1,721,114 research outputs found

    A note on compatibility of conditional autoregressive models

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    Suppose that, to assess the joint distribution of a random vector (X1,,Xn)(X_1,\ldots,X_n), one selects the kernels Q1,,QnQ_1,\ldots,Q_n with QiQ_i to be regarded as a possible conditional distribution for XiX_i given (Xj:ji)(X_j:j\ne i); Q1,,QnQ_1,\ldots,Q_n are compatible if there exists a joint distribution for (X1,,Xn)(X_1,\ldots,X_n) with conditionals Q1,,QnQ_1,\ldots,Q_n. Similarly, Q1,,QnQ_1,\ldots,Q_n are improperly compatible if they can be obtained, according to the usual rule, with an improper distribution in place of a probability distribution. In this paper, compatibility and improper compatibility of Q1,,QnQ_1,\ldots,Q_n are characterized under some assumptions on their functional form. The characterization applies, in particular, if each QiQ_i belongs to a one parameter exponential family. Special attention is paid to Gaussian conditional autoregressive models

    Incorporating gravity model principles into disease mapping

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    The space-time variation of disease risk, considering the closeness and availability of care units, is studied by a hierarchical Bayesian model in a gravitational formulation. The pattern of mortality for Hodgkin’s lymphoma over the last twenty-five years in the Tuscany region and the evaluation of the consequences of distance from the nearest radiation-therapy center are described. Results show a decrease in mortality for Hodgkin’s lymphoma and the attraction exercised by each care units

    Space-time models with time dependent covariates for the analysis of the temporal lag between socio-economic factors and lung cancer mortality

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    The relationship between socioeconomic factors and mortality for lung cancer is investigated. To identify the proper lag time between socioeconomic factors and lung cancer mortality, a space–time hierarchical Bayesian model with time-dependent covariates is adopted. A real example on lung cancer mortality, males, in Tuscany (Italy) during the period 1971–1999, is provided. Results confirm the presence of an association between mortality for lung cancer and socioeconomic factors with a temporal lag (latency time) of at least 10 years
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