352 research outputs found
The challenges of model based policy advice
No full textIn policy consultation, communicating model results to administration and policy makers has always proven to be a challenge for scientists. Many of the relevant preconditions for effective and successful policy advice are aggravated when results are based on the simultaneous use of a multitude of different models. This paper identifies key issues – e.g., relations to administration; correct identification of prevailing objectives of all agents involved; ability to run scenarios ‘in time’ - and discusses strategies for successful communication based on the experiences of the vTI model network. Specific attention is paid to the issue of communicating ‘conflicting’ results of different models: while often seen as a source for scientific insight, such ‘inconsistencies’ have proven to be a major obstacle for acceptance in a non-academic institutional setting. The experiences, as well as the literature, point specifically to the importance of tight linkages between modellers and policy makers, and the need to abandon decisionist or technocratic approaches of policy advice in favour of pragmatic approaches stressing the bilateral nature of communication.model network, policy advice, Agricultural and Food Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
Ein "Schutzengel" für Milcherzeuger?
No full textJeder zweite Milcherzeuger in den USA hat seine Marge abgesichert. Ginge das auch in Deutschland? Was es bringt und wie viel es kostet, haben Raphaela Ellßel und Dr. Frank Offermann vom Thünen-Institut nachgerechnet
Hohe Zufriedenheit bei Bio-Bauern
No full textDie Gewinne der Biobetriebe sind in den letzten Jahren zum Teil deutlich gestiegen. Wie zufrieden die Biobauern mit ihrer Situation sind, beschreiben Hiltrud Nieberg, Jürn Sanders und Frank Offermann vom Institut für Betriebswirtschaft des vTI in Braunschwei
Key issues of linking models for policy impact assessment in agriculture
No full textAgricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
Dealing with low‐probability shocks: The role of selected heuristics in farmers’ risk management decisions
No full textDealing with weather extremes is a major challenge for farmers and often comes at high costs for public budgets. Therefore, we investigate the influence of specific simplified decision rules, so-called heuristics, on farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting themselves against low-probability and high-consequence weather shocks. To this end, we conducted a framed field experiment with 237 farmers in Germany, using incentivized lottery-based multiple price lists. We explored the effects of different heuristics within the prospect theory framework. Our results indicate that, on average, farmers exhibit risk-loving behavior towards monetary losses, leading to a low WTP for risk mitigation. The results also suggest that the imitation heuristic, shock experience heuristics, and the threshold of concern heuristic influence farmers’ WTP. Farmers specifically imitate successful farmers when these are risk-loving. The lack of personal experience with low-probability events induces farmers to assign less weight to low-probability shocks, which lowers their WTP. Farmers also systematically assign less weight to low-probability shocks that they consider “too rare to be concerned about.” Accounting for the use of these heuristics can help design improved risk management instruments and policies
Impact of the EU Common Agricultural Policy on Organic in Comparison to Conventional Farms
No full textFarms in the EU receive considerable support from the Common Agricultural Policy. Support for organic and conventional farms is analysed, covering a wide range of different Common Agricultural Policy support measures. The current design of the Common Market Organisations tends to disadvantage organic farming systems, although developments in the last two CAP reforms (year 1992 and 2000) and the latest reform (2003) have reduced the discrimination of extensive farming systems and now provide opportunities to introduce measures to meet some of the needs of organic farms.agricultural policy, farm accounts, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18, Q12,
Ertragsdaten und Anbauflächen in Deutschland seit 1979 auf harmonisierter Landkreisebene. Update bis 2024.
