14 research outputs found
Author Correction: Defining the r factor for post-trauma resilience and its neural predictors
Full text linkAuthor Correction for "Defining the r factor for post-trauma resilience and its neural predictors
Evaluating democratic governance: A bottom up approach to European Union enlargement
Full text linkAlthough analyses of democracy and governance may be complementary rather than in conflict, they are not identical. This article compares the EU criteria for evaluating applicants for membership with those of democracy indexes. It uses data from the 13- country New Europe Barometer surveys of public opinion to provide a bottom up evaluation of democratic governance in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Ukraine. The results are compared, point by point, with the minimum evaluation of governance in the eight Central and East European countries admitted to the EU in 2004. Factor analysis confirms statistically that these measures are multi-dimensional; in other words, democratic governance cannot be reduced to a one-dimensional index of democracy. The conclusion emphasizes the advantages of thinking in terms of democratic governance not only for diagnosing and prescribing governmental reforms but also for academics monitoring democratization as a process that may only be partially successful. --
Profiling Tourists for Balanced Utilization of Tourism-Based Resources in Kenya
Full text linkKenya is predominantly a nature-based tourism destination with wildlife (concentrated in the southern part of the country) and beaches (along the Indian Ocean) accounting for over 85% of the international tourists visiting the country. Other attractions are based on the physical landscape of the country and the culture of the people. Unfortunately, the full potential of culture-based attractions has not been exploited. The over-concentration of tourism activities in wildlife protected areas and on the coastal zone has had inherent problems that include severe environmental degradation. The less visited attractions stand the risk of neglect and could be eroded from the nation’s heritage with time. There is need to diversify tourism activities and spread them to other parts of the country by putting more emphasis on non-traditional ones such as cultural excursions. This research profiles tourists based on their preferences as assessed from the number of days they spend at different attraction sites. By associating the characteristics of tourists with various attractions, consumer preference profiles were established. Length of stay, presence of children, travel party size and gender are some of the significant factors that determined the profiles. Profiles can be used in encouraging proportionately more tourists with greater affinity for non-traditional attractions. Besides gender, other factors such as socio-economic status and whether one is travelling as a couple or not, turned out to be significant variables in influencing the resulting expenditure levels.Tourist profiles, Attractions, Culture, Expenditure, LISREL, Kenya
The tribulations of trials: Lessons learnt recruiting 777 older adults into REtirement in ACTion (REACT), a trial of a community, group-based active ageing intervention targeting mobility disability
Full text linkThis is the author accepted manuscriptBackground: Challenges of recruitment to randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and successful strategies to overcome them should be clearly reported to improve recruitment into future trials. REtirement in ACTion (REACT) is a UK-based multi-centre RCT recruiting older adults at high risk of mobility disability to a 12-month group-based exercise and behaviour maintenance programme or to a minimal Healthy Ageing control intervention.
Methods:The recruitment target was 768 adults, aged 65 years and older scoring 4 to 9 on the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Recruitment methods included: a) invitations mailed by General Practitioners (GPs); b) invitations distributed via third sector organisations; c) public relations (PR) campaign. Yields, efficiency and costs were calculated.
Results: The study recruited 777 (33.9% men) community-dwelling, older adults (mean age 77.55 years (SD 6.79), mean SPPB score 7.37 (SD 1.56)), 95.11% white (n=739) and broadly representative of UK quintiles of deprivation. Over a 20-month recruitment period, 25,559 invitations were issued. Eighty-eight percent of participants were recruited via GP invitations, 5.4% via the PR campaign, 3% via word-of-mouth and 2.5% via third sector organisations. Mean recruitment cost per participant was £78.47, with an extra £26.54 per recruit paid to GPs to cover research costs.
Conclusions: REACT successfully recruited to target. Response rates were lower than initially predicted and recruitment timescales required adjustment. Written invitations from General Practitioners were the most efficient method for recruiting older adults at risk of mobility disability. Targeted efforts could achieve more ethnically diverse cohorts. All trials should be required to provide recruitment data to enable evidence-based planning of future trials.National Institute for Health Research, Public Health Research Programm
The importance of branding in industrial markets
Full text linkDemonstrations of the power of branding in consumer markets reverberate
around the globe. In contrast, the role of branding in industrial markets is
unclear and under-researched. Three basic questions stimulate the thesis: (1)
What is industrial branding?; (2) Is industrial branding important, and if so, to
whom?; and (3) What are the implications of industrial branding for managers?
Industrial branding is the process of increasing the meaningful differentiation of
an industrial product by developing added values or benefits of the brand and
communicating them to the customer. The thesis introduces a continuum of
industrial brands from commodities to independent brands. Functional benefits
form the foundation of value, yet industrial branding emphasises that intangible
and emotional values can also affect the choices customers make. Successful
branding engineers a close fit between the benefits desired by customers and the
tangible and intangible features of the brand. The pinwheel of brand value to the
industrial customer captures the dynamics of the situation.
Most previous research examines branding from the seller's perspective. Instead,
the thesis utiises in-depth interviews to gain insights into the perceived benefits
of branding to the buyer. Then, two extensive surveys of UK industrial buyers
contribute to knowledge by successfully measuring the importance of branding in
specific product markets (bearings and circuit-breakers).
Analysis of the survey data reveals that branding is important, but not to all
buyers or in all situations. The data are used to test hypotheses emanating from a
preliminary new model of industrial branding in the purchase decision process.
Cluster analysis is used for benefit segmentation, the grouping of customers by
the perceived importance of choice criteria or attributes. The relative importance
of branding is a significant factor in the creation of three buyer clusters. Firms in
the branding receptive cluster highly value branding attributes such as how well
known the company is, the company's general reputation, and the number of
prior purchases from the company. Firms in the high tangibility cluster value
tangible attributes such as physical product properties and price most highly, and
branding least highly. Firms in the low relevancy cluster show low interest in the
purchase and rate all the attributes relatively low in importance.
Previous research has shown the difficulty of linking benefit segments to more
accessible characteristics. However, in the thesis, attribute importance of firms
in the three segments is related to a number of buyer, purchase, and decision
process characteristics. Branding importance is related to aspects such as buyer
expertise, perceived risk, and the level of involvement in the decision process.
Finally, the thesis offers suggestions for adjusting the marketing mix for buyers
in each of the clusters. These recommendations recognise that segmentation
analysis is only as good as how well it can be utilised by the sales force.
Overall, the thesis provides evidence of the power of industrial branding, and
helps explain its importance. For a significant portion of buyers, the purchase
decision comes down to the relatively intangible attributes of the company brand.
Despite this, the potential of industrial branding remains relatively untapped
Applications of hidden Markov models in financial modelling
Full text linkThis thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University.Various models driven by a hidden Markov chain in discrete or continuous time
are developed to capture the stylised features of market variables whose levels or
values constitute as the underliers of financial derivative contracts or investment
portfolios. Since the parameters are switching regimes, the changes and developments
in the economy as soon as they arise are readily reflected in these models.
The change of probability measure technique and the EM algorithm are fundamental
techniques utilised in the optimal parameter estimation. Recursive adaptive
filters for the state of the Markov chain and other auxiliary processes related to
the Markov chain are derived which in turn yield self-tuning dynamic financial
models. A hidden Markov model (HMM)-based modelling set-up for commodity
prices is developed and the predictability of the gold market under this setting is
examined. An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model with HMM parameters is proposed
and under this set-up, we address two statistical inference issues: the sensitivity
of the model to small changes in parameter estimates and the selection of the optimal
number of states. The extended OU model is implemented on a data set of
30-day Canadian T-bill yields. An exponential of a Markov-switching OU process
plus a compound Poisson process is put forward as a model for the evolution of
electricity spot prices. Using a data set compiled by Nord Pool, we illustrate the
vast improvements gained in incorporating regimes in the model. A multivariate
HMM is employed as a framework in providing the solutions of two asset allocation
problems; one involves the mean-variance utility function and the other entails the
CVaR constraint. Finally, the valuation of credit default swaps highlights the important
considerations necessitated by pricing in a regime-switching environment.
Certain numerical schemes are applied to obtain approximations for the default
probabilities and swap rates.Brunel Research Initiative and Enterprise Fund (BRIEF) and European Union (Marie Curie Fellowship
