9 research outputs found
Company Valuation: The Most Widely Used Valuation Methods in Bulgaria
No full textThe main objective of this research paper is to discuss the approaches, methods and models used for the valuation of companies. The valuation of companies is a serious challenge for financial analysts and appraisers all over the world, due to the fact that value is invisible and difficult to find. This is one of the reasons for the high number of methods and models developed for this purpose, as well as the many different classifications for them. One of the challenges is the selection of the appropriate combination of methods.
This research starts with an overview of other studies about the most preferred valuation methods by certified financial analysts in Europe and the world as a whole. The studies indicate that only few methods and models are intensively used by analysts. The most preferred and widely used methods by them are the relative methods, followed by the DCF enterprise model. A survey was conducted by the author among actively operating certified appraisers in Bulgaria. The survey shows that, in general, Bulgarian appraisers prefer and use mostly the same methods that are used by financial analysts in Europe and other international markets. Still, there are some curious differences – the DCF enterprise model is again very intensively used, but the confidence in the relative valuation methods, according to respondents, is very low in Bulgaria. At the same time, the other widely applied method by appraisers in Bulgaria is the net asset value (NAV) method, contrary to the fact that they do not particularly trust it
US Stock Market at the Background of the Covid-19 Pandemic: Implication for Valuation
No full textThe main objective of this study is to discuss the forces driving today’s US stock market levels, in an attempt of assessing their reasonability. This is not the first research of this kind of the author, but the approach now is a little bit different. Some important issues are raised regarding the different types of players on the stock market and their potential influence on its dynamics. The S&P 500 PE ratios are analyzed in historic plan and subsequently used for deriving the implied capitalization rateand cost of equity for different sub-periods. The results indicate for atypically high current PE ratios, and unreasonably low cost of equity. One of the conclusions is that to a great extent this is caused by the policy of low interest rates and quantitative easing, and is an important factor driving high price levels in the short run. It is not logical to accept this as a normal cost of equity level, meaning that it could not be sustainable in the long run. The implication for valuation of stocks is thatfundamental analysts and investors would better avoid the temptation of using the current cost of equity as it is not representative for the purpose of fundamental models
An analytical approach to comparing actual vs. fundamental “price-to-sales” and “enterprise value-to-sales” ratios on the European stock market
No full textThis study is focused on the “price-to-sales ratio” (P/S) and the “enterprise value-to-sales ratio” (EV/S), which are used in relative valuation, in the analysis of companies’ performance, as well as in the analysis of different sectors and of the market. Special attention is paid to certain important requirements, related to the correct interpretation of market and sector averages of these ratios nowadays, including against the background of their historic levels.
The identification, justification and use of the proper market ratios requires in-depth knowledge of their essence and of the fundamentals which drive their levels. In this connection, the logic of the fundamental “price-to-sales” (P/S) and the “enterprise value-to-sales” (EV/S) ratios is explained.
These two fundamental ratios for the European stock market are calculated and compared with the actual P/S and EV/S. The results of the study indicate that the current levels of the actual P/S and EV/S of the European stock market are much higher than the levels suggested by fundamentals.peer-reviewe
Dynamics of Stock Prices on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange Against the Background of Fundamentals
No full textThe subject of this research is the performance of stocks on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE). The main issue of interest is whether the index price levels are supported by fundamentals or if there is a bubble or undervaluation on the BG stock market. The purpose of this research is to explore the true level of indexes at the BSE, as dictated by fundamentals, and compare it with actual index levels. The research method is based on the comparative analysis of price-earnings ratios (PEs) and price-to-book ratios (PBVs) of the index during the analyzed period. The 2024 PE and PBV of the index are compared with fundamental PE and PBV ratios of the BGBX 40 index, which are derived from the fundamentals, determining the value of stocks in the index. The actual PE and PBV ratios of BGBX 40 look rather low compared with the ones in the leading developed stock markets. At the same time, however, the results of this analysis show that these current PE and PBV ratios are much higher than the benchmark values of the fundamental PE and PBV ratios. In this regard, the current price levels of stocks at the Bulgarian Stock Exchange in 2024 do not seem supported by fundamentals
Surgical Treatment of Thyroid Nodules. Argon Plasma and Minimally Invasive Thyroid Resection - Indications and Surgical Techniques // Хирургическо лечение на възлите в щитовидната жлеза. Аргон плазмени и миниинвазивни тиреоидни резекции - индикации и хирургични техники
No full textВъзлите в щитовидната жлеза са най-честата ендокринна патология, с която се среща хирургът. Основен проблем и предизвикателство пред клинициста е изборът на адекватно поведение, правилният подбор на възлите, изискващи хирургическо лечение. В последните години на XX век в хирургията на щитовидната жлеза навлязоха съвременните принципи и техники на миниинвазивната хирургия, чиято стойност, индикации и ограничения тепърва ще се уточняват. Целта на дисертацията е да се проучат, разработят и внедрят в клиничната практика тиреоидните резекции с миниинвазивен открит достъп и аргон плазмените тиреоидни резекции в рамките на оптимизиран диагностично-лечебен подход при болните с тиреоидни възли. От 01.01.2003 г. при оперативното лечение на тиреоидните възли е внедрена от автора миниинвазивна техника на открита тиреоидна резекция, с която до 30.06.2005 г. са оперирани 237 болни. За същия период от време при 97 болни, оперирани с конвенционален достъп, и при 67 болни, оперирани с миниинвазивен достъп резекцията на ЩЖ е извършвана по разработена от автора методика, използваща аргон плазмен коагулатор - аргонплазмена тиреоидна резекция /АПТР/. Анализът на получените резултати показва, че тиреоидните резекции с миниинвазивен открит достъп съчетават предимствата на конвенционалните резекции на щитовидната жлеза и ендоскопските тиреоидектомии, като в същото време голяма част от ограниченията и недостатъците на двата метода се избягват. Техниката позволява да се минимизира хирургичната травма и да се подобри козметичният резултат, като същевременно се извършва необходимият обем на резекция. Достоверно е снижен следоперативният болничен престой. Разработен е практически алгоритъм за поведение при болни с тиреоидни възли, в които са намерили място нововъведените методи за оперативно лечение на тиреоидните възли.Thyroid nodules are the most common endocrine pathology encountered by surgeons. The main challenge for clinicians is the choice of adequate treatment behaviour and proper selection of nodules requiring surgical treatment. Modern principles and techniques of minimally invasive surgery were introduced in thyroid surgery at the end of the twentieth century. The aim of this thesis is to investigate, develop and implement in clinical practice minimally invasive open access thyroid resection and argon plasma thyroid resection within an optimized diagnostic and treatment approach for patients with thyroid nodules. Minimally invasive open access thyroid resection has been implemented by the author of this thesis in the operative treatment of thyroid nodules since the beginning of 2003. Within the period till June 2005, 237 patients were surgically treated. Within this same period of time 97 patients underwent conventional surgery, and 67 patients were operated with minimally invasive access. The thyroid gland resection was performed according to a developed by the author method using argon plasma coagulant – argon plasma thyroid resection (APTR). Analysis of the results revