1,963 research outputs found
Paired time series of daily discharge and storm surge
No full textThis dataset presents daily time series of discharge and maximum storm surge at river mouths globally from 1980 - 2014.
Daily river discharge is the product of routing the mean daily runoff of the JULES model from the eartH2Observe WRR2 reanalysis data at 0.5° resolution (Best et al., 2011; Clark et al., 2011; Schellekens et al., 2017) with CaMa-Flood at a 0.25° resolution (Yamazaki et al., 2011). The maximum daily storm surge is obtained from the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) (Muis et al., 2016; Verlaan et al., 2015). Each discharge location at the river mouth of coastal catchments larger than 1,000 km2 is paired with the nearest (≤ 75 km) GTSM output location (Eilander et al., 2019).
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Paired time series of daily discharge and storm surge
No full textThis dataset presents daily time series of discharge and maximum storm surge at river mouths globally from 1980 - 2014.
Daily river discharge is the product of routing the mean daily runoff of the JULES model from the eartH2Observe WRR2 reanalysis data at 0.5° resolution (Best et al., 2011; Clark et al., 2011; Schellekens et al., 2017) with CaMa-Flood at a 0.25° resolution (Yamazaki et al., 2011). The maximum daily storm surge is obtained from the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) (Muis et al., 2016; Verlaan et al., 2015). Each discharge location at the river mouth of coastal catchments larger than 1,000 km2 is paired with the nearest (≤ 75 km) GTSM output location (Eilander et al., 2019).
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Long-term sea-level rise necessitates a commitment to adaptation: a first order assessment
Full text linkWithout adaptation, sea-level rise (SLR) will put more people at risk of flooding. This requires a timely and adequate commitment to adaptation. In this paper, we show how adaptation needs to unfold over time to manage climate-induced SLR. We use a novel scenario-neutral approach, applied globally and subsequently combined with SLR and population scenarios, to assess when, where, and how fast to adapt up to 2150. As rates of SLR accelerate, adaptation needs to occur at an increasing pace or at a larger scale. While it is certain that adaptation will be necessary, it is uncertain when and how fast. After only ~0.15m SLR relative to 2020, 1 million people need to adapt to permanent submergence and the amount of people at risk of a 100-year flood increases with 21% to 83 million people. This would occur in the next 30 (20-45) years for RCP4.5 and within 25 (18-36) years under RCP8.5, assuming no change in protection or population. The uncertainty in timing increases with higher SLR, albeit for some impacts it can still a matter of time. Population at risk of a 100-year flood doubles after 0.75m SLR which could occur by ~2080 (2068-2088), 2100 (2085-2130), or 2150 (2115-beyond 2150) under a high-end, RCP8.5, or RCP4.5 scenario respectively. The rate, at which the risk increases, differs strongly per country. In some countries an additional 1-5 million people of the present population will be at risk of a 100-year flood within the next two decades, while others have more time to adapt but will see rapid growth of risk past 2100. Combining SLR impacts with projected population change further increases the number of people at risk of a 100-year flood by ~13% between 2040-2060 (under both RCP8.5-SSP5 or RCP4.5-SSP2). This can be managed through protecting, floodproofing or limiting developments in high-risk areas. A commitment to adaptation is inevitable to maintain risk at present levels. With increasing warnings of the potential for accelerated SLR due to rapid ice sheet melt, adaptation may need to happen faster and sooner than previously anticipated which can have consequences for how to adapt. Failure to acknowledge the potential and long-term (including beyond 2100) adaptation commitment in development and adaptation planning may lead to a commitment gap and subsequently expensive retrofitting of infrastructure, creation of stranded assets, and less time to adapt at greater cost. In contrast, considering the long-term adaptation commitment can support timely adaptation and alignment with other societal goals
Entertainer: Pieter-Dirk Uys
No full textThis booklet celebrates the life and work of Pieter-Dirk Uys, internationally acclaimed playwright, author, role-model and one of South Africa's living treasures
Entertainer: Pieter-Dirk Uys
No full textThis booklet celebrates the life and work of Pieter-Dirk Uys, internationally acclaimed playwright, author, role-model and one of South Africa's living treasures
Entertainer: Pieter-Dirk Uys
No full textThis booklet celebrates the life and work of Pieter-Dirk Uys, internationally acclaimed playwright, author, role-model and one of South Africa's living treasures
Formal Techniques and Self/Other Relations in the Novels of Dirk Bogarde
No full textThe thesis foregrounds the distinctive contribution Dirk Bogarde made to
contemporary writing in a second career that developed in parallel to his screen
commitments. It dispels the notion that Bogarde followed a familiar path as an actor
who wrote books. Instead it establishes his reputation as an innovative writer whose
formal technique was substantially influenced by the textual systems of cinema and
the cross-fertilisation from acting to writing.
In examining the formative factors that steered Bogarde towards authorship, the
thesis addresses the role of performance as a generative factor in the evolution of the
novels, establishing a discursive link with Bakhtinian dialogism, and specifically,
transgredience as a formal imperative. Secondly, it affords a critical insight into why
the major concerns with staging and performativity preoccupy his writing career.
The thesis claims that Bogarde was an empirically dialogical writer whose use
of camera-eye narration fostered the proliferation of competing discourses across the
fiction. This formal dynamic is centred on the relationship between stages and
dialogism, which incorporates the work of Erving Goffinan as a complementary
critique to Bakhtinian theory with its emphasis on self-presentation. The concern
with socially-constructed behaviour leads the thesis to address the associated issues of
stereotyping and 'otherness', which in terms of body politics is articulated by the
mono logic drive to confine the sexual 'other' to a fixed representation.
Bogarde's ability to draw on cinematic and performance techniques identifies
an area of expertise unavailable to most other writers. This is an unusual repository
of skills to bring to writing which is why the thesis makes the claim for his singular
achievement as a contemporary author. There are fruitful points of intersection to be
explored in this respect with the work of Christopher Isherwood, whom Bogarde read
and admired, as a basis for further research. It is hoped that the thesis will play its
part in opening up new possibilities for Bogarde's writing to be re-visited by future
critics
Compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale
No full textThis dataset presents the results presented in Couasnon et al. (2019) - Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale. For more information about the methods, please refer to the paper. This dataset was created using as input time series of discharge and maximum storm surge at river mouths globally from 1980 - 2014.
If using this data, please cite:
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020.</p
"The end of national models? Integration courses and citizenship trajectories in Europe"
Full text linkSeveral European countries have recently introduced or are planning to introduce citizenship trajectories (voluntary or obligatory inclusion programs for recent immigrants) or citizen integration tests (tests one should pass to be able and acquire permanent residence or state citizenship). Authors like Joppke claim this is an articulation of a more general shift towards the logic of assimilation (and away from a multicultural agenda) in integration policy paradigms of European States. Integration policies would even be converging in such a fashion that it would no longer make sense to think in terms of national models for immigrant integration. One cannot deny the empirical fact of diffusion of civic integration policies throughout Europe. This paper claims there is, however, still sufficient distinctiveness between immigrant integration policies in order to continue and use an analytical framework which distinguishes national models
Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries
No full textWhen river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities
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