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The impact of trade liberalization on Senegal: An assessment of the potential impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Senegalese Households using a Single country CGE analysis
Get PDFThis study developed a single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model including a Household disaggregation in order to measure the potential impacts of two scenarios, the first on full liberalization and the second on the potential implementation of Economic partnership agreement (EPA) between European Union and Ecowas. The classical indicators of poverty and inequality were also computed in addition to the equivalent variation measure in order to capture the effects of the implementation of these policies on Senegalese households. The results show that the EPA scenario seems to be more beneficial in term of welfare variation than the full liberalization scenario. However, the urban households seem to benefit more. The analysis of the inequality indicators shows whatever the scenario considered a decrease of the income inequality. However the EPA scenario again seems to be more beneficial. Lastly, concerning the poverty indicators, the two scenarios envisaged did not seem to reduce poverty
The impact of trade liberalization on Senegal: An assessment of the potential impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Senegalese Households using a Single country CGE analysis
No full textThis study developed a single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model including a Household disaggregation in order to measure the potential impacts of two scenarios, the first on full liberalization and the second on the potential implementation of Economic partnership agreement (EPA) between European Union and Ecowas. The classical indicators of poverty and inequality were also computed in addition to the equivalent variation measure in order to capture the effects of the implementation of these policies on Senegalese households. The results show that the EPA scenario seems to be more beneficial in term of welfare variation than the full liberalization scenario. However, the urban households seem to benefit more. The analysis of the inequality indicators shows whatever the scenario considered a decrease of the income inequality. However the EPA scenario again seems to be more beneficial. Lastly, concerning the poverty indicators, the two scenarios envisaged did not seem to reduce poverty
Regional trade patterns across Africa
No full textChapter 3, by Anatole Goundan and Cheickh Sadibou Fall, addresses regional trade, discussing Africa-wide and regional trade patterns. The chapter reviews intra-regional trade performance for the continent as a whole and for its major regional economic communities (RECs). It then proceeds to analyze the direction of trade, examine the role of individual RECs and countries in intra-regional trade, and discuss the key commodities in intra-regional trade
Africa agriculture trade monitor 2018
No full textThis report has presented an examination of the recent trends, current status, and future outlook of African agricultural trade in global and regional markets.Non-PRIFPRI1; ReSAKSS; AGRODEPAFR; MTI
Economy-Wide Effects of Agriculture Technology Innovations in Burkina Faso
Get PDFIn this study, we develop an economy wide model for Burkina Faso to assess the most promising opportunities for technological innovations to enhance maize production and productivity and their economywide effects. We simulate the implementation of two agricultural technological innovations using a customized Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. One innovation is an improvement of famers’ efficiency, i.e. operating on the production frontier (typology scenario). The other shifts the frontier itself and involves the introduction of a new cultivar (crop scenario). The model has been made agriculture-focused through the following features: separate agriculture and non-agriculture labor markets, separate urban and rural representative household groups, including welfare analysis and the imperfect integration of land markets, i.e. the land market is split into agroecological zones (AEZs). The CGE model is a single-country, multi-sector, multi-market model and solved for multiple periods in a recursive manner, ten years in the case of Burkina Faso. The CGE model is calibrated using a 2013 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The SAM has several interesting features with regards to agricultural modelling and highlights the focus crops for Burkina Faso and particularly maize, which is the focus crop of this study. The results showed prospects of gains for the economy with the introduction of technological innovations in the maize value chain in Burkina Faso. Welfare analyses performed showed welfare gains for all household profiles studied. In other words, the introduction of innovations in the maize value chain seems to be pro-poor. Finally, the study found that a total increase of about 2% of public expenditure in this sector over 10 years is required to achieve the simulated results
Modelling the economy-wide impact of technological innovation and mapping agricultural potential: The case of Burkina Faso
No full textIn this study, we develop an economy wide model for Burkina Faso to assess the most promising opportunities for technological innovations to enhance maize production and productivity and their economywide effects. We simulate the implementation of two agricultural technological innovations using a customized Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. One innovation is an improvement of famers' efficiency, i.e. operating on the production frontier (typology scenario). The other shifts the frontier itself and involves the introduction of a new cultivar (crop scenario). The model has been made agriculture-focused through the following features: separate agriculture and non-agriculture labor markets, separate urban and rural representative household groups, including welfare analysis and the imperfect integration of land markets, i.e. the land market is split into agroecological zones (AEZs). The CGE model is a single-country, multi-sector, multi-market model and solved for multiple periods in a recursive manner, ten years in the case of Burkina Faso. The CGE model is calibrated using a 2013 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The SAM has several interesting features with regards to agricultural modelling and highlights the focus crops for Burkina Faso and particularly maize, which is the focus crop of this study. The results showed prospects of gains for the economy with the introduction of technological innovations in the maize value chain in Burkina Faso. Welfare analyses performed showed welfare gains for all household profiles studied. In other words, the introduction of innovations in the maize value chain seems to be pro-poor. Finally, the study found that a total increase of about 2% of public expenditure in this sector over 10 years is required to achieve the simulated results
Africa in global agricultural trade
No full textIt is commonly agreed that trade integration can contribute to the acceleration of economic growth and to poverty alleviation. This is one of the main reasons why African leaders committed at Malabo in 2014 to tripling intra-Africa trade in agricultural commodities and services by 2025. This trade commitment package includes the establishment of a continental free trade area and a continental common external tariff. Its objective is also “to increase and facilitate investment in markets and trade infrastructure” (AUC 2014, 5)
