4,699 research outputs found
Likelihood inference for small variance components
No full textIn this paper, we develop likelihood-based methods for making inferences about the components of variance in a general normal mixed linear model. In particular, we use local asymptotic approximations to construct confidence intervals for the components of variance when the components are close to the boundary of the parameter space. In the process, we explore the question of how to profile the restricted likelihood (REML), show that general REML estimates have a lower probability of being on the boundary than maximum likelihood estimates, and show that the likelihood-ratio test based on the local asymptotic approximation has higher power against local alternatives than the likelihood-ratio test based on the usual chi-squared approximation. We explore the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals by means of a small simulation study
Word length distributions in modern Welsh prose texts.
No full textThis paper examines the distribution of word lengths in 12 prose texts written in modern Welsh (a P-Celtic language). The texts belong to the genres of new articles and Bible translation. For all texts, the observed frequencies can best be fitted by the 1-displaced Singh-Poisson distribution. This differs from published results on a Q-Celtic language (Scottish Gaelic) and suggests a P-celtic/Q-Celtic difference in word-length distribution. Further work is required to investigate other genres of Welsh as well as the other P- and Q-celtic languages
Audiences' willingness to participate in Welsh-language media
No full textPhDContemporary media audiences expect to be able to interact with content, but in a minority language context, audience participation presents challenges related to audiences’ linguistic confidence. This thesis focuses on Wales, where media producers have suggested that audiences are often reluctant to interact with broadcast and online content in Welsh. To begin to understand this unwillingness, and how it might be overcome, the concept of willingness to participate (WTP) is coined as an extension of willingness to communicate (McCroskey & Baer 1985).
First, interviews with producers are analysed qualitatively to identify potential influences on audiences’ WTP. The analysis aims to assess the relative importance of various factors: audiences’ feelings of apprehension, self-perceived competence, language background and Welsh language ability, as well as the modality of participation (oral/written) and the level of demand placed on the audience.
Second, a questionnaire is designed and administered to 358 Welsh speakers, to examine audiences’ perceptions of different opportunities to participate in media content. A path model of WTP is proposed and tested using quantitative data from the survey. The results support the hypothesis that audiences’ apprehension and self-perceived competence predict WTP and that audience response varies according to the media context. While audiences’ Welsh language skills are important in explaining their WTP, other aspects of language background, such as Welsh language acquisition context, are found to be less important.
Third, the survey sample is grouped according to common patterns of WTP, to test whether the above effects are consistent across the population or whether different ‘types’ of audience exist. Using a combination of cluster analysis and thematic analysis of audience comments, four types of audience are proposed and described in detail. Finally, implications for sociolinguistic theory, language maintenance and media production practice are considered and recommendations made.Arts and Humanities Research Counci
Llywelyn ab Iorwerth : the making of a Welsh prince
No full textLlywelyn ab Iorwerth (1173-1140) has long been considered one of the leading heroes of Wales. The life and rule of Llywelyn, known as Llywelyn the Great, is explored in detail in this thesis. The grandson of Owain Gwynedd, ruler of North Wales from 1137-1170, Llywelyn grew up during the period of turmoil following Owain’s death. After wresting control of Gwynedd from his rival family members in the latter decade of the 12th century, he proceeded to gain recognition as the foremost representative of Wales on the political stage.
Although viewed as a legendary hero in Welsh history, poetry and culture, Llywelyn's route to power is more complex than that. The thesis explores the development of the man from rebel and warlord, to leader and spokesman, to statesman, traces the expansion of his hegemony throughout Wales, and discusses the methods he used to gain and maintain power. Particular attention is paid to his use of family, marriage, allies, rivals and the church to achieve his goals. These insights can be derived from the surviving charters, letters, and other acta of Llywelyn and the Royal Chancery of England, the titles accorded therein, Welsh and English chronicles, as well as, occasionally, Venedotian Poetry. Finally, this thesis seeks to address the limitations on Llywelyn’s successes, in light of succeeding events and concludes with a discussion of Llywelyn’s legendary status in the modern world
The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions (HEIS) and their Students on the Welsh Economy : Homogeneity or Heterogeneity?
