1,721,515 research outputs found
Effect and Improvement Areas for Port State Control Inspections to Decrease the Probability of Casualty
Full text linkThis report is the fourth part of a PhD project called "The Econometrics of Maritime Safety – Recommendations to Enhance Safety at Sea" and is based on 183,000 port state control inspections and 11,700 casualties from various data sources. Its overall objective is to provide recommendations to improve safety at sea. The fourth part looks into measuring the effect of inspections on the probability of casualty on either seriousness or casualty first event to show the differences across the regimes. It further gives a link of casualties that were found during inspections with either the seriousness of casualties and casualty first events which reveals three areas of improvement possibilities to potentially decrease the probability of a casualty – the ISM code, machinery and equipment and ship and cargo operations.maritime safety;correspondence analysis;binary logistic regression;probability of casualty;improvement;Port State Control Effectiveness;casualty first events;detention;port state control deficiences;target factor
Does a new football coach lead to better results?
No full textIn this paper we study whether the change of a manager and/or the line-up lead to better
performance. We use data from the Dutch football competition. In order to model the various
data we use an ordered probit and two binary probit models. Overall we have not found a
uniform strategy in terms of overlap in line-up that leads to improved performance. In some
cases a strategy in terms of overlap in line-up leads to improved performance, while the same
strategy could lead to bad performance for another team. However there is some evidence that changing line-up affect performance
From first submission to citation: an empirical analysis
No full textThe academic publication process consists of al least two stages. The first stage covers the conception of a paper, its submission to a journal, possible revisions due to comments made by (anonymous) reviewers, and acceptance of the manuscript, among other aspects. The second stage concerns the eventual publication of the paper and its academic life-cycle,which is usually measured by a citation score. Next to describing this process in some detail, this paper describes the results of an empirical analysis of a database which includes data on a range of aspect of the publication process. Descriptive statistics give insights as to how long it takes (on average) before the editor returns to the author with the reviews, and also how long it takes for the editor to make a final decision on acceptance, based on a revised manuscript. Econometric models are used to see if, for example, the number of pages, the number of pages, the number of authors, and the number of previous rejections have an impact on these times. Also, it is examined if a special issue makes a difference. Finally, it is studied if the editorial process and observable properties of the paper have any effect on the number of citations, which can be seen as a measure of quality.
The primary demand for beer in the Netherlands; an application of ARMAX model specification
No full textThe central issue in the application of econometric and time series analysis (ETS) to market response models is the model-building process. The author proposes a specification strategy for ETS modeling and applies it to the primary demand for beer in The Netherlands
Forecasting 1 to h steps ahead using partial least squares.
Full text linkThis paper proposes a methodology to jointly generate optimal forecastsfrom an autoregression of order p for 1 to h steps ahead. The relevant model isa Partial Least Squares Autoregression, which is positioned in between a singleAR(p) model for all forecast horizons and different AR models for differenthorizons. Representation, estimation and forecasting using the new model arediscussed. An illustration for US industrial production shows the merits ofthe methodology.forecasting;autoregression;partial least squares
Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics
Full text linkThis paper presents the results of a survey held amongst all editorial board members of six journals. These journals in part focus on the development of models and methods for forecasting. The key question was whether one believes that the forecasting discipline has made progress in the last three decades. Amongst various results, the most important one is that modest progress has been made, although the profession seems far from satisfied. This progress appears to be mainly due to the increase in computing power and the fact that we are better able to incorporate important data features in our models. Additionally, progress could have been faster if we somehow were to include the opinions of experts. These last two findings define two important topics on the research agenda.forecasting;models and methods for forecasting
Forecasting in marketing
Full text linkWith the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere. This chapter deals with techniques to derive forecasts from these models. Due to the intrinsic non-linear nature of these models, these techniques draw heavliy on simulation techniques.marketing;forecasting;unobserved heterogeneity;Koyck model;attraction model;Bass model
Forecasting Sales
Full text linkThis chapter deals with forecasting sales (in units or money), where an explicit distinction is made between sales of durable goods (computers, cars, books) and sales of utilitarian products (SKU level in supermarkets). Invariably, sales forecasting amounts to a combination of statistical modeling and an expert’s touch. Models for durable goods sales are usually based on (variants of) the Bass model, while SKU sales forecasts are typically based on simple extrapolation methods. Forecast evaluation is not standard due to the interaction of model and expert.diffusion;SKU-level sales;durable goods;human judgment;sales forecasting
How to deal with intercept and trend in pratical cointegration analysis?
No full textThis note gives a few practical guidelines for cointegration analysis. The focus is on testing the cointegration rank in a VAR model and on how an intercept and a trend should be incorporated in the model. Only two cases appear relevant for most economic data.cointegration analysis;trend;VAR model;intercept
Experts adjusting model-based forecasts and the law of small numbers
No full textThis paper conjectures that the behaviour of experts who adjust statistical-model-based forecasts obeys the Law of Small Numbers [LSN]. To put this hypothesis to an empirical test, I propose a simple but effective methodology. It is applied to a database containing information on many experts and their adjustments to forecasts of monthly sales of a variety of products. I find strong evidence in support of the LSN. Implications of this finding are discussed.law of small numbers;model-based forecast;expert adjustment
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