57 research outputs found
Senegal: Impacts of COVID-19 on Production, Poverty and Food Systems
No full textBy Cheickh Sadibou Fall, Karl Pauw, Josée Randriamamonjy and James Thurlo
Regional trade patterns across Africa
No full textChapter 3, by Anatole Goundan and Cheickh Sadibou Fall, addresses regional trade, discussing Africa-wide and regional trade patterns. The chapter reviews intra-regional trade performance for the continent as a whole and for its major regional economic communities (RECs). It then proceeds to analyze the direction of trade, examine the role of individual RECs and countries in intra-regional trade, and discuss the key commodities in intra-regional trade
Sénégal: Impacts du COVID-19 sur la production, la pauvreté et les systèmes alimentaires
No full textCheickh Sadibou Fall2, Karl Pauw1, Josée Randriamamonjy1 et James Thurlow1 1 IFPRI 2 Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricole
Regional trade patterns across Africa
No full textChapter 3, by Anatole Goundan and Cheickh Sadibou Fall, addresses regional trade, discussing Africa-wide and regional trade patterns. The chapter reviews intra-regional trade performance for the continent as a whole and for its major regional economic communities (RECs). It then proceeds to analyze the direction of trade, examine the role of individual RECs and countries in intra-regional trade, and discuss the key commodities in intra-regional trade.Non-PRIFPRI1; IFPRI4; DCAAF
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The impact of trade liberalization on Senegal: An assessment of the potential impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Senegalese Households using a Single country CGE analysis
Get PDFThis study developed a single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model including a Household disaggregation in order to measure the potential impacts of two scenarios, the first on full liberalization and the second on the potential implementation of Economic partnership agreement (EPA) between European Union and Ecowas. The classical indicators of poverty and inequality were also computed in addition to the equivalent variation measure in order to capture the effects of the implementation of these policies on Senegalese households. The results show that the EPA scenario seems to be more beneficial in term of welfare variation than the full liberalization scenario. However, the urban households seem to benefit more. The analysis of the inequality indicators shows whatever the scenario considered a decrease of the income inequality. However the EPA scenario again seems to be more beneficial. Lastly, concerning the poverty indicators, the two scenarios envisaged did not seem to reduce poverty
Impact of trade liberalisation in Senegal : assessment of economic partnership agreement on agriculture and senegalese households
No full textCette thèse propose une évaluation des effets potentiels de l’Accord de partenariat économique (APE) entre l’Union européenne (UE) et l’Afrique de l’Ouest sur l’agriculture et les ménages sénégalais. En effet, après plus de 12 ans de discussions, la Communauté Économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO) dans sa majorité a signé l’APE avec l’UE, le volet commercial de l’Accord de Cotonou. L’APE est ainsi devenu le nouveau cadre de coopération économique et commercial entre l’UE et le Sénégal avec l’établissement à terme d’une zone de de libre-échange réciproque entre l’UE et les pays ACP, cependant asymétrique et mettant ainsi fin au régime des conventions de Lomé, qui était basé sur les préférences commerciales non réciproques. Cette étude est basée sur le modèle d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC) uni-pays développé par Bouët et al (2001). Il s’agit à la base d’un modèle statique avec l’hypothèse de concurrence parfaite et non monétaire qui décrit une petite économie ouverte comme le Sénégal. En effet, le Sénégal est un pays en développement importateur net de produits alimentaires et très dépendant du commerce international notamment pour couvrir ses besoins alimentaires. Ce MEGC a été enrichi par l’introduction de l’approche théorique « Dual-Dual » élaborée par Stifel et Thorbecke (2003) pour tenir compte des spécificités de la plupart des économies africaines comme le Sénégal notamment un secteur informel très développé et la migration rural-urbain d’une part et d’autre part parce que la quasi-totalité des MEGC utilisés pour étudier l’économie sénégalaise n’intègre pas ces aspects structurels. De plus, pour bien prendre en compte l’APE dans nos simulations nous avons rajouté deux étages au niveau des exportations et des importations pour bien distinguer les origines/destinations CEDEAO et UE. Le modèle utilisé est calibré sur une matrice de comptabilité sociale (MCS) pour l’année 2006 construite dans le cadre de cette thèse. Pour appréhender les effets sur les ménages, trois enquêtes ménages ont été utilisées pour identifier 78 ménages représentatifs. Pour les données tarifaires, le nouveau tarif extérieur commun de la CEDEAO (TEC CEDEAO) en vigueur depuis le 1er janvier 2015 a été utilisé. Les résultats ont révélé que l’APE est une réforme commerciale qui n’offre pas des perspectives de gains réels pour le Sénégal car elle implique essentiellement une ouverture de l'économie sénégalaise aux seuls produits européens et n'améliore pas l'accès de l'économie sénégalaise aux économies du reste du monde. Sur le plan des analyses de bien-être, l’APE ne permet pas de réduire la pauvreté et les inégalitésThis PHD thesis proposes an assessment of the potential effects of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union (EU) and West Africa on Senegalese agriculture and households. Indeed, after 12 years of negotiations, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in its majority signed the EPA with the EU, the trade component of the Cotonou Agreement. Thus, the EPA has become the new framework for economic and trade cooperation between the EU and Senegal. The objective to the end is the establishment of a reciprocal free trade area between the EU and ACP countries, however asymmetrical and putting an end to the Lome Agreement, which was based on non-reciprocal trade preferences. This study is based on the Single country computable general equilibrium model (CGE) developed by Bouët et al (2001). It is a static model with the assumption of perfect competition and non-monetary, which describes a small open economy such as Senegal. Indeed, Senegal is a net food-importer developing country and very dependent on international trade specially to cover its food needs. This CGE was enriched by the introduction of the "Dual-Dual" theoretical approach developed by Stifel and Thorbecke (2003) to reflect the specificities of most African economies like Senegal i.e. a large informal sector and migration rural-urban firstly and secondly because almost all the CGE models used to study the Senegalese economy does not incorporate these structural aspects. In addition, to better capture the EPA in our simulations we added two stages in exports and imports modelling to distinguish the origins / destinations ECOWAS and EU. The model is calibrated on a 2006 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) built as part of this thesis. To understand the effects on households, three household surveys were used to identify 78 representative households. For tariff data, the new ECOWAS Common External Tariff (ECOWAS CET) launched on January 1st 2015 was used. The results revealed that the EPA is a trade reform that offers no real earnings prospects for Senegal because it essentially implies openness of the Senegalese economy only to European products and does not improve the access of Senegalese economy to other economies of the World. In terms of welfare analysis, the EPA did not reduce poverty and inequality
