2,673 research outputs found
Uncertainty in Migration Scenarios. QuantMig Project Deliverable D9.2 Data Description
No full textThis open data deposit contains the data and code accompanying used in the report: Barker and Bijak (2021), Uncertainty in Migration Scenarios, QuantMig Project Deliverable D9.2. The cover note should be read in conjunction with the report, available via www.quantmig.eu, and with the individual readme files in the data folders that can be found within this Zenodo repository (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7709443).</span
Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU
No full textData and files for Barker E.R. and Bijak J (2022) Could we have seen it coming? Towards an early warning system for asylum applications in the EU [V1.1]. QuantMig Project Deliverable D9.3. University of Southampton. Included is a full data description file.</span
Kick, bollocks and scramble: an examination of power and creative decision making in the production process during the golden era of British music videos 1995-2001
No full textIn the golden era of British music video production 1995 – 2001 the responsibilities of a feature film producer were shared by the producer, executive producer, director and video commissioner. The author examines the roles of each, and argues that Pardo’s framework (2010 for evaluating the creative contribution of producers obscures the direct budgetary power of producers in this particular sector. She argues that more empirical research should be conducted on the role of the producer in sectors of the British screen industry other than feature films and television
Growth, growth, growth: how and where from? Europe's demographic and technological challenges
No full textPoliticians like to talk about economic growth without specifying well-founded proposals to achieving this. Some countries need to kickstart growth more than others as demographic challenges are an under-appreciated threat to long-term prosperity. In the 21st century input factors include multi-skill labour and labour saving or job automating technologies that policies need to consider individually. For too long, traditional approaches have been `that will do' but in staying still, European economies going backwards. Researchers need to find policy solutions for governments and the private sector to solve a country's problems
Enlargements of the European Labour Market
No full textThe European Economic Area (EEA) provides a common market for goods, labour, services, and capital. Promoting integration between countries through the free movement of labour, or more generally persons, pre-dates the previous forms of the EEA. However, during the Southern and Eastern Expansions of the European Union, there have been transition agreements on persons, designed to restrict immigration. Opening up labour markets to the new member states with significantly lower GDP per capita than existing states, has been contentious. This is why the use of transition agreements have permitted periods which existing members can limit immigration. Not all countries impose restrictions, and during the Eastern Enlargements, the restrictions that were imposed for varying lengths of time. During the transition agreement, the economies of new members and existing members can converge, which is ultimately designed to limit the pull factor of migration. In this note, we provide a concise resource of the timeline of the expansion of full free movement of persons for countries in the EEA and Switzerland
EU Energy and Environment Sub-Committee - Brexit: plant and animal biosecurity
No full textAnswers given to questions asked by the House of Lords EU and Energy Subcommittee as part of the enquiry Brexit: plant and animal biosecurity, 25 April 2018. Three academics attended: Dr Robert Black of the Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich; Dr Emily Lydgate, University of Sussex; Dr Kezia Barker, Birkbeck College, University of London. A full transcript was made available that will formed the basis of questioning of senior government officials in May 2018
Uncertainty in migration scenarios
No full textIn this report, we propose ways of looking at the uncertainty of migration forecasts and scenarios across a range of time horizons, through the lens of macroeconomic modelling. As an illustration, for short-term horizons, we present the results of empirical models aiming to assess different aspects of the uncertainty in migration and economic dynamics following exogenous shocks. To that end, we estimate Bayesian panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models to generate forecasts, which can be also used in scenario-setting. We also examine the effects of an exogenous increase to migration on the macroeconomy. By looking at the forecast errors for different migration indicators, and for a range of models and groups of European countries, we assess the usefulness of VAR models for generating short- and long-range migration forecasts and scenarios and for estimating their uncertainty. For longer horizons, we also look into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, which are used here to generate theoretically-informed migration scenarios. In particular, we look at a scenario of job automation, examining inequalities in migration processes, either modelled as exogenous or, in a two-country model, with fully endogenous migration decisions, depending on the labour market conditions and costs. The results of modelling offer coherent migration scenarios and provide a tool for assessing the uncertainty of both migration and its impacts. We also identify and discuss several important remaining research gaps and methodological challenges of using modern macroeconomic approaches for forward-looking migration studies, and propose some practical solutions
Can robots and migration help address the challenges of ageing? Specification and initial analysis of dynamic model for examining policy resilience
No full textLabour shortages are common in developing countries, whether through poor job-skill matching or imbalances originating in the existing labour force. Migration has long been perceived as a possible solution to labour market shortages, but it is also known to be a temporary fix. At the same time, advantages in technology have helped to introduce robots to the production processes, but so far, it has not become a large-scale panacea, partially due to the expense, with some countries lagging behind in automating their industries. Yet another labour shortage challenge is coming from ageing of the population and the labour force -- for some European countries, the associated labour force decline is already very visible. At the same time, ageing generates additional labour demand, particularly in the very labour-intensive health and social care sectors, which are not prone to automation.This research presents the specification and some initial analysis of a DSGE model that looks at whether migration and automation can address some challenges of ageing. We focus on a case study of a two-country system linked through migration: on the one hand, we look at Germany, as Europe's largest migrant receiving country and leader in automation. On the other hand, we examine the effects of the migration and automation on Poland, which until recently was predominantly a migrant sending country, and which is still lagging significantly in terms of automation behind most of the other EU countries. The DSGE model will ultimately serve as a tool to examine the vulnerability of European socio-economic systems to external shocks
A panel VAR analysis of migration in Europe
No full textMigration flows for European countries are an important factor to the economy, whether net receivers or senders of migrants. With such differing migratory and macroeconomic profiles within Europe, one migration model can't fit all. To examine the effects of migration shocks, we empirically analyse the effects of net migration on the macroeconomy, government finances, and the labour market in panel VAR models using mixed frequency data across Europe. We group the selected European countries into four categories based on macroeconomic and migration characteristics enabling a larger number of countries to be included in the analysis. The results show that net (e)migration matters for an economy with different countries better able to absorb the shocks. The fiscal policy implications are extended to assess the flows of migration, including push and pull factors from the labour market
Conceptualisation and analysis of migration uncertainty: insights from macroeconomics
No full textIn this paper, we provide a background discussion and a proposal of methods forquantifying migration-associated uncertainty across a range of time horizons, which cover both prediction and scenarios of migration in the mid- to long-term, as well as early warning systems in the short term. Following a brief review of the state of the art in forward-looking migration studies, we explore the analytical possibilities offered here by macroeconomic approaches, such as the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. While such models have been used to model the impacts of migration on the wider economy, we propose to look at their potential in addressing the influence of drivers on migration flows, with particular focus on the reactions of migration to economic and political shocks. Even though both the methods and presented examples are mainly macroeconomic, given their origins and most of the literature base, the usefulness of the approach for setting migration scenarios under uncertainty and for constructing early warning systems goes beyond economic applications. We argue that such models can serve as a blueprint for modelling complex macro-level migration processes, with explicitly acknowledged micro-foundations and uncertainty
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