740 research outputs found
Risk, Growth and Poverty: what do we know, what do we need to know?
No full textThis note has three objectives: first, it aims to take stock of the nature of the evidence available and on the links between uninsured risk and shocks on the one hand, and growth and poverty on the other, both at a macro and micro level. Secondly, it makes a number of suggestions of the type of work that could be fruitfully implemented. Finally, it tries to strike a balance between the needs for the policy maker and the requirements for academic scrutiny of evidence, in offering suggestions for priorities in work.
Vulnerability: a micro perspective
No full textHigh downside risk to income and livelihoods is part of life in developing countries. Climatic risks, economic fluctuations, and a large number of individual-specific shocks leave these households vulnerable to severe hardship. The paper explores the links between risk, vulnerability and poverty, taking a micro-level perspective. Risk does not just result in variability in living standards. There is increasing evidence that the lack of means to cope with risk and vulnerability is in itself a cause of persistent poverty and poverty traps. Risk results in strategies that avoid taking advantage of profitable but risky opportunities. Shocks destroy human, physical and social capital limiting opportunities further. The result is that risk is an important constraint on broad-based growth in living standards in many developing countries. It is a relatively ignored part when designing anti-poverty policies and efforts to attain the Millennium Development Goals. The paper discusses conceptual issues, the evidence and the policy implications.
Data for Water deficit and potassium affect carbon isotope composition in cassava bulk leaf material and extracted carbohydrates
No full textThis repository contains data and scripts to reproduce results that are presented in the manuscript: Van Laere, J., Merckx, R., Hood-Nowotny, R., Dercon, G. (2023) Water deficit and potassium affect carbon isotope composition in cassava bulk leaf material and extracted carbohydrates. Front. Plant Sci. 14:1222558 doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.122255
Consumption Growth and Agricultural Shocks in Rural Madagascar
No full textThe aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of rainfall and agricultural shocks on consumption growth in Madagascar. We are also interested in the impact of local endowments in infrastructures and social services on consumption growth. To achieve this goal, a micro model of household consumption growth is estimated thanks to household panel data collected by the Reseau des Observatoires Ruraux (ROR) between 1999 and 2004. Additional data sources include the 2001 communes census organized by the Ilo program of Cornell University. Altogether these different data sources make an unusually rich data set, at least when considered with developing country standards. We use panel data fixed effect estimation technique to remove unobserved household and community level time invariant heterogeneity. We find that production shocks have a substantial impact on consumption growth and we find sign of persistence of rainfall shocks. Roads and education seems to improve household’s consumption growth and remotness decreases it.risks, growth, poverty, Food Security and Poverty,
Political Connections and Social Networks in Targeted Transfer Programmes: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia
No full textIn many developing countries, the beneficiaries of transfer programmes are determined by community-based processes, based on some general targeting rules related to needs. This opens the door for local social and political processes to impact on who gets access. Despite increasingly large scale social protection programmes in Africa, we have limited evidence on the political economy processes involved. We focus on Ethiopia were the local political authorities are in charge of food aid transfers. We investigate whether social networks and political connections matter for access. We find evidence for the hypothesis that the process results in the targeting of households that cannot easily rely on support from relatives or friends. On average, for each additional person the household can rely on in times of need, the probability of this household of obtaining food aid decreases with almost 1 percentage point. We also find strong evidence of political connections and favouritism. Households having close associates holding official positions have, ceteris paribus, more than 10 percent higher probability of obtaining free food than households that are not well connected with powerful households. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that other social networks in the community influence the food aid allocation process. Finally, investigating reverse causality, we find no evidence that social and political networks are affected by the food aid transfer system.Food aid, transfers, political economy, Africa
Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia
No full textFieldwork for this paper was conducted under the Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) project of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program (GL CRSP), funded by the Office of Agriculture and Food Security, Global Bureau, USAID, under grant number DAN-1328-G-00-0046-00, and analysis was underwritten by the USAID SAGA cooperative agreement, grant number HFM-A-00-01-00132-00. Financial support was also provided by the Social Science Research Council's Program in Applied Economics on Risk and Development (through a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation), The Pew Charitable Trusts (through the Christian Scholars Program of the University of Notre Dame), the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), and the Graduate School of Cornell University. Thanks are due to ILRI - Ethiopia for their hospitality and support and to Action for Development (Yabello) for logistical support. We thank Getachew Gebru and our field assistants, Ahmed Ibrahim and Mohammed Ibrahim, for their invaluable assistance in data collection. This is a much revised version of an earlier paper that circulated under the title: "Safety nets or social insurance in the presence of poverty traps? Evidence from southern Ethiopia". We thank Michael Carter, Stefan Dercon, Andrew Foster, Vivian Hoffman, Dhushyanth Raju, Steve Younger and participants at various conferences and seminars for comments that greatly improved this paper. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent any official agency. Any remaining errors are our own.risk, informal insurance, social networks, poverty traps, Ethiopia, Risk and Uncertainty, Z13, I3, O13,
Economic reform, growth and the poor: evidence from rural Ethiopia.
No full textUsing micro-level panel data from villages in rural Ethiopia, the paper uses standard decompositions of income changes and develops a new decomposition of poverty changes to analyse the determinants of growth and poverty changes during a period of economic reform (1989-95). Consumption grew and poverty fell substantially, but the experience was mixed. I find that common and idiosyncratic shocks mattered, but that the main factors driving income changes are relative price changes, resulting in changes in the returns to land, labour, human capital and location. A regression-based decomposition of the changes in poverty shows that the poor have benefited on average more from the reforms than the non-poor households. But the experience of the poor is mixed: one group of the poor in 1989, with relatively good land, labour and location, outperformed all other households, while another group with much poorer endowments and location experienced virtually unchanged and persistent poverty.
Food aid and informal insurance
No full textHouseholds in developing countries use a variety of informal mechanisms to cope with risk, including mutual support and risk-sharing. These mechanisms cannot avoid that they remain vulnerable to shocks. Public programs in the form of food aid distribution and food-for-work programs are meant to protect vulnerable households from consumption and nutrition downturns by providing a safety net. In this paper we look into the extent to which food aid helps to smooth consumption by reducing the impact of negative shocks, taking into account informal risk-sharing arrangements. Using panel data from Ethiopia, we find that despite relatively poor targeting of the food aid, the programs contribute to better consumption outcomes, largely via intra-village risk sharing.risk-sharing, informal insurance, safety nets, food aid
Consumption risk, technology adoption, and poverty traps : evidence from Ethiopia
No full textMuch has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receivingmuch attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices.Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Consumption,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Inequality
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