1,720,987 research outputs found
Previsione dei rendimenti minimi e massimi di un titolo in borsa mediante un modello multivariato di volatilità
No full textSmoothing down arbitrariness in planning: From SWOT to participatory decision making
Full text linkSWOT analyses are frequently employed in land use planning, the literature proposes improved versions for reducing decision-making arbitrariness, however some drawbacks remain. The purpose of this paper is to design the methodological steps of participatory land use planning through a three-fold SWOT, yielding a strategy that is both feasible and in line with the residents’ vision. First, residents are interviewed with open-ended questions permitting them to freely express their ideas. Institutional players are involved next, through a modified Nominal Group Technique. Prioritization of factors is reached through an automatic algorithm that synthesizes the opinions of residents and institutional players, while avoiding the compensation between low scores for some criteria and high scores for others, so that the community’s view is not overpowered. The prioritization is also based on the interconnection between factors, to ensure feasibility of the strategy indicated. The results of our illustrative application show that this method can lead to community-based entrepreneurial land use. Unexpectedly, in the small area considered, institutional players place greater consideration on the development perspective of local businesses, compared to residents, who display a greater environmental consciousness and commitment to biodiversity conservation
Modelling international monthly tourism demand at the micro destination level with climate indicators and web-traffic data
Full text linkWe investigate if and how climate indicators and web-traffic data may improve the estimates of demand functions’ parameters, considering specific origins and destinations. Overall, augmented demand functions show better fit and more reliable price and income elasticities whether the demand is measured with arrivals or with overnights. However, heterogeneity stemming from the main type of tourism (business vs. cultural vs. sea and sun) affects both the web-based and the climate indicators better describing tourists demand as well as their optimal lags. Our findings highlight the utility of such prompt and territorial detailed information for local policymakers, showing, however, how sensitive different demand segments are to policy intervention
Forecasting and trading on the VIX futures market: A neural network approach based on open to close returns and coincident indicators
Full text linkPrevious work has highlighted the difficulty of obtaining accurate and economically
significant predictions of VIX futures prices. We show that both low prediction errors and
a significant amount of profitability can be obtained by using a neural network model
to predict VIX futures returns. In particular, we focus on open-to-close returns (OTCRs)
and consider intraday trading strategies, taking into account non-lagged exogenous
variables that closely reflect the information possessed by traders at the time when
they decide to invest. The neural network model with only the most recent exogenous
variables (namely, the return on the Indian BSESN index) is superior to an unconstrained
specification with ten lagged and coincident regressors, which is actually a form of
weak efficiency involving markets of different countries. Moreover, the neural network
turns out to be more profitable than either a logistic specification or heterogeneous
autoregressive models
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Introducing the dynamic destination satisfaction method: an analytical tool to track tourism destination satisfaction trends with repeated cross-sectional data
Full text linkThis study introduces a new method, named Dynamic Destination Satisfaction Method (DDSME), to model tourists’ satisfaction with a destination (and its attributes), breaking it down into an individual-level component (linked to the specific individual tourists’ perceptions) and a system-level (time-related) component (common to all the tourists). Moreover, this work develops a matrix “entropy/trend accuracy” that destination managers can use to understand to what extent managing a specific attribute has increased tourists’ satisfaction with the destination over multi-year timespans. We test the innovative method on a large dataset, covering the period 1997-2015 and including almost 0.8 million observations. By doing so, we analyze tourists’ satisfaction with tourism-related sectors and attributes of Italy as an inbound tourism destination and we use the matrix to map out destination attributes over time. The findings indicate that Courtesy, Art and Food are strategic attributes to enhance satisfaction in the long-term
The Influence of Place Attachment and a Certification of Event Sustainability on Residents’ Perceptions of Environmental Impacts and Event Support: An Abstract.
No full textHosting events has become an important tool in stimulating tourism development for local communities. A growing corpus of studies examines different ways of evaluating the environmental sustainability of events using concepts such as the ecological footprint, event greening, and event legacy planning. Existing studies on the environmental impacts of mega events do not consider how residents perceive a certificate of environmental sustainability (CES) and whether such perceptions have an impact on how they evaluate the environmental impacts of the event. Also, despite some studies examining the relationship between tourism impacts and place attachment, no studies have yet established whether place attachment of residents accentuates or attenuates perceptions of environmental impacts of a mega event and the perceived benefits of a CES
A social network analysis of interlocking directorates in the accommodation sector
Full text linkPurpose: By adopting network analytic techniques, this paper aims to examine interlocking directorates among firms operating in the hospitality services sector in seven major Italian tourism destinations. Design/methodology/approach: The authors collected information for all the hotel corporations whose headquarters are located in the seven top Italian destinations: Florence, Milan, Naples, Rimini, Rome, Turin and Venice. Data come from the Analisi Informatizzata delle Aziende Italiane database by Bureau Van Dijk and were used to build a network where the nodes are board members (people) and corporations (hotels) and the links represent the membership of individuals in the boards. From this, with a one-mode projection, the authors obtain two networks: people and corporations. The overall networks’ structures are analysed by assessing their connectivity characteristics. Findings: The findings indicate a relatively low number of interlocks that signals a high degree of fragmentation, showing that the interconnections (both within and between destinations) are scarce. This suggests that in absence of formalized cooperation arrangements, corporations might collaborate informally. Research limitations/implications: This work extends previous research on complexity in business settings, focusing specifically on service companies whose output depends on multiple interactions and helps clarifying coopetition practices of hospitality service firms. Policymaking perspectives are discussed as well as managerial viewpoints. Originality/value: Not many studies of the interlocking directorates in the hospitality domain exist. This paper uses network analysis for a better understanding of the cooperative practices and the formal social structures of the Italian hospitality industry and derives a series of implications important for both researchers and practitioners while also looking at potential future studies
Stochastic simulation of models for expected asset returns based on neural networks: a parallel experience
No full textWe consider nonlinear models for expected asset returns, employing neural network architectures. These models can be interpreted in terms of financial common risk factors. We investigate competing inferential approaches through a simulation experiment, implemented in a parallel environment
Residents’ perceptions of environmental certification, environmental impacts and support for the world expo 2015: the moderating effect of place attachment
Full text linkPurpose: Based on social exchange theory (SET) and signaling theory (ST), this study aims to evaluate how an event’s perceived environmental certification (PEC) by residents, affect their evaluations of environmental impacts and subsequent event support (ES). The moderating role of place attachment (PA) on some of these relationships is also evaluated. Design/methodology/approach: Using partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), a theoretical model is tested on a sample of 450 residents who attended the 2015 Milan World Expo. Findings: PEC positively affects evaluations of positive environmental impacts (PEI) but negatively affects evaluations of negative environmental impacts (NEI). PEC positively affects ES while the relationship between PEC and NEI is moderated by PA. Research limitations/implications: Items used to measure PEC, PEI and NEI are not exhaustive. SET has its own limitations in explaining residents’ ES, which the authors have attempted to attenuate by using ST. Practical implications: Using environmental certification as a communication tool must demonstrate to residents how it reduces negative externalities, rather than focusing only on its positive community benefits. Less well-educated residents had the lowest ES, suggesting the need to use social media to increase ES. Originality/value: This study contributes to understandings of the perceptions of the benefits of event certification by residents, and how this affects their ES. PA moderates the relationship between PEC and NEI
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