99 research outputs found
Regional and sectoral evidence of the macroeconomic effects of labor reallocation: a panel data analysis
No full textThis paper revisits the sectoral shifts hypothesis by examining unemployment fluctuations for 48 U.S. states
over the period 1990:01–2011:12. We develop a panel approach that incorporates dynamics, parameter
heterogeneity, aggregate factors and cross-sectional dependence. Our findings provide support for a positive
and significant effect of the employment dispersion index on unemployment. This outcome is robust under alternative specifications and measures of employment dispersion. The empirical evidence corroborates the presence and relevance of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity among states. The results show that, once unobserved common factors and cross-state heterogeneity are taken into account, labor reallocation has a significant effect on unemployment that is half the size of the estimate when cross sectional dependence is not taken into account
On the significance of labour reallocation for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries
No full textWe explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shifts for 15 European countries. An extensive panel is constructed that allows us the assessment of the impact of labor reallocation on unemployment in the European context. Indexes of labor market turbulence based on alternative sectoral disaggregation are constructed. The effect of labor reallocation on unemployment is found to be positive and significant in all different specifications. This remains robust when we take into account volatility measures in the model
Ανάπτυξη Επιχειρηματικής Ιδέας - Business Plan
No full textΗ συγκεκριμένη εργασία αποτυπώνει τα βήματα τα οποία πρέπει να ακολουθηθούν με σκοπό μια ιδέα να υλοποιηθεί σε προϊόν-υπηρεσία μέσω της δημιουργίας ενός business plan.This project looks into the procedure of transforming an idea into a product-service by creating a business plan
Δοκίμια στη δυναμική του πληθωρισμού, την καμπύλη phillips και την ανοικτή οικονομία
No full textThe present thesis is consisted of three essays, each one focusing on a particular empirical topic of inflation dynamics on the macroeconomy. The main contributions of the PhD thesis are to investigate (1) the effects of inflation on the output inflation trade-off, (2) how inflation dynamics influence the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policy, and finally, (3) how the level of openness affects the structure of inflation. The first essay of the dissertation, entitled “The Output-Inflation Trade-off: International Panel Data Evidence”, examines the output-inflation trade-off, as measured by the slope of the Phillips curve, and provides an investigation of the factors that determine the trade-off. We contribute to the empirical debate by employing a testable extension of the specification used by Ball et al. (1988) into panel data and modeling the output-inflation trade-off as one stage dynamic panel data regression taking into account non-stationarity, dynamics, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Thus, we extend previous empirical evidence that was restricted either to a cross-country or a country-by-country time-series approach. The results, based on a sample of 60 countries over the period 1970-2010, stress the importance of the rate of inflation as the main explanatory factor that influences the effectiveness of nominal demand and suggest that the slope of the Phillips curve - as measured by the trade-off between output and inflation - is higher at lower rates of inflation. These findings corroborate the New Keynesian view of a negative association between the rate of inflation and the output-inflation trade-off. Furthermore, our findings highlight the limitations of all previous time-series and ‘pooled’ cross-sectional analyses and support the necessity to account for heterogeneity and cross sectional dependence in the estimation of the Phillips curve specification. In the second essay, entitled “Do Policy Multipliers Decrease with Inflation?: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach”, we examine the hypothesis that inflation dynamics are essential determinants for the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policy. We extend the literature, by expanding the approach proposed by Koelln et al. (1996) to a dynamic panel data modeling that utilizes interactions between the inflation dynamics and the policy multipliers in order to study the differential effects of fiscal and monetary policy. Building on Chudik and Pesaran (2013) and Chudik et al. (2013), we employ a long run estimation framework that takes into account dynamics, and cross-country heterogeneity and dependence in the panel. The findings, using a panel of 26 OECD countries over the 1961-2011 period, support a diminishing impact of inflation on policy multipliers. Additionally when the analysis turns to the long-run effects of inflation, there is evidence of a negative long-run effect of inflation and its variability on fiscal policy multiplier but less ground for their impact on monetary policy. Thus, our findings verify the hypothesis that high and volatile levels of inflation reduce the magnitude of fiscal policy multiplier and with a lesser impact the monetary policy multiplier for OECD countries. Has openness affected inflation? If yes, how does the level of openness affect the structure of inflation? In the third essay, entitled “Openness, Inflation Dynamics and Output-Inflation Trade-Offs”, we answer these questions, and contribute to the literature of openness and inflation by providing a complete investigation of the channels through which openness may have changed the structure of inflation. Specifically, we explore the impact of openness on inflation dynamics, accounting for both the effects of openness on the level and the variability of inflation, and on the slope of the output-inflation trade-offs, exploring both the level and the variability trade-off. To this end, firstly, we estimate an extended backward looking Phillips curve to assess the effects of openness on the level of inflation and the output-inflation trade-off, and secondly, the analysis departs from previous research, and explores a ‘second-order’ effect of openness on inflation through the lens of an extended Taylor curve. We model the Phillips curve and the Taylor curve as dynamic panel data specifications with interactions and provide empirical evidence for 24 OECD countries over the period 1971-2010. The results suggest that openness has a negative impact on both the level of inflation and the inflation variability. Openness does not have a significant effect on the slope of the Phillips curve, but here is weak evidence of a negative impact on the output-inflation variability trade-off as captured by the Taylor curve.Η παρούσα διατριβή αποτελείται από τρία δοκίμια, όπου το κάθε ένα εστιάζει σε ένα συγκεκριμένο εμπειρικό ζήτημα της δυναμικής του πληθωρισμού στην μακροοικονομία. Οι κύριες συνεισφορές της διδακτορικής διατριβής είναι ότι διερευνά (1) τις επιπτώσεις του πληθωρισμού στην αλληλεπίδραση (trade-off) μεταξύ του συνολικού προϊόντος και του πληθωρισμού, (2) πώς η δυναμική του πληθωρισμού επηρεάζει την αποτελεσματικότητα της δημοσιονομικής και νομισματικής πολιτικής, και, τέλος, (3) πώς το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομίας επηρεάζει τη δομή του πληθωρισμού. Το πρώτο δοκίμιο της διατριβής, εξετάζει την αλληλεπίδραση (trade-off) μεταξύ του συνολικού προϊόντος και του πληθωρισμού, όπως μετράται από την κλίση της καμπύλης Phillips, και παρέχει μια διερεύνηση των παραγόντων που καθορίζουν αυτή την αλληλεπίδραση. Τα αποτελέσματα, που βασίζονται σε ένα δείγμα 60 χωρών για την περίοδο 1970-2010, τονίζουν τη σημασία του επιπέδου του πληθωρισμού ως βασικού παράγοντα που επηρεάζει την αποτελεσματικότητα της ονομαστικής ζήτησης και δείχνουν ότι η κλίση της καμπύλης Phillips - όπως μετράται από την αλληλεπίδραση (trade-off) μεταξύ της συνολικής παραγωγής και του πληθωρισμού - είναι υψηλότερη σε χώρες με χαμηλότερα επίπεδα πληθωρισμού. Στο δεύτερο δοκίμιο εξετάζουμε την υπόθεση ότι η δυναμική του πληθωρισμού είναι καθοριστικός παράγοντας της αποτελεσματικότητας της δημοσιονομικής και νομισματικής πολιτικής. Τα ευρήματα μας, χρησιμοποιώντας ένα δείγμα 26 χώρων του ΟΟΣΑ κατά την περίοδο 1961-2011, υποστηρίζουν μια μειούμενη επίδραση του πληθωρισμού στους πολλαπλασιαστές της δημοσιονομικής και νομισματικής πολιτικής. Επιπλέον, όταν η ανάλυση στρέφεται στις μακροπρόθεσμες επιπτώσεις του πληθωρισμού, υπάρχουν ενδείξεις ενός αρνητικού αποτελέσματος του επιπέδου καθώς και της μεταβλητότητας του πληθωρισμού στον πολλαπλασιαστή της δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής, αλλά λιγότερο έδαφος για τις επιπτώσεις τους στη νομισματική πολιτική. Τα ευρήματά μας επαληθεύουν την υπόθεση ότι υψηλά και ασταθή επίπεδα του πληθωρισμού οδηγούν στην μείωση του μεγέθους του πολλαπλασιαστή της δημοσιονομικής πολιτικής και με μικρότερο αντίκτυπο στην μείωση του πολλαπλασιαστή της νομισματική πολιτική για τις χώρες του ΟΟΣΑ. Το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομία επηρεάζει το επίπεδο του πληθωρισμού; Αν ναι, πώς το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομίας επηρεάζει τη δομή του πληθωρισμού; Στο τρίτο δοκίμιο απαντούμε σε αυτά τα ερωτήματα, και συμβάλλουμε στην βιβλιογραφία της σχέσης μεταξύ της ανοικτής οικονομίας και του πληθωρισμού, παρέχοντας μια πλήρη έρευνα των διαύλων μέσω των οποίων το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομία μπορεί να έχει επηρεάσει τη δομή του πληθωρισμού. Τα αποτελέσματα δείχνουν ότι το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομίας έχει αρνητικές επιπτώσεις τόσο στο επίπεδο του πληθωρισμού όσο και στην μεταβλητότητας του πληθωρισμού. Το επίπεδο της ανοικτής οικονομίας δεν έχει σημαντική επίδραση στην κλίση της καμπύλης Phillips, αλλά έχει ένα μικρό αρνητικό αντίκτυπο στην κλίση της καμπύλης Taylor
The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices
No full textIn this paper, we empirically examine the impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices. Using alternative measures of economic uncertainty for the U.S. we estimate their effects on commodity price volatility by employing both VAR and OLS regression models. We find that the unobservable economic uncertainty measures of Jurado et al. (2015) have a significant and long-lasting positive impact on the volatility of commodity prices. Our results indicate that a positive shock in both macroeconomic and financial uncertainty leads to a persistent increase in the volatility of the broad commodity market index and of the individual commodity prices, with the macroeconomic effect being more significant. The impact is stronger in energy commodities compared to the agricultural and metals markets. In addition, our findings show that the measure of unpredictability of the macroeconomic environment has the most significant impact on the commodity price volatility when compared to the observable measures of economic uncertainty that have a rather small and transitory effect. Finally, we show that uncertainty in the macroeconomy is significantly reduced after the occurrence of large commodity market volatility episodes
Inflation dynamics and the output-inflation trade-off: international panel data evidence
No full textWe explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output-inflation trade-off using a unified single-step approach in a panel data context. A limitation of earlier empirical approaches is that they focus on either cross-country or country-by-country time-series analyses. This paper employs a dynamic heterogeneous panel data specification and uses an all-encompassing estimation framework that accounts for parameter heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, dynamics, and non-stationarity. Our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010. While inflation variability reduces the trade-off for specific periods and country groups, an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the responsiveness of real output to nominal shocks. The findings are in line with the New Keynesian view of a negative association between the rate of inflation and the output-inflation trade-off, as well as with the observed flattening of the Phillips curve over the past decades
The truth of being in vainius bakas’s poetry.
