1,721,209 research outputs found
Validation in ACE Models. An Investigation on the CATS Model
No full textIn this paper we deal with some validation experiments on the complex adaptive trivial system (CATS) model proposed in
Gallegati et al. [Gallegati, M., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., Delli Gatti, D., 2003a. Financial fragility, patterns of firms’ entry and exit
and aggregate dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 51, 79–97; Gallegati, M., Delli Gatti, D., Di Guilmi, C.,
Gaffeo, E., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., 2005.Anewapproach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws
and financial fragility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 56, 489–512]. In particular starting from a sample of Italian
firms included in the AIDA database, we perform several ex post validation experiments over the simulation period 1996–2001. In
the experiments, the model parameters have been estimated using actual data and the initial set up consists of a sample of agents
in 1996. The CATS model is then simulated over the period 1996–2001. Using alternative validation techniques, the simulations’
results are ex post validated respect to the actual data
A system for dating long wave phases in economic development
No full textLong wave chronologies are generally established by identifying phase periods associated
with relatively higher and lower average growth rates in the world economy.
However, the long recognition lag typical of the phase-growth approach prevents it
from providing timely information about the present long wave phase period. In this
paper, using world GDP growth rates data over the period 1871–2016, we develop a
system for long wave phases dating, based on the systematic timing relationship
between cyclical representations in growth rates and in levels. The proposed methodology
allows an objective periodization of long waves which is much more timely than
that based on the phase-growth approach. We find a striking concordance of the
established long waves chronology with the dating chronologies elaborated by long
wave scholars using the phase-growth approach, both in terms of the number of high and
low-growth phases of the world economy and their approximate time of occurrence.
In terms of the current long wave debate, our findings suggest that the upswing phase of
the current fifth long wave is still ongoing, and thus the recent financial/economic crisis
only marks a flattening in the current upswing phase of the world economy
Multiscale evaluation of CMIP5 models using wavelet-based descriptive and diagnostic techniques
Full text linkTime–frequency localization of model-data discrepancies may provide useful information for climate models inter-comparison, and especially for the goals of climate model refinement and improvement. CMIP5 models of the long-term historical (1850–2005) run experiment are compared using wavelet-based multiscale descriptive and diagnostic techniques with interesting results. Wavelet coherence maps can visualize the ability of alternative CMPI5 models to capture the observed climate variability at different time scales, while the performance of each CMIP5 model is assessed using goodness of fit relative measures on a scale-by-scale basis. Finally, the plots of wavelet decompositions of CMIP5 models and observed temperature series at different scales can detect and locate model/data disagreements across frequencies and over time, thus providing useful information to researchers for model diagnostic refinement and improvement
Un modello Ricardiano di crescita e distribuzione: un approccio integrato, in “Economia Politica
No full textLong swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective
Full text linkAdopting an international historical perspective, this study aims to identify the main empirical regularities in the long-run growth pattern of government expenditure. The application of parametric and non-parametric analyses to a sample of developed countries observed over the period 1880-2018 allows us to detect two main findings. The first is that, beyond the long-term growth of government expenditures in absolute terms, there is evidence for three expansionary long waves corresponding to the booms before and during the twentieth century's two world wars, along with the 'golden age of public sector intervention'. The latter refers to the decline in cross-country heterogeneity in the trends and composition of absolute growth of government expenditure since the 1960s. The 'ratchet phenomenon' in the pre-WWII period and the shift in ideological focus from market to government failures in the last decades of the twentieth century provide explanations that complement Wagner's law and are consistent with the observed long-term evolution of the growth of government expenditure
Introduction to the special issue on “New macroeconomic perspectives on inequality, credit, and stability”
No full textFinancial production and the subprime mortgage crisis
Full text linkThe causes of the 2007-8 subprime crisis continue to be the subject of much debate, with explanations ranging from de-regulation and fraudulent behavior to global imbalances and rising inequality. However, a comprehensive analysis of the endogenous forces that made the crisis inevitable has yet to be presented. This paper offers a ‘structural’ interpretation of the crisis by synthesising insights from conventional financial economics and the Minskyian and Schumpeterian literature. While highlighting the innovative character of US financial firms evolving from credit
providers to producers of financial commodities, we stress the key features of their path towards financial fragility. We contend that financial institutions were able to achieve progressively unsustainable positions due to the ‘enforced indebtedness’ of US households, which played a functional, albeit secondary, role in the development of the crisis
Firm–bank credit network, business cycle and macroprudential policy
No full textWe present an agent-based model to study firm–bank credit market interactions in different phases of the business cycle. The business cycle is exogenously set, and it can give rise to various scenarios. Compared to other models in this literature strand, we improve the mechanism according to which the dividends are distributed, including the possibility of stock repurchase by firms. In addition, we locate firms and banks over a space and firms may ask credit to many banks, resulting in a complex spatial network. The model reproduces a long list of stylized facts and their dynamic evolution as described by the cross-correlations among model variables. The model allows us to test the effectiveness of rules designed by the current financial regulation, such as the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer. We find that the effectiveness of this rule changes in different business cycle environments and this should be considered by policy makers
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