1,720,971 research outputs found
Early-informational biases in judgement and decision-making: a dual-process and a dynamic-stochastic modelling approach
No full textThe thesis herein explores the relationship between early and late information in judgement and decision-making and tests a quantitative model of this relationship based on contemporary dual-process theory. The first chapter reviews literature regarding early information as a potential biasing factor in judgement and decision-making, the neglect of dual-process theory in the domain and the tendency to rely on static modelling techniques derived from economic theory. The first empirical chapter concludes that a synthesis of a static-economic decision model (prospect theory) with contemporary dual-process theory principles can better predict choice behaviour than either one approach alone. I conclude that dual-process theory provides a strong theoretical basis for understanding the cognitive processes involved in early-informational biases, but also that the quantitative approaches to modelling choice behaviour can provide valuable additional insights. The third chapter acts on this conclusion by developing a dynamic-stochastic choice model (based on a sequential sample process) which reflects four contemporary dual-process theory concepts that are relevant to early-informational biases. Simulation results of the model are presented in order to demonstrate the choice behaviour predicted by this approach. The rest of the thesis is dedicated to empirical studies designed to test the implications of these simulation results and these predicted behaviours. The empirical studies cover a range of domains including biased predecision processing during evidence gathering, stereotype bias in multi-attribute decision-making under time-pressure and the impact of expectation and accuracy motivation on visual-search decision-making. I conclude that the dynamic-stochastic modelling approach demonstrates some clear value in understanding the cognitive processes involved in these domains and the results support the use of contemporary dual-process theory as a framework for understanding judgement and decision-making. Based on this conclusion I outline some future developments for a more nuanced dynamic model including integration with a more sophisticated way of modelling type 2 processing and expansion to account for hypothetical thinking principles. I also suggest future research domains for application of the model such as expert decision-making and multi-alternative decision problems
Cognitive biases in human perception, judgment, and decision making: Bridging theory and the real world
No full textToward an understanding of the influence of cultural background and domain experience on the effects of risk-pricing formats on risk perception
Get PDFRisk information framing can be a powerful tool for aiding the communication of risk and improving decision-making. However, little work has investigated the extent that these framing effects depend on the characteristics of the perceiver. In our study, we examine whether the effects of different risk-pricing formats on risky choices are the same for all individuals, no matter their domain experience or cultural background, or whether there are interactions between these factors. Survey 1 revealed that three risk-pricing formats of the same choice problem resulted in the same individuals making different risky choices (preference reversal); suggesting that risk-perception was distorted by the risk-pricing format manipulation. In Survey 2, the effects of the risk-pricing formats were shown to differ by the participants’ cultural background (Asian vs. European) and the extent of their domain experience. The fact that there were no differences between the cultural or domain experience groups in their overall tendency to select riskier (cf. safer) choices indicates that risk behavior differences between groups are often closely linked to perceptual, rather than simply attitudinal, cognitive processes. The results demonstrate the complex, interactive cognitive processes that are used to encode risk information, involving the framing of the information and the cultural background and previous experiences of the individual. We conclude that it is important to consider the characteristics of the individual (e.g., culture, domain experience, etc.) when manipulating risk-information framing with the aim of improving their risk communication
Selective information sampling: cognitive coherence in evaluation of a novel item
No full textThis study investigates the amount and valence of information selected during single item evaluation. One hundred and thirty-five participants evaluated a cell phone by reading hypothetical customers reports. Some participants were first asked to provide a preliminary rating based on a picture of the phone and some technical specifications. The participants who were given the customer reports only after they made a preliminary rating exhibited valence bias in their selection of customers reports. In contrast, the participants that did not make an initial rating sought subsequent information in a more balanced, albeit still selective, manner. The preliminary raters used the least amount of information in their final decision, resulting in faster decision times. The study appears to support the notion that selective exposure is utilized in order to develop cognitive coherence
Emotional experiences and motivating factors associated with fingerprint analysis
No full textIn this study, we investigated the emotional and motivational factors involved in fingerprint analysis in day-to-day routine case work and in significant and harrowing criminal investigations. Thematic analysis was performed on interviews with 13 experienced fingerprint examiners from a variety of law enforcement agencies. The data revealed factors relating to job satisfaction and the use of skill. Individual satisfaction related to catching criminals was observed; this was most notable in solving high profile, serious, or long-running cases. There were positive emotional effects associated with matching fingerprints and apparent fear of making errors. Finally, we found evidence for a need of cognitive closure in fingerprint examiner decision-making
Cognitive and contextual influences in determination of latent fingerprint suitability for identification judgments
No full textWe examined forensic fingerprint examiners' suitability determinations of latent fingerprints comparing situations in which the latent is assessed solo (in isolation) versus situations in which it is presented alongside a comparison (matching or non-matching) exemplar print. The presence of a non-matching comparison exemplar led examiners to be more inclined to draw the conclusion that the latent was suitable for comparison compared to when the latent was presented solo. This effect persisted even when the latent presented was highly unsuitable for comparison. The presence of a matching comparison exemplar led examiners to be less likely to decide that the latent was suitable and more likely to decide the latent was questionable compared to solo analysis. This effect persisted even when the latent presented was highly suitable, suggesting a strong main effect. Knowledge of another examiner's previous determination that the latent was unsuitable was found to increase the likelihood that the examiner would conclude that the latent was unsuitable. However, knowledge of a previous “suitable” determination by another examiner did not increase the likelihood of a “suitable” conclusion by examiners. The finding that effects were weaker, although not entirely removed, in those with IAI certification suggests that training may be an appropriate route for reducing the effect of contextual influence and bias in suitability determinations. It was also shown that latent prints that were previously classed as "unsuitable" in a non-biasing context, continued to be judged to be "unsuitable" in a strongly biasing context (a major case in which a previous examiner was purported to have made an Individualization)
Why do financial traders tend to sell losing positions when the price reaches a round number?
No full textTo what extent does weather influence investors' susceptibility to the disposition effect?
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The prospect of a perfect ending: Loss aversion and the round-number bias
Get PDFStudies across a range of domains have shown that individuals tend to focus on round numbers as cognitive reference points; a so-called left-digit effect. We explain this effect by combining analog numerical heuristics with prospect theory in order to develop an analog value function that predicts the key characteristics of the left-digit effect. Most importantly, this value function predicts an unreported phenomenon, namely; that the left-digit effect will be more pronounced in situations involving losses (cf. gains). We confirm this prediction in both a laboratory experiment regarding hypothetical investments and analysis of buy-sell imbalances in over 15 million trades by investors in a financial market. We conclude that our analog value function is a promising explanation for the left-digit effect. Furthermore, we suggest that interventions aimed at reducing costly buy-sell imbalances in financial markets should focus on the decisions made by investors when they are facing loss
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