No full textThe final master’s thesis aims to investigate how the distinctiveness of the poetry of the young writer Vainius Bakas spreads through essential motifs. A hermeneutic-phenomenological approach is used for this. All five (except for children’s poetry books) collections of Bakas’s poetry – “Pretekstai” (2009), “Kas vėjo - vėjui” (2014), ‘‘Kaštonų tonai” (2016), ‘‘Tylos fonetika” (2021), ‘‘Pasiklydusios kulkos” (2023) were selected for analysis. Vainius Bakas is a prolific writer who has won many awards, but his work has not been studied or discussed much. This master’s thesis examines the relationship between the subject and nature, themes of love, time, and war prevailing in the author's poetry; the worldview of the subject of the poems, the metaphorical expression of the states of his soul are studied. With the help of hermeneutic-phenomenological analysis, this work examines the truth of being in the work of Vainius Bakas, manifested through various phenomena. The poetic form expresses the survival of present and eternal questions, the paradoxes of being and everyday life. Listening to silence, dialogue with nature is important for the subject of the poems. In Bakas’s poetry, there is a clear dialogue between nature and the lyrical subject – nature is depicted as a reflection of various states of the subject. The inspiring forces of nature, which give the subject the desire to dream, are also important. The work examines the semantics of wind and water, as the most frequent motifs in the author's poetry. Their ambiguity is explained with examples, proving that Bakas’s work is extremely dynamic, the metaphorical expression is not fixed, it varies. Temporality in Bakas’s work is closely related to the cycles of nature. Human life, the variation of the subject's mood is juxtaposed with the transformations of nature, seasonal change. It turns out that childhood memories are very important to Bakas. The poet’s poems recreate childhood experiences, the world of parents, ancestors, and home. Poems remember not only direct, but also indirect experiences – childhood can be remembered not only as experienced, but also as told by relatives, seen in photographs. The author’s poetry is also characterized by irony, especially when glossing over sensitive, painful topics, such as the loss of loved ones, sentimental memories of the dead. For Bakas, tradition is the foundation of all creativity. In his poetry, the author uses many intertexts of Lithuanian and global creativity. The expression of thoughts is close to classical poetry, but in this way the author establishes a dialogue with the past, reflects and delves into eternal themes. Listening to silence is also important for the author, silence is filled with poetic meanings. Key words: hermeneutic phenomenology, Vainius Bakas, poetry, being, literature tradition
Unemployment by Gender: Evidence from EU Countries
No full textThis paper applies panel unit-root tests that allow for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence to examine the validity of hysteresis in gender unemployment rates and gender unemployment gap for a panel of 15 European countries. Addressing breaks, there is evidence
to reject the null hypothesis of hysteresis for the unemployment rates and unemployment gap series. Allowing for both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneous structural breaks this result is reverted and we fail to reject the null hypothesis of unit root
The Generation: Between Everyday Myth and Social Science
No full textTranslated from "Continuité et discontinuité: vivre sa génération", in Eric Landowski, Société réfléchie (Paris: Seuil, 1989) (the title of the chapter has been changed in the translation in agreement with the author).
Translated from French by Modestas Bakas
Translation checked, foreword and comments by Nijolė Keršyt
Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty
No full textIn this paper, we empirically examine the predictive power of macroeconomic uncertainty on the volatility of agricultural, energy and metals commodity markets. We find that the latent macroeconomic uncertainty measure of Jurado et al. (2015) is a common volatility forecasting factor for commodity markets, which provides statistically significant volatility predictions for forecasting horizons up to twelve months ahead. The results indicate that the forecasting power of macroeconomic uncertainty is higher when predicting the volatility of energy commodities. Our findings also show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty is associated with large volatility episodes subsequently observed in all commodity markets. The predictive power of the unobservable macroeconomic uncertainty factor remains robust to the inclusion of observable economic uncertainty measures, historical commodity price volatility, stock-market realized and news implied volatility, oil price shocks and other macroeconomic variables which are closely related to the production process and the mechanics of commodity markets
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