Comprehensive Livestock Driven Typology for Food and Nutrition Security in Mali
Get PDFTo guide the selection and design of appropriate interventions for increasing the production and consumption of animal-sourced foods, in this paper we propose a spatial typology based on a comprehensive food and nutrition security (FNS) framework for livestock in Mali. This framework has four dimensions or pillars, i.e. potential, availability, access and utilization. Using data for each of the four dimensions, efficiency and average performance in terms of livestock production, access and utilization are estimated at sub-national levels. Whereas nutritional status will be used to set priority levels, measure of efficiency is used to guide locations where appropriate investments in livestock will produce more benefits in terms of food security, employment and poverty alleviation. To assess production potential for the livestock sector, we use the stochastic frontier framework (SFF) which allows for the estimation of both livestock efficiency and its drivers
What are the expected effects of trade policies on Poverty in Senegal? a CGE Micro-Macro Analysis
Get PDFThere is an ongoing debate on the role of trade policies in alleviating poverty. Indeed trade liberalization is supposed to improve economic growth (Dollar and Kraay, 2002; Irwin and Tervio, 2002; Frankel and Romer, 1999). Focusing on poverty alleviation and income inequalities, the positive impact of trade is less consensual. Some works have defended the idea that trade integration implies poverty reduction (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 2002; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Anderson and Martin, 2005), but most recent studies have not reached this general conclusion, pointing that the link between trade and poverty can be puzzling (Winters, McCulloh and McKay, 2004; Hertel and Winters, 2006; Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2007; Harrison, 2007). According to these studies, trade policies bring contrasted effects on poverty but region or sector-specific conclusions can be done. This paper aims at assessing the expected effects of trade policies on poverty reduction in Senegal. Especially, the main issue is to point out the distributional effects of trade policies among households, following regional, sectoral, occupational and skills features. Our study consists in building a single-CGE model, adapted to poor countries and doing counter-factual micro-simulation analysis to underline the income and distributional effects of tariff-reducing under different scenarios. Thus, in order to match with the Senegalese economy, our CGE-model framework arises from two main issues: treating households heterogeneity and modeling the labor market in order to reflect at the closest a dual-dual economy (Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). This concept refers to the double dichotomy between urban and rural areas and formal and informal sectors. It implies to distinguish urban from rural sectors and formal from informal activities. To treat the first issue, we disaggregate households as most as possible, following
all available criteria in the all set of Senegalese households surveys, namely by region
and milieu of living, marital status and number of children, occupation and degree of
qualification. This gives us 265 representative households that allow us to work in a
combined micro-macro simulation framework. By this way, it is possible to develop a
model in which different kinds of workers can be modeled and thus address our second
issue (namely modeling a dual-dual economy). Indeed, many of the classical CGE
studies in international trade work with simple sets of assumptions about the labor
market that are not appropriated to developing countries, assuming especially fixed or
uniform labor supply. Thus, to address this, our CGE model presents a mechanism
which endogenizes labor supply and a labor-market segmentation which distinguish
the unskilled from the skilled workers. This allows us to capture the skill-specific
labor market effects of shifts in international trade patterns. Besides, the distinction
between workers attached to the rural versus the urban sector is important, since
regional mobility must be taken into account. Finally, we take into account mobility
between formal and informal sectors because productivity and wages differentials imply
different effects of trade policies. As in most CGE models, formal and informal labor are
used in separate sectors.3 We decide to adopt a modeling that is inspired from Stifel and
Thorbecke (2003), but design it in order to match with our sectoral decomposition (34
sectors in the economy, allocated into formal/informal and urban/rural ones, instead
of 4 representative sectors in Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). As underlined by Boeters
and Savard (2011), this kind of modeling brings new issues such as the need to obtain
labor supply estimates that can be used in our combined micro-macro model.4
After the model is designed and calibrated on a SAM built for the year 2006 (Fall,
2011), different scenarios of trade policies are applied. The first scenario is an EPA
agreement between Senegal and Europe. Indeed, the EU and its ACP partners were
unable to conclude the EPA negotiations as planned on January 1st 2008 and this is still
an ongoing process. The second scenario is full liberalization. These trade policies have
already been assessed in the literature, but mainly using multi-countries CGE models
(Berisha-Krasniqi et al., 2008; Fall et al., 2007) or using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (Cissokho and Diop, 2011). Our micro-macro framework
is complementary and necessary to evaluate the impact in terms of poverty alleviation
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The Impact of domestic remittances on Households' Income Distribution in a context of Global Food Crisis
Get PDFThis paper aims to assess how internal urban-rural remittances can soften macroeconomics shocks in a developing country. This question is of particular interest given the recent food prices crisis between 2007 and 2008 and this paper is particularly interested in evaluating if internal remittances can alleviate income inequalities linked to agricultural prices variation. This study has two objectives: to design a computable general equilibrium model introducing micro-founded internal transfers in order to capture all the redistributive channels and, as a result, to measure the potential impact of these internal transfers. We choose to focus on Senegal and we build an original single-country CGE model that reproduce public redistribution policy and internal transfers, both calibrated on a recent social accounting matrix dated from 2006. We base our work on three important Senegalese householdsísurveys: ESAM I (1995), ESAM II (2002) and ESPS (2005) which provide speciÖc data on disaggregated households, such as spending and income structures, internal transfers and some data on migration. Using all data available, this original model is supposed to recreate all theoretical mechanisms of redistribution, like public transfers as well as private transfers and their interactions
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