The impact of trade liberalization on Senegal: An assessment of the potential impacts of an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on Senegalese Households using a Single country CGE analysis
No full textThis study developed a single country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model including a Household disaggregation in order to measure the potential impacts of two scenarios, the first on full liberalization and the second on the potential implementation of Economic partnership agreement (EPA) between European Union and Ecowas. The classical indicators of poverty and inequality were also computed in addition to the equivalent variation measure in order to capture the effects of the implementation of these policies on Senegalese households. The results show that the EPA scenario seems to be more beneficial in term of welfare variation than the full liberalization scenario. However, the urban households seem to benefit more. The analysis of the inequality indicators shows whatever the scenario considered a decrease of the income inequality. However the EPA scenario again seems to be more beneficial. Lastly, concerning the poverty indicators, the two scenarios envisaged did not seem to reduce poverty
Une Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale (MCS) du Sénégal pour l'année 2006
Get PDFUne Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale (MCS) du Sénégal pour l'année 2006
What are the expected effects of trade policies on Poverty in Senegal? a CGE Micro-Macro Analysis
Get PDFThere is an ongoing debate on the role of trade policies in alleviating poverty. Indeed trade liberalization is supposed to improve economic growth (Dollar and Kraay, 2002; Irwin and Tervio, 2002; Frankel and Romer, 1999). Focusing on poverty alleviation and income inequalities, the positive impact of trade is less consensual. Some works have defended the idea that trade integration implies poverty reduction (Bhagwati and Srinivasan, 2002; Dollar and Kraay, 2004; Anderson and Martin, 2005), but most recent studies have not reached this general conclusion, pointing that the link between trade and poverty can be puzzling (Winters, McCulloh and McKay, 2004; Hertel and Winters, 2006; Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2007; Harrison, 2007). According to these studies, trade policies bring contrasted effects on poverty but region or sector-specific conclusions can be done. This paper aims at assessing the expected effects of trade policies on poverty reduction in Senegal. Especially, the main issue is to point out the distributional effects of trade policies among households, following regional, sectoral, occupational and skills features. Our study consists in building a single-CGE model, adapted to poor countries and doing counter-factual micro-simulation analysis to underline the income and distributional effects of tariff-reducing under different scenarios. Thus, in order to match with the Senegalese economy, our CGE-model framework arises from two main issues: treating households heterogeneity and modeling the labor market in order to reflect at the closest a dual-dual economy (Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). This concept refers to the double dichotomy between urban and rural areas and formal and informal sectors. It implies to distinguish urban from rural sectors and formal from informal activities. To treat the first issue, we disaggregate households as most as possible, following
all available criteria in the all set of Senegalese households surveys, namely by region
and milieu of living, marital status and number of children, occupation and degree of
qualification. This gives us 265 representative households that allow us to work in a
combined micro-macro simulation framework. By this way, it is possible to develop a
model in which different kinds of workers can be modeled and thus address our second
issue (namely modeling a dual-dual economy). Indeed, many of the classical CGE
studies in international trade work with simple sets of assumptions about the labor
market that are not appropriated to developing countries, assuming especially fixed or
uniform labor supply. Thus, to address this, our CGE model presents a mechanism
which endogenizes labor supply and a labor-market segmentation which distinguish
the unskilled from the skilled workers. This allows us to capture the skill-specific
labor market effects of shifts in international trade patterns. Besides, the distinction
between workers attached to the rural versus the urban sector is important, since
regional mobility must be taken into account. Finally, we take into account mobility
between formal and informal sectors because productivity and wages differentials imply
different effects of trade policies. As in most CGE models, formal and informal labor are
used in separate sectors.3 We decide to adopt a modeling that is inspired from Stifel and
Thorbecke (2003), but design it in order to match with our sectoral decomposition (34
sectors in the economy, allocated into formal/informal and urban/rural ones, instead
of 4 representative sectors in Stifel and Thorbecke, 2003). As underlined by Boeters
and Savard (2011), this kind of modeling brings new issues such as the need to obtain
labor supply estimates that can be used in our combined micro-macro model.4
After the model is designed and calibrated on a SAM built for the year 2006 (Fall,
2011), different scenarios of trade policies are applied. The first scenario is an EPA
agreement between Senegal and Europe. Indeed, the EU and its ACP partners were
unable to conclude the EPA negotiations as planned on January 1st 2008 and this is still
an ongoing process. The second scenario is full liberalization. These trade policies have
already been assessed in the literature, but mainly using multi-countries CGE models
(Berisha-Krasniqi et al., 2008; Fall et al., 2007) or using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (Cissokho and Diop, 2011). Our micro-macro framework
is complementary and necessary to evaluate the impact in terms of poverty alleviation
Africa agriculture trade monitor 2018
No full textThis report has presented an examination of the recent trends, current status, and future outlook of African agricultural trade in global and regional markets.Non-PRIFPRI1; ReSAKSS; AGRODEPAFR; MTI
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