No full textIn this publication we provide a dataset with crop yield and area for Germany from 1979 to 2024. This data set is an update to https://doi.org/10.3220/DATA20231117103252-0. The data are spatially resolved to 397 districts with an average size of 900 km2 and include the crops spring barley, winter barley, grain maize, silage maize, oats, potatoes, winter rape, rye, sugar beet, triticale and winter wheat. The crop-yield data cover on average about 9.5 million hectares per year and 80% of Germany’s total arable land. The final dataset contains 220,850 yield and area data points. These were obtained by collecting and digitizing crop data from multiple statistical sources and transforming the data to match the district boundaries in 2020. A comprehensive description and validation of the dataset up to 2021 is published in Scientific Data by Duden et al. (2024); https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-02951-8. We therefore recommend that you also refer the Scientific Data article when using the dataset. Suggested citation: The data is based on Offermann und Duden (2025), which provides an update to the data publication by Duden et al. (2024).In dieser Veröffentlichung stellen wir einen Datensatz mit Erträgen und Anbauflächen für Deutschland von 1979 bis 2024 zur Verfügung. Dieser Datensatz stellt eine Aktualisierung von https://doi.org/10.3220/DATA20231117103252-0 dar. Die Daten sind räumlich aufgelöst auf 397 Landkreise mit einer durchschnittlichen Größe von 900 km2 und beinhalten die Fruchtarten Sommergerste, Wintergerste, Körnermais, Silomais, Hafer, Kartoffeln, Winterraps, Roggen, Zuckerrüben, Triticale und Winterweizen. Sie umfassen im Durchschnitt etwa 9,5 Mio. ha pro Jahr und damit 80 % der gesamten deutschen Ackerfläche. Der finale Datensatz enthält 220.850 Datenpunkte. Die Daten wurden aus mehreren statistischen Quellen gesammelt und digitalisiert und anschließend von uns transformiert, so dass sie alle räumlich harmonisiert für die Landkreisgrenzen von 2020 vorliegen. Eine umfassende Beschreibung und Validierung des Datensatzes bis 2021 ist publiziert in Scientific Data (Duden et al., 2024) ; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-02951-8. Wir empfehlen daher, bei einer Verwendung des Datensatzes auch auf den Scientific Data-Artikel zu verweisen. Empfohlene Zitierweise: Die Ertragsdaten basieren auf Offermann und Duden (2025), einer Aktualisierung der Datenpublikation von Duden et al. (2024)
IMPACT OF THE 2003 CAP REFORM ON ORGANIC FARMING IN GERMANY
No full textThe financial performance of organic and conventional farming is highly influenced by the EU direct payment policy. While organic farms receive considerable support from agrienvironmental programmes, the design of the first pillar put organic farming at a disadvantage in the past. The 2003 CAP reform has changed this situation particularly by decoupling direct payments and reducing price support. This paper has therefore the aim to identify and assess the impact of the CAP reform on the relative profitability and production structure of organic farms in Germany. The statistical analysis of FADN data from the years 2003/04 and 2006/07 suggests that differences in payments from the first pillar decreased, affecting positively the relative profitability of organic farms. A survey among German organic farmers revealed however that only a minority attributes substantial changes in profits to the CAP reform and decoupling, respectively. The outcomes of this investigation suggest that organic farmers still require more specific information and advice in order to use the new possibilities given through decoupling.organic farming, decoupling, relative profitability, CAP Health Check, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18,
Impacts of Decoupling and Milk Quota Trade on the French and German Dairy Sectors
No full textThis paper analyses the impacts of the 2003 CAP reform and of milk quota trade at the national level. To this end, a mathematical programming model has been further developed for Germany and extended to other main milk-producing EU member states like France. Homogeneous farm groups are built on the basis of EU Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show that quotas will be fully used in both countries if quota trade is possible. A clear tendency in the reallocation of production from small towards large farms can be seen in all regions for France. In Germany, the redistribution of direct payments induced by the implementation of the regional scheme of decoupled payments leads to higher reductions of income in dairy & beef farms than in France.2003 CAP reform, milk quota trade, model, mathematical programming, International Relations/Trade,
Relative pose estimation from panoramic images using a hybrid neural network architecture
No full textOffermann L. Relative pose estimation from panoramic images using a hybrid neural network architecture. Scientific Reports . 2024;14(1): 25246.Camera-based relative pose estimation (RPE) localizes a mobile robot given a view at the current position and an image at a reference location. Matching the landmarks between views is critical to localization quality. Common challenges are appearance changes, for example due to differing illumination. Indirect RPE methods extract high-level features that provide invariance against appearance changes but neglect the remaining image data. This can lead to poor pose estimates in scenes with little detail. Direct RPE methods mitigate this issue by operating on the pixel level with only moderate preprocessing, but invariances have to be achieved by different means. We propose to attain illumination invariance for the direct RPE algorithm MinWarping by integrating it with a convolutional neural network for image preprocessing, creating a hybrid architecture. We optimize network parameters using a metric on RPE quality, backpropagating through MinWarping and the network. We focus on planar movement, panoramic images, and indoor scenes with varying illumination conditions; a novel dataset for this setup is recorded and used for analysis. Our method compares favourably against the previous best preprocessing method for MinWarping, edge filtering, and against a modern deep-learning-based indirect RPE pipeline. Analysis of the trained hybrid architecture indicates that neglecting landmarks in a direct RPE framework can improve estimation quality in scenes with occlusion and few details. © 2024. The Author(s)
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