1,720,955 research outputs found
THE EMERGING OF A MULTILATERAL FORUM FOR DEBT RESTRUCTURING: THE PARIS CLUB
Full text linkThis paper describes the evolution of intergovernmental relationships on debt rescheduling. It starts describing some experiences that aroused in the 18th Century and which negotiations were carried out, in many occasions, with the help of gunboat diplomacy. The settlement of liabilities that were created at the aftermath of the two 20th Century World Wars, which were – at least for some countries –- not exactly debt but war reparations, gave some insights in how to deal with these problems allowing the debtor country to find its own path to get out of the debt overhang. The settlement of these foreign liabilities may give some guidelines for dealing with debt restructuring in more general cases The creation of the Paris Club – which is a very civilized way to settle debt defaults compared to gunboat diplomacy – is analyzed and described here: first its emergency as an ad hoc transitory institution and later its evolution toward its definitive establishment in the international financial system landscape. It is also suggested that for a combination of events, which included the launch in Evian of the G-8’s so-called Evian Approach for the Paris Club, as well as the lack of support of some major industrialized countries to the implementation of a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM), the Paris Club has become the only feasible international intergovernmental debt restructuring mechanism in spite of numerous shortcomings embodied in it. On this basis, some improvements of the actual mechanism are proposed, without precluding the possibility of the implementation of a more equilibrated SDRM in the future.
AN OVERVIEW OF MAJOR SOURCES OF DATA AND ANALYSES RELATING TO PHYSICAL FUNDAMENTALS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS
Full text linkThe debate on whether price movements in commodity markets are determined by changes in physical supply and demand fundamentals or by the speculative effects of financial investors seems to find some element of agreement on one particular point: the need for increased transparency and improved information on futures markets and physical commodity markets. This discussion paper provides an assessment of the current situation with regard to availability of information on physical commodity markets, pointing to some of the existing information gaps and areas for improvement. The paper presents a comprehensive account of the different information sources for physical commodity markets (including their websites), and could therefore be considered a practical information tool in itself, of use to different stakeholders interested in knowing about developments in these markets.
SHARE OF LABOUR COMPENSATION AND AGGREGATE DEMAND – DISCUSSIONS TOWARDS A GROWTH STRATEGY
Full text linkEconomic growth strategies of developing countries have focused in the last decades on expanding their exports. In that scheme, wage compression seems necessary in order to compensate the observed slow productivity pace achieving, therefore, “competitiveness”. The core of this discussion is, undoubtedly, how the national product is appropriated through wages and surplus, i.e. the factorial income distribution. From that viewpoint, this paper discusses the long-term impoverishment of Argentinean workers through two key aspects of the economic process: on one hand, the way in which labour force is allocated, by analysing the relationship between real wage and productivity. On the other, how income is used in the acquisition of consumer goods and capital formation. In order to fully comprehend those trends, this paper recourses to an international comparison with two types of countries: the developed ones (United States of America, France and Japan) and the largest Latin American economies (Brazil and Mexico). As these processes take place in the long run, this paper’s analysis period will start from the 1950s.
CHINA´S TERMS OF TRADE IN MANIFACTURES 1993-2000
Full text linkRecent years have witnessed the rapid growth of China’s imports and exports of manufactures, as well as critical changes in its terms of trade. This study compares trends in China’s price indices for exports and imports between 1993 and 2000. It also examines the terms of trade for China’s manufactures with respect to (i) different partner countries and country groups, including all developed countries, all developing countries, the European Union, the United States, Japan, the four first-tier East Asian NIEs, the ASEAN Four (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) and other developing countries, and (ii) different product groups, including total exports and imports as well as various categories of manufactured products. The study attempts to explore and assess the factors that shaped the trends, and, based on the resulting conclusions, to make recommendations for developing countries seeking to improve their terms of trade for manufactures.
CENTRAL BANKING, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND CREDIT CREATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Full text linkThis paper examines how developing countries can embark on a sustained path of strong investment, capital accumulation and economic growth without capital imports. It is argued that the key lies in the Keynesian-Schumpeterian credit-investment nexus: Given certain preconditions, the central bank can allow a credit expansion which finances new investment and creates the savings necessary to balance the national accounts. It is further argued and confirmed in empirical data that one of the biggest impediments to such a process is formal or informal dollarization which limits the policy scope of the central bank. Moreover, a stable banking system with a broad outreach as well as a low degree of pass-through between the exchange rate and domestic prices seem to be a necessary condition for this process to work
The Debt Office and the Effective Debt Management Functions: An Institutional and Operational Framework
Full text linkThe paper aims to be a useful analytical and managerial support tool for the debt practitioners and for the academia. It provides an appropriate approach for developing countries, and offers a detailed and systematic blueprint in how to establishing an efficient Debt Management Office. This paper differentiates from other papers published on the subject at least in two aspects. The first one is the political relevance that is given to the decision making process as far as responsibility for fixing a global macroeconomic public debt management strategy is concerned. The second is that the approach is a functional analysis, that is, there is no need to have a specific structure for the debt office in order to analyse who and where the functions are carried out. The paper gives a clear and well-defined list of tasks for each one of the functions, and this leads to clear and structured functional responsibilities for the implementation of the back, middle and front office working organization structure. This paper is composed of five sections. The first one is an introduction to the concept of Effective Debt Management Functions. The second and the third are the description of the functions: the second for the Executive Functions, which are not necessarily a Debt Management Office (DMO) responsibility, and the third to the Operational Functions, which are the direct DMO responsibilities. The fourth section is devoted to the responsibilities that a DMO can be accountable for, that may vary from country to country. The last section addresses major issues on debt management, stressing the pragmatic analysis that the functional approach provides. There are two Annexes with open-ended lists of tasks for each one of the Effective Debt Management Functions
THE SCOPE FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET INTERVENTIONS
Full text linkThe discussion on exchange rate policy is dominated by the so-called “impossible trinity”. According to this principle an autonomous monetary policy, a control over the exchange rate and free capital movements cannot be achieved simultaneously. In this paper, a strategy of managed floating is developed that allows transforming the “impossible trinity” into a “possible trinity”. If a central bank targets an exchange rate path which is determined by uncovered interest parity (UIP), it can at the same time set its policy rate autonomously. As a UIP path removes the incentives for carry-trade, it is also compatible with capital mobility. The approach can be used unilaterally to prevent carry trade as a central bank can always prevent an appreciation of its currency. But it can also be applied bilaterally or multilaterally. Successful examples are the European Monetary System and the exchange rate policy of Slovenia before its EMU membership.
