187 research outputs found
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First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble
No full textClimate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies
Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture
No full textBased on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Water Resources, River Flow
Navajo textiles: the Crane Collection at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science
No full textIncludes bibliographical references and index.An account of the historical context of Navajo weavings in the Crane Collection at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science--one of the largest collections in the world. Anthropologists and indigenous artists explore the Navajo rug trade in mid-nineteenth century and changes in Navajo textile market.--Provided by publisher.Introduction: consultations, collaborations, and curation by Navajo weavers, a celebration and history / by Ann Lane Hedlund -- Francis and Mary Crane and the making of a Navajo textile collection / by Louise I. Stiver -- Changing markets of Navajo weaving / by Laurie D. Webster -- Crossroads and Navajo weaving: a weaver's narrative / by D.Y. Begay -- A weaver's path: from generations of traditional artistry to blending new innovations / by Lynda Teller Pete
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Editors’ Note: New Publication Policies at Cliodynamics
No full textAuthor(s): Hoyer, Daniel; Reddish, Jenny; Turchin, Pete
Jere Nash Interview with William D. (Billy) Mounger (Part 3 of 3)
No full textInterview conducted by author Jere Nash with Mississippi Republican Party financier Billy Mounger in the process of writing Mississippi Politics: The Struggle for Power, 1976-2006. Topics discussed include 1978 senate primary race between Thad Cochran and Charles Pickering; Trent Lott; Charles Evers; African American members of the Republican Party in Mississippi; 1979 gubernatorial race between Gil Carmichael and William Winter; Leon Bramlett; John Bell Williams; Kirk Fordice; Pete Johnson; leadership of the Republican Party in Mississippi; Ronald Reagan\u27s 1980 campaign; Haley Barbour; Gerald Ford campaign; Jon Hinson; and Mounger\u27s appointment to Board of Visitors of West Point Academy
Simulation of salinity effects on past, present, and future soil organic carbon stocks
No full textSoil organic carbon (SOC) models are used to predict changes in SOC stocks and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from soils, and have been successfully validated for non-saline soils. However, SOC models have not been developed to simulate SOC turnover in saline soils. Due to the large extent of salt-affected areas in the world, it is important to correctly predict SOC dynamics in salt-affected soils. To close this knowledge gap, we modified the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to simulate SOC turnover in salt-affected soils, using data from non-salt-affected and salt-affected soils in two agricultural regions in India (120 soils) and in Australia (160 soils). Recently we developed a decomposition rate modifier based on an incubation study of a subset of these soils. In the present study, we introduce a new method to estimate the past losses of SOC due to salinity and show how salinity affects future SOC stocks on a regional scale. Because salinity decreases decomposition rates, simulations using the decomposition rate modifier for salinity suggest an accumulation of SOC. However, if the plant inputs are also adjusted to reflect reduced plant growth under saline conditions, the simulations show a significant loss of soil carbon in the past due to salinization, with a higher average loss of SOC in Australian soils (55 t C ha(-1)) than in Indian soils (31 t C ha(-1)). There was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between SOC loss and osmotic potential. Simulations of future SOC stocks with the decomposition rate modifier and the plant input modifier indicate a greater decrease in SOC in saline than in non-saline soils under future climate. The simulations of past losses of SOC due to salinity were repeated using either measured charcoal-C or the inert organic matter predicted by the Falloon et al. equation to determine how much deviation from the Falloon et al. equation affects the amount of plant inputs generated by the model for the soils used in this study. Both sets of results suggest that saline soils have lost carbon and will continue to lose carbon under future climate. This demonstrates the importance of both reduced decomposition and reduced plant input in simulations of future changes in SOC stocks in saline soils.Raj Setia, Pete Smith, Petra Marschner, Pia Gottschalk, Jeff Baldock, Vipan Verma, Deepika Setia and Jo Smit
Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from Cropland Soils – Climate Opportunities and Threats
No full textEditorial: Climate science, solutions and services for net zero, climate-resilient food systems
No full textCM Elliptic Curves: Volcanoes, Reality and Applications, Part II
No full textLet be positive integers, and let be the discriminant of
an order in an imaginary quadratic field . When , the first
author determined the fiber of the morphism over
the closed point corresponding to and showed that all
fibers of the map over were
connected. Here we complement this prior work by addressing the most difficult
cases . These works provide all the information needed
to compute, for each positive integer , all subgroups of
, where is a number field of degree and
is an elliptic curve with complex multiplication.Comment: 37 page
Locative arts.
No full textThe author discusses the field of locative arts, focusing on works and interests from 2003 to 2004. An overview is presented of the artistic project types found within this field, and the author considers in depth a number of issues such as how projects are shaped by their reliance on positioning technologies and the importance of the social within this area of practice
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