1,721,003 research outputs found
Transmission Lags and Optimal Monetary Policy
No full textReal world monetary policy is complicated by long and variable lags in the transmission of the policy to the economy. Most of the policy models, however, abstracts from policy lags. This paper presents a model where transmission lags depend on the behaviour of a two-sector supply side of the economy and focuses
on how lag length and variability affect optimal monetary policy. The paper shows that optimal monetary policy should respond more to the sector with the shortest transmission lag and that the presence of production links among sectors amplifies this response. Furthermore, the shorter or more variable the
aggregate transmission lag, the more active the overall policy and the larger the response to the sector with the shortest transmission lag. Finally, the relative strength of the response to inflation and output gap depends on the intensity of the sectoral production links, and on the length of the transmission lags.
Only with reasonable production links should the optimal policy respond more to inflation than to the output gap in line with the empirical evidence
La domanda di riserve internazionali
No full textL'opera affronta il tema delle domanda di riserve internazionali da parte di un paese integrato negli scambi commerciali e finanziari con il resto del mondo. L'argomento in esame viene trattato seguendo un approccio prima positivo e poi normativo in linea con l'evoluzione del pensiero economico. L'opera lega le determinanti della domanda di riserve internazionali al contesto istituzionale in cui un paese si trova ad operare, in particolare il tipo di regime di tassi di cambio e di regolamentazione dei movimenti di capitale. Senza interrompere il filo della discussione, questo lavoro offre una descrizione approfondita della modellistica usata nell'analisi del tema in questione
Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies
No full textCan the choice of the target inflation index in an open-economy affect the central bank ability to forecast the interest rate path? Adopting a New Keynesian set up where the central bank faces real-world model uncertainty, this paper shows that targeting the domestic price index instead of the consumer price index substantially improves the accuracy in the distribution forecast of the interest rate. The policy implication is that adopting the domestic price index may increase the central bank’s convenience of publishing the expected interest rate path
Open-economy Inflation Targeting Policies and Forecast Accuracy
No full textForecast accuracy in macroeconomics is based on statistical techniques for extrapolating time series. This paper takes a new theoretical route studying the relation between forecast
accuracy of macroeconomic variables and alternative monetary policies. Considering optimal policy with model-parameter uncertainty in a small open-economy, the paper shows that
Domestic Inflation Targeting (DIT) leads to more forecast accuracy than Consumer Price index Inflation Targeting (CPIIT). Furthermore, forecast accuracy and policy aggressiveness
turn out to be inversely related, and the trade-off is more severe under CPIIT. These results are obtained in a New-Keynesian model measuring forecast accuracy by the volatility of
simulated fan-charts
Price Stickiness Asymmetry and Real Shocks Macroeconomic Dynamics
No full textIn a two-sector New-Keynesian economy exposed to real shocks, this paper shows that the dispersion in the degree of sectoral price stickiness plays a key role in the determination of the dynamics of aggregate inflation and, consequently, of the whole economy. Increasing the dispersion in price stickiness reduces the persistence of inflation and, to a smaller extent, of the interest rate. It also reduces the volatility of inflation, the interest rate and the output-gap. Thus two economies with the same average degree of sectoral price stickiness but unlike variance may behave very differently. In particular, they can require monetary policies that differ in terms of tightness and/or easiness of a factor ranging between 50% and 150% over the first ten quarters. Generally, disregarding the dispersion in sectoral price stickiness leads policymakers to overvalue the volatility and persistence of inflation (output gap) with any (real) shocks, and to undervalue the volatility and persistence of the output gap with monetary shocks
Economic Stability and the Choice of the Target Inflation Index
No full textThis paper relates the Central Bank's choice of the target inflation index to expected economic stability in a small open economy that pursues inflation targeting. The analysis is set up in a New Keynesian model that allows for optimal monetary policy in presence of model uncertainty and exogenous shocks. The paper shows that for most of the macrovariables targeting the domestic price index instead of the CPI implies considerably more expected economic stability. When policy makers consider model uncertainty in the design of the optimal policy, the difference in the indexes' performance is sharpened allowing more informed decisions on their convenience
Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through
No full textThis paper analyzes how endogenous imperfect exchange rate pass-through affects inflation targeting optimal monetary policies in a New Keynesian small open economy. The paper shows that an inverse relation exists between the pass-through and the insulation of the economy from foreign and monetary policy shocks, and that imperfect pass-through tends to decrease the variability of the terms of trade. Furthermore, with CPI inflation targeting, in the short run, delayed pass-through constrains monetary policy more than incomplete pass-through and interest rate smoothing amplifies this effect. When the pass-through decreases, the variability in economic activity tends to rise and the trade-off between the stabilization of CPI inflation and output worsens in direct relation to how strictly the central bank is targeting CPI inflation. In contrast, with domestic inflation targeting, optimal monetary policy is not constrained and opposite results occur. Consequently, imperfect pass-through favors the choice of domestic to CPI inflation targeting
Ritardo
No full textQuesto lavoro spiega le varie possibili interpretazioni del vocabolo "ritardo" in campo economico. In particolare, ne viene spiegato l'uso nelle discussioni di politica economica e nei modelli dinamici, sia econometrici che teorici
Politica di stabilizzazione
No full textQuesto lavoro spiega il significato economico della locuzione "politica di stabilizzazione". Verte poi ad illustrare le varie politiche di stabilizzazione disponibili per i responsabili della politica economica, e le difficolta' nel decidere la politica di stabilizzazione appropriata. Successivamente, si discute la relazione tra politica economica e aspettative, nonche' le implicazioni che ne conseguono in termini di effetti incerti e differiti nel tempo delle politiche di stabilizzazione. Infine, si fa riferimento ai principali modelli economici utilizzati per studiare le politiche di stabilizzazione
Price stickiness asymmetry, persistence and volatility in a New Keynesian model
Full text linkIn a two-sector New-Keynesian model, this paper shows that the dispersion in the degree of sectoral price stickiness plays a key role in the determination of the dynamics of aggregate inflation and, consequently, of the whole economy. The dispersion in price stickiness reduces the persistence of inflation and, to a smaller extent, of the interest rate. It also reduces the volatility of inflation, the interest rate and the output-gap. Thus two economies with the same average degree of price stickiness but a different variance may behave very differently, highlighting the relevance of sectoral data for economic estimations and forecasts
- …