CHINA´S ACCESSION TO WTO: EXAGGERATED FEARS?
Full text linkThe determination of China to accede to the World Trade Organization was driven mostly by its desire to further its economic reform. However, because of the spectacular growth in its international trade in the past two decades, there is the fear that with China’s accession to WTO, China would undergo another wave of international trade expansion which might cost job opportunities in both developed and developing worlds. On the other hand, the Chinese are wary of social dislocation to be caused by intensified foreign competition in the post-accession period. A close examination of the structure of China’s international trade shows that because of the high import contents of China’s exports and the fact that foreign-funded companies account for about half of China’s international trade, future growth in China’s international trade will benefit to various degrees China’s trading partners as well as home countries of transnational corporations. Furthermore, the talk of an imminent export surge from China seems far- fetched, as the conditions of China’s accession to WTO as well China’s foreign trade potential are unlikely to permit that to take place. On the whole, the challenges posed by China’s accession to WTO will, at least in the short run, be greater to China than to its trading partners. However, two decades of fast economic growth and opening-up to the outside world have prepared the country. Therefore, the new set of problems for China is likely to be surmountable.
THE IMPACT OF CHINA´S ACCESSION TO WTO ON THE EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Full text linkUsing the "revealed competitive advantage indices" for exports and imports, the paper is devoted to the analyses of the vulnerability of selected developing countries if China´s competitive position is improved due to its entry to WTO. In contrast to the existing literature which concentrates on labour-intensive products as a group, this paper considers products at a disaggregate level since products in the same group are not often homogeneous. In labour-intensive manufactured goods, China competes mainly with South Asian* countries and a few Latin American and African countries. But it also provides them with little demand complementary effects. Nevertheless, some Latin American and African countries may benefit from the expansion of China´s imports of foods and agricultural raw materials. In the final market for capital goods China competes with Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs) and Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, and in a limited number of goods with Mexico and Costa Rica. For NIEs, unlike others such competition involves complementary effects, through the import of parts and components, which will over-offset the competition effects in the short- and medium-run. As China develops its capacity to produce components, however, the "competition " effect may dominate. China´s export structure is similar to that of the Republic of Korea and Malaysia in the final market for a number of "finished" capital goods. By contrast, Thailand is vulnerable in clothing, miscellaneous household equipment and electric machinery. Indonesia has little to worry except for furniture. India concentrates mainly on undergarments, and China in outer garments. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Viet Nam and Nepal have similar export structure with China in some clothing items, but overall they, particularly Viet Nam have been aggressive in exportation of these products. Sri Lanka and Pakistan also compete with China in toys and sporting goods, but both have shown some strength in their exports. Except Mexico, Costa Rica, Haiti and to some extent Uruguay, the export structure of the Latin American countries is mostly different from that of China. Mexico has a strong competitive position vis-à-vis China in a number of clothing items, but weaker in a few assembly operation. Costa Rica´s competitive advantage has noticeably improved for a number of clothing items and a few assembly operations. Haiti competes with China in 8 products, mostly clothing. It has a strong competitive position in footwear, one clothing item and some base metal. Uruguay´s relative competitive position is weak in a number of labourintensive products. The export structure of African countries is different from that of China, except for Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Malawi. These countries have improved their competitive position in their clothing. China´s entry into the WTO will not change, for some time, its market access for textiles and clothing for it to be a threat to other developing countries. In fact, China´s growth in quota for exports to developed countries will increase far less than other developing countries. Nevertheless, if China attempts devaluation the situation could change radically. China´s devaluation is however unlikely. Over a longer-term, much depends on what policy China will pursue in its trade and industrialization. China´s attempt in increasing domestic value added in exports could lead to improvement in its competitiveness in technology/skill intensive products of interest to NIEs and the ASEAN.
DYNAMIC PRODUCTS IN WORLD EXPORTS
Full text linkThe values and market shares of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–1998: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods which require high R&D expenditures, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration in developing countries at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.
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