1,721,058 research outputs found
The economic assessment of changes in ecosystem services : an application of the CGE methodology
No full textThe present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with
biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on
ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided
by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided
by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the
role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact
these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and
supply across sectors, domestically and internationall
Adaptation, mitigation and "green" R&D to combat global climate change : insight from an empirical integrated assessment exercise
No full textThis work develops a framework for the analysis at the macro-level of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation policies. The FEEM-RICE growth model with stock pollution, endogenous R&D investment and emission abatement is enriched with a planned-adaptation module where a defensive capital stock is built through adaptation investment. Within this framework the optimal path of planned adaptation, the optimal inter and intra temporal mix between adaptation, mitigation and investment in R&D, and the sensitivity of a strategy to each other is identified. The major conclusions of this research show that adaptation, mitigation and R&D are strategic complements as all concur together to the solution of the climate change problem; nonetheless the possibility to adapt reduces the need to mitigate and partly crowds out other forms of investment like those in R&D.
The optimal intertemporal distribution of strategies is also described: it requires to anticipate mitigation effort that should start already when climate damages are low and postpone adaptation intervention until they are substantial. Thus the possibility to adapt is not a justification to delay abatement activities. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of these results to different parameterizations, in particular to changes in expected climate-change damages and in the discount rate
Adaptation, mitigation and “green” R&D to combat global climate change. Insights from an empirical integrated assessment exercise
No full textThis work develops a framework for the analysis at the macro-level of the relationship between adaptation and mitigation policies. The FEEM-RICE growth model with stock pollution, endogenous R&D investment and emission abatement is enriched with a planned-adaptation module where a defensive capital stock is built through adaptation investment. Within this framework the optimal path of planned adaptation, the optimal inter and intra temporal mix between adaptation, mitigation and investment in R&D, and the sensitivity of a strategy to each other is identified. The major conclusions of this research show that adaptation, mitigation and R&D are strategic complements as all concur together to the solution of the climate change problem; nonetheless the possibility to adapt reduces the need to mitigate and partly crowds out other forms of investment like those in R&D. The optimal intertemporal distribution of strategies is also described: it requires to anticipate mitigation effort that should start already when climate damages are low and postpone adaptation intervention until they are substantial. Thus the possibility to adapt is not a justification to delay abatement activities. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of these results to different parameterizations, in particular to changes in expected climate-change damages and in the discount rate
Gli effetti del cambiamento climatico in agricoltura
No full textI possibili impatti economici che il cambiamento climatico può esercitare in futuro (2050) sui settori agricoli vengono stimati a mezzo di un modello economico di equilibrio generale statico. Particolare a questo esercizio è l’utilizzo di informazioni provenienti da un modello climatico di circolazione globale e di un modello di produttività agricola che vengono interfacciati al modello economico. I risultati dimostrano la limitata entità delle conseguenze per produzione alimentare e benessere, ma anche la relativa maggior penalizzazione per i paesi in via di sviluppo. L’esercizio di simulazione è introdotto da un’ampia rassegna della letteratura rilevant
Le Alpi italiane e il cambiamento climatico : elementi di vulnerabilità ambientale ed economica e possibili strategie di adattamento
No full textIntegrated socio-economic assessment : the economic point of view)
No full textThis section introduces the main methodologies used by the climate change impact science to assess economically the consequences of climate change. Furthermore it presents the main findings of this literature focusing specifically on possible future economic consequences of climate change in the Mediterranean area emphasizing the new knowledge in this field brought by the CIRCE project. The robust finding of the literature points out a low economic vulnerability of Euro-Mediterranean countries (with losses ranging from −0.25 to −1.4% of GDP for extreme temperature scenarios or even slight gains), and a higher vulnerability of North African and Eastern-Mediterranean countries (of roughly 2% of GDP by the mid of the century). Against this background the CIRCE project proposes one of the first attempts to perform a detailed integrated impact assessment exercise focusing on the Mediterranean area. With the IPCC A1B SRES scenario as reference, impacts related to energy demand, sea-level rise and tourism, have been economically assessed by a general equilibrium model. The Mediterranean as a whole loses 1.2% of GDP with the Northern-Mediterranean countries clearly less vulnerable than the Southern-Mediterranean ones. Among the former the average loss in 2050 is 0.5% of GDP, while among the latter this more than doubles. Particularly adversely affected are Cyprus, Albania and the Eastern Mediterranean region (−1.6, −2.4, −1.5% of GDP respectively in 2050). In terms of impact types, tourism and sea-level rise are clearly the most threatening, while GDP impacts induced by demand re-composition of energy use is less of an issue and often positiv
The economic and environmental effects of an EU ban on illegal logging imports : isights from a CGE assessment
No full textIllegal logging is widely recognized as a major economic problem and one of the causes of environmental degradation. Increasing awareness of its negative effects has fostered a wide range of proposals to combat it by major international conservation groups and political organizations. Following the 2008 US legislation which prohibits the import of illegally harvested wood and wood products, the European Union (EU) is now discussing a legislation proposal which would ban illegal timber from the EU market. In this study we use the ICES computable general equilibrium model to estimate the reallocation of global demand and timber imports following the pending EU legislation. With this exercise our final objective is to assess the economic impacts and measure the potential emission reduction resulting from the introduction of this type of policy. Results show that while the EU ban does not seem particularly effective in reducing illegal logging activities, its main effect will be the removal of illegal logs from the international markets. In addition, the unilateral EU ban on illegal logs increases secondary wood production in illegal logging countries as their exports become relatively more competitive. Through this mechanism, part of the banned, illegal timber will re-enter the international trade flows, but it will be “hidden” as processed wood. This effect is, however, limited. Finally, given the limited effect on overall economic activity, effects on GHG emissions are also limited. Direct carbon emissions from logging activities can decrease from 2.5 to 0.6 million tons per yea
EQUITY, DEVELOPMENT, AND CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROL
No full textThe paper analyzes the effects of different equity principles on the decision of developing
countries to join a world coalition whose aim is to control greenhouse gas emissions. A
game-theoretic framework is proposed to assess the incentives for different countries to sign
an international treaty on climate change control. Then, the effects of different equity rules
on these incentives are evaluated by using a dynamic integrated growth and climate model.
Policy proposals based on transfers from developed to developing countries are also analyzed
Assessing the economic impacts of climate change : an updated CGE point of view
Full text linkThe present research describes a climate change integrated impact assessment exercise, whose economic evaluation is based on a CGE approach and modeling effort. Input to the CGE model comes from a wide although still partial set of up-to-date bottom-up impact studies. Estimates indicate that a temperature increase of 1.92°C compared to pre-industrial levels in 2050 could lead to global GDP losses of approximately 0.5% compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur. Northern Europe is expected to benefit from the evaluated temperature increase (+0.18%), while Southern and Eastern Europe are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario under analysis (-0.15% and -0.21% respectively). Most vulnerable countries are the less developed regions, such as South Asia, South-East Asia, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions the most exposed sector is agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity is by far the most important source of damages. It is worth noting that the general equilibrium estimates tend to be lower, in absolute terms, than the bottom-up, partial equilibrium estimates. The difference is to be attributed to the effect of market-driven adaptation. This partly reduces the direct impacts of temperature increases, leading to lower damage estimates. Nonetheless these remain positive and substantive in some regions. Accordingly, market-driven adaptation cannot be the solution to the climate change problem
Cost effectiveness of Greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey
No full textOver the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation
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