1,721,025 research outputs found

    A time-modulated Hawkes process to model the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of countermeasures

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    Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific characteristics of the novel coronavirus, to capture the impact of undetected, asymptomatic and super-diffusive individuals, and especially to take into account time-varying counter-measures and detection efforts. Yet, it is simple enough to allow scalable and efficient computation of the temporal evolution of the epidemic, and exploration of what–if scenarios. Compared to traditional compartmental models, our approach allows a more faithful description of virus specific features, such as distributions for the time spent in stages, which is crucial when the time-scale of control (e.g., mobility restrictions) is comparable to the lifetime of a single infection. We apply the model to the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Italy, shedding light onto several effects related to mobility restrictions introduced by the government, and to the effectiveness of contact tracing and mass testing performed by the national health service

    A unified approach to the performance analysis of caching systems

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    We propose a unified methodology to analyse the performance of caches (both isolated and interconnected), by extending and generalizing a decoupling technique originally known as Che's approximation, which provides very accurate results at low computational cost. We consider several caching policies, taking into account the effects of temporal locality. In the case of interconnected caches, our approach allows us to do better than the Poisson approximation commonly adopted in prior work. Our results, validated against simulations and trace-driven experiments, provide interesting insights into the performance of caching system

    Content placement in networks of similarity caches

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    Similarity caching systems have recently attracted the attention of the scientific community, as they can be profitably used in many application contexts, like multimedia retrieval, advertising, object recognition, recommender systems and online content-match applications. In such systems, a user request for an object o, which is not in the cache, can be (partially) satisfied by a similar stored object o’, at the cost of a loss of user utility. In this paper we make a first step into the novel area of similarity caching networks, where requests can be forwarded along a path of caches to get the best efficiency–accuracy tradeoff. The offline problem of content placement can be easily shown to be NP-hard, while different polynomial algorithms can be devised to approach the optimal solution in discrete cases. As the content space grows large, we propose a continuous problem formulation whose solution exhibits a simple structure in a class of tree topologies. We verify our findings using synthetic and realistic request traces
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