No full textThis paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010a) for the case of Wales in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Welsh HEIs. When we treat each of the twelve Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) that existed in Wales in 2006 as separate sectors in conventional input-output analysis, their expenditure impacts per unit of final demand appear rather homogenous, with the apparent heterogeneity of their overall impacts being primarily driven by scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals considerable variation in their dependence upon funding from the devolved Welsh Assembly Government and their ability to draw in income/funding from external sources. Acknowledging the binding budget constraint of the Welsh Assembly Government and deriving balanced expenditure multipliers reveals large differences in the net-expenditure impact of HEIs upon the Welsh economy, with the source of variation being the origin of income. Applying a novel treatment of student expenditure impacts, identifying the amount of exogenous spending per student, modifies the heterogeneity of the overall expenditure impacts. On balance this suggests that the impacts of impending budget cut-backs will be quite different by institution depending on their sensitivity to public funding. However, predicting the outcome of budget cutbacks at the margin is problematic for reasons that we identify
A critical evaluation of linguistic minorities from a postmodern perspective: the case of Welsh
No full textMy aim in this thesis is to consider language policy and minority languages from the viewpoint of postmodernism – a theoretical framework that has much to offer beyond mere explanation and support for the concepts of diversity and pluralism. I argue there is a shortage of texts that interrogate language policy from a postmodern perspective – notwithstanding the contributions of a relatively small group of linguists including Pennycook (2000, 2006), Wright (2000, 2004), Cameron (1995) and Edwards (1985-2003). Thus, I combine some arguments from the domain of postmodernism articulated by theorists such as Foucault (1980), Lyotard (1997), and Connor (2004) with other arguments from the fields of language policy, language ideology and minority language rights formulated by theorists such as Phillipson (1993, 2003), Crystal (2000, 2003).In the first chapter I consider how language policy and planning has developed as a subject of academic inquiry since World War II. In the second chapter I focus on a primary objective for language policymakers, namely minority language maintenance. I conclude that characteristics and trends associated with postmodernism are neither wholly supportive nor wholly unsupportive of minority language maintenance. In the third chapter, I concentrate on the minority language Welsh, tentatively concluding that a truly bilingual Wales is not achievable. In this fourth chapter, I analyse findings from my ethnographic research into Welsh language usage in Newport. I tentatively conclude once more that the Welsh Assembly Government’s bilingual objective is unachievable. Finally, I argue that postmodernism is a useful theoretical perspective for academics in the field of language policy and planning
A. O. H. Jarman et G. R. Hughes. A Guide to Welsh Literature, vol. 2. Swansea, Christopher Davies, 1979
No full textFleuriot Léon. A. O. H. Jarman et G. R. Hughes. A Guide to Welsh Literature, vol. 2. Swansea, Christopher Davies, 1979. In: Etudes Celtiques, vol. 18, 1981. pp. 366-367
An HEI-Disaggregated Input-Output Table for Wales
No full textThis paper describes how the education sector of the Welsh Input-Output tables is disaggregated to identify a separate sector for each of Wales’s twelve Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The process draws on accounting and survey data to accurately determine the incomes and expenditures of each institution. In particular we emphasise determining the HEIs incomes source of origin to inform their treatment, as endogenous or exogenous, in subsequent analyses. The HEI-disaggregated Input-Output table provides a useful descriptive snapshot of the Welsh economy and the role of HEIs within it for a particular year, 2006. The table can be used to derive multipliers and conduct various impact studies of each institution or the sector as a whole. The table is furthermore useful to calibrate other multi-sectoral, HEI-disaggregated models of regional economies, including Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models
"Policy Scepticism" and the Impact of Welsh Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region : Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints
No full textThis paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010b) for the case of Wales in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of Welsh HEIs. A "policy scepticism" has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of the publicsector expenditure constraints that are binding under devolution. We show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate regional public sector budget constraints. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity
An HEI-Disaggregated Input-Output Table for Wales*
No full textThis paper describes how the education sector of the Welsh Input-Output tables is disaggregated to identify a separate sector for each of Wales’s twelve Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The process draws on accounting and survey data to accurately determine the incomes and expenditures of each institution. In particular we emphasise determining the HEIs incomes source of origin to inform their treatment, as endogenous or exogenous, in subsequent analyses. The HEI-disaggregated Input-Output table provides a useful descriptive snapshot of the Welsh economy and the role of HEIs within it for a particular year, 2006. The table can be used to derive multipliers and conduct various impact studies of each institution or the sector as a whole. The table is furthermore useful to calibrate other multi-sectoral, HEI-disaggregated models of regional economies, including Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models.Higher Education Institutions, Universities, Input-Output, Wales, Impact study, Multipliers, Devolution.
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