1,721,099 research outputs found
Simultaneous Causality in International Trade
Full text linkThis paper proposes estimating causalities in bilateral international trade in simultaneous systems, including domestic and foreign GDP as well as mutual trade flows. Conventional macroeconomic theory mainly follows partial approaches like import functions or export-led growth. Focusing on the US relations with Euroland and Canada, cointegration analyses however reveal, that the system dynamics, and so both im- and exports, are simply governed by US GDP shocks. In conclusion, exploring sources and effects of international trade should be seen as an inherently empirical task.Import, Export, Causality, Cointegration.
Economic Integration and the Foreign Exchange
Full text linkThis paper demonstrates effects of economic convergence processes on the foreign exchange behaviour in a monetary modelling approach. Since the exchange rate represents the relative price of two currencies, commonness of stochastic trends between the fundamental determinants of supply and demand of the underlying monies restricts exchange rate movements to transitory fluctuations. In the spirit of optimal currency areas, this has the potential to serve as a criterion for an all-round integration of two economies. Empirically, such a constellation is found between Australia and New Zealand, whereas diverging trends in money and interest rates characterise the relation of Australia towards the US.Monetary Exchange Rate Model, Convergence, Stationarity, Australia.
Correlation vs. Causality in Stock Market Comovement
Full text linkThis paper seeks to disentangle the sources of correlations between high-, mid- and lowcap stock indexes from the German prime standard. In principle, such comovement can arise from direct spillover between the variables or due to common factors. By standard means, these different components are obviously not identifiable. As a solution, the underlying study proposes specifying ARCH-type models for both the idiosyncratic innovations and a common factor, so that the model structure can be identified through heteroscedasticity. The seemingly surprising result that smaller caps have higher influence than larger ones is explained by asymmetric information processing in financial markets. Broad macroeconomic information is shown to enter the common factor rather than the segment-specific shocks.Identification, Spillover, Common Factor, Structural EGARCH, DAX
Structural Dynamic Conditional Correlation
Full text linkIn the literature of identifcation through autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, Weber (2008) developed the structural constant conditional correlation (SCCC) model. Besides determining linear simultaneous in
uences between several variables, this model considers interaction in the structural innovations. Even though this allows for common fundamental driving forces, these cannot explain time variation in correlations of observed variables, which still have to rely on causal transmission eects. In this context, the present paper extends the analysis to structural dynamic conditional correlation (SDCC). The additional fexibility is shown to make an important contribution in the estimation of empirical real-data examples.Simultaneity, Identifcation, EGARCH, DCC
Structural Constant Conditional Correlation
Full text linkA small strand of recent literature is occupied with identifying simultaneity in multiple equation systems through autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Since this approach assumes that the structural innovations are uncorrelated, any contemporaneous connection of the endogenous variables needs to be exclusively explained by mutual spillover effects. In contrast, this paper allows for instantaneous covariances, which become identifiable by imposing the constraint of structural constant conditional correlation (SCCC). In this, common driving forces can be modelled in addition to simultaneous transmission effects. The new methodology is applied to the Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite indexes in a small empirical example, illuminating scope and functioning of the SCCC model.Simultaneity, Identification, EGARCH, CCC
Ideology Without Ideologists
Full text linkGenerally, Democrats do not increase military spending, and Republicans do not raise welfare payments. Mostly, ruling politicians stick to the manifesto of their party. The current paper provides a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon that does not assume politicians or voters to be ideologists. I explore an environment where both voters and politicians always prefer the policy that is adequate to the world state but contradicts the party manifesto over the policy that is in line with the manifesto but not adequate. I find that nevertheless, the inefficient manifesto-driven policy will often result from their interaction. Besides, I show that a high degree of agreement between the politician in office, his party basis and the voter makes efficient, informed policy rare or even impossible. But if homogeneity of convictions within parties is high, swing voter behavior can solve the problem.Information transmission, signalling, ideology, intra-party politics, political opinion.
A Generalized ARFIMA Process with Markov-Switching Fractional Differencing Parameter
Full text linkWe propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm combines the Durbin-Levinson and Viterbi procedures. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and ARFIMA(1, d, 1) process is satisfactory. We apply the Markov-switching-ARFIMA models to the U.S. real interest rates, the Nile river level, and the U.S. unemployment rates, respectively. The results are all highly consistent with the conjectures made or empirical results found in the literature. Particularly, we confirm the conjecture in Beran and Terrin (1996) that the observations 1 to about 100 of the Nile river data seem to be more independent than the subsequent observations, and the value of differencing parameter is lower for the first 100 observations than for the subsequent data.Markov chain; ARFIMA process; Viterbi algorithm; Long memory.
Statistics of Risk Aversion
Full text linkInformation about risk preferences from investors is essential for modelling a wide range of quantitative finance applications. Valuable information related to preferences can be extracted from option prices through pricing kernels. In this paper, pricing kernels and their term structure are estimated in a time varying approach from DAX and ODAX data using dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM). DSFM smooths in time and space simultaneously, approximating complex dynamic structures by basis functions and a time series of loading coefficients. Contradicting standard risk aversion assumptions, the estimated pricing kernels indicate risk proclivity in certain levels of return. The analysis of the time series of loading coefficients allows a better understanding of the dynamic behaviour from investors preferences towards risk.Dynamic Semiparametric Estimation, Pricing Kernel, Risk Aversion.
Yxilon – A Client/Server Based Statistical Environment
Full text linkAlong with many others, we agree that a modern education in statistics needs to incorporate the practical analysis of real datasets, which are usually more complex than the common examples found in standard textbooks. The software used in the teaching of statistics includes standard spreadsheet environments such as OpenOffice and Excel and dedicated commercial and non-commercial packages such as R, Minitab or SPSS. With the freely available Yxilon environment we add another package and proliferate the statistical programming language XploRe, using a modern client/server based architecture. This architecture has the capabilities of serving statistical results in a variety of flavors for different groups of users. In this paper we describe the general setup of the Yxilon environment and present selected technical details.E-learning, Statistical Software.
Regional and Outward Economic Integration in South-East Asia
Full text linkThe subject of this paper tackles questions of macroeconomic integration of the South-East Asian countries South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Economically, the analysis is based on notions of stochastic long-run convergence and business cycle synchrony in the GDPs. According tests for cointegration and common serial correlation features reveal a high degree of coherence in long-run growth and medium-run fluctuations. This allows extracting a common stochastic growth trend and a common business cycle. Further analysis shows, both of these components are subject to stronger influences from the US than from Japan. Convergence towards these matured economies conspicuously appears since the 1990s.Real Convergence, Cointegration, Common Cycles, South-East Asia.
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