88 research outputs found
The impact of climate and societal change on food and nutrition security : a case study of Malawi
Get PDFACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors thank Keith Wiebe and Shahnila Dunston at IFPRI for providing data for use in this study. The authors also thank Heather Clark at the Rowett Institute for her help with the nutrition calculations. Open Access via the Jisc Wiley Agreement Funding information: This work was funded by a PhD studentship for Charlotte Hall from the Scottish Food Security Alliance‐Crops (Universities of Aberdeen and Dundee and the James Hutton Institute) and contributes to the Belmont Forum funded DEVIL and ESPA ASSETS projects (NERC funding contributions: NE/M021327/1 and NE/J002267‐1, respectively). Jennie Macdiarmid acknowledges funding from the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services, Scottish Government.Peer reviewe
The challenge of feeding the world while preserving natural resources: Findings of a global bioeconomic model
No full textThe Challenge of Feeding the World While Preserving Natural Resources: Findings of a Global Bioeconomic Model
No full textExtended Results from the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT version 3.2.1) for Sulser et al (2015)
No full textPolicy makers, analysts, and civil society face increasing challenges to reducing hunger and improving food security in a sustainable way. Modeling alternative future scenarios and assessing their outcomes can help inform their choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute's IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for exploration such scenarios.
At IMPACT's core is a partial equilibrium, multimarket economic model that simulates national and international agricultural markets. Links to climate, water, and crop models support the integrated study of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis of a variety of critical issues of interest to policy makers at national, regional, and global levels. IMPACT benefits from close interactions with scientists at all 15 CGIAR research centers through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program, and with other leading global economic modeling efforts around the world through Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).
This dataset is an extended set of results from IMPACT version 3.2.1 generated for the analysis originally presented in Sulser et al (2015) and covers “baseline scenarios” of different socioeconomic assumptions, climate change, and no climate change from 2010 to 2050.IMPACT; IFPRI1; Open Access; Global Futures and Strategic ForesightEPTD; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Crash-testing policies; How scenarios can support climate change policy formulation A methodological guide with case studies from Latin America
No full textThe objective of this handbook is to guide policy makers and practitioners from the public, private and research sector in the development and use of scenarios to support the inclusive formulation of policies and other decision-making processes related to complex issues taking place in changing environments. The lessons shared are based on nine policy formulation processes for climate in Latin America supported by the CCAFS future scenarios project since 2013. Five of these cases are discussed to exemplify the steps described to use scenarios and support the development of policies.Non-PRIFPRI5; CRP7EPTDCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS
A Bayesian methodology for building consistent datasets for structural modeling
No full textSimulation models are powerful tools that help us understand, analyze, and explain dynamic, complex systems. They provide empirical methodologies to explore how systems and agents behave and consider how they may change when responding to shocks and stresses. The power of these tools, however, depends on the quality of the data on which they are built. Many complex systems studied in the social sciences, including economic systems, are characterized by sparseness of available data on behavioral characteristics and system outcomes. Generally, there is no single data source that can provide all the necessary information and detail for building a complex, structural, simulation model. Even where good data are available, few datasets are “model ready” without a lot of processing and cleaning. To populate models with data requires significant effort to stitch together a complete, coherent, and model-consistent dataset from a multitude of sources that vary in scope, time-scale, completeness, and quality. Due to information scarcity and variable quality, this challenge is well-suited to a Bayesian approach to efficiently use all available data. To this end, we present a data management system where we apply information theoretic, cross-entropy estimation methods to various FAO agricultural datasets to generate a complete global database of agricultural production, demand, and trade for use in IFPRI’s IMPACT model, a global agricultural partial equilibrium multi-market model. We will describe the information theory that serves as the foundation of this methodology, as well as the practical implementation for use in IMPACT. This data estimation methodology was developed for a partial equilibrium modeling framework, but the principals presented, are applicable to other data processing problems, where there is sparse and poor-quality data (e.g., data for computable general equilibrium models)
Impact of climate change on agriculture in Kazakhstan
No full textUsing the Global IMPACT model, we investigate the probable effect of climate change on the performance of agriculture and socio-economic conditions in Kazakhstan under five climate-change scenarios. These include a baseline and four climate-change scenarios (MIROC, Hadgem, GFDL, and IPSL) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). More specifically, we focus on climate-change impact on the production of wheat, potatoes, cotton, maize, rice, and barley. The results suggest that increased temperatures and precipitation will hurt spring crop yields such as wheat and barley. Climate change will probably positively impact the yields of winter varieties of wheat and barley and enable farmers to practise multiple cropping during a farming season. Rice yield is also expected to increase due to climate change, but the yield of potatoes is projected to be adversely affected. Therefore, climate change will be one of the critical challenges for improving agricultural productivity, household welfare, and ensuring food and nutrition security in Kazakhstan
Climate change impacts in El Salvador’s economy: The agriculture sector
No full textThis report finds that by 2050 the negative effect of climate change on agricultural productivity in El Salvador will be among the highest in the region. Of the food crops, sorghum will have losses due to climate at around 14 percent; maize at 13 percent; and rice at 11 percent. Sugar cane will potentially lose 36 percent due to climate change. Furthermore, El Salvador will possibly be the country hit harder in the coffee sector than any other country in the world, with a loss of more than 35 percent of the suitable coffee growing area (Ovalle-Rivera et al. 2015). Livestock productivity, as well, will be impacted by the higher temperatures. Recommendations for policy makers are presented that will help deal with the multi-pronged threat that climate change brings to the agricultural sector of El Salvador
Climate change, agriculture, and adaptation options for Guatemala
No full textClimate change will be a significant challenge to farmers in Guatemala. In this report, we use climate models, crop models, and economic models to evaluate the impact of climate change at 50-kilometer resolution inside Guatemala and at the national level. We find that both maize and beans will likely have their yields set back by around 14 percent by climate change by 2050. Sugarcane could lose quite a bit more, maybe as high as 35 percent. And that there could be considerable disruption to coffee production, as coffee grown in lower elevations today will likely be not economically viable by 2050. Much can be done to reduce the adverse impact of climate change, and as a result of the analysis done here, we make recommendations to policymakers for actions that they should take to help farmers adapt to the changing climate
The effects of widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture in Africa south of the Sahara under changing climate regimes
No full textChapter 3 shows the benefits of CSA adoption but also its limits when the approach is interpreted in a restrictive way and applied only to crop production
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