variables were also significantly different between depredated and random sites (elevation (tcrit = 1.97, p = 0.0035), greenness (P tcrit = 1.97, p = 4.40E-08)). Our results indicate that ranches (and land within an 8-km buffer of them) in proximity to the Rocky Mountains and in areas of higher vegetation productivity are at risk of depredation by wolves

    Temporal predictability of wolf predation on livestock and wolf control in western North America

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    Due primarily to predation on livestock (depredation), some livestock producers oppose wolf (Canis lupus) conservation, which is an important objective for large sectors of the public. Predicting depredation occurrence is difficult, yet necessary in order to prevent it. Better prediction of wolf depredation would also facilitate application of sound depre- dation management actions. In this talk, we analyze temporal trends in wolf depredation occurrence and related management actions. We gathered data from wolf depredation investigations in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, U.S. from 1987 to 2003 and for Alberta, Canada from 1982 to 1996. All information was collected in partnerships with various interest groups, including ranchers and farmers, government authorities, environmental non-governmental organizations and universities. We showed that wolf attacks occurred with a seasonal pattern, reflecting the seasonality of livestock calving, grazing practices, and seasonal variation in energetic requirements of wolf packs. Seasonal wolf attacks were auto- correlated with lags of one year, indicating annual recurrence. Cross-correlation analyses showed that limited wolf control was rapidly employed as a short-term response to depre- dation, and was not designed to decrease wolf depredation at a regional scale or in the long term. Available data allowed for an analysis of the U.S. compensation program, another typical depredation management response. Livestock producers were normally compen- sated within three months following depredation events. The timing of refunding was com- parable or shorter than other compensation programs for carnivore damage employed in other regions. Our findings indicated that compensation programs could be coupled with incentives for proactive management focused on reducing losses during high-depredation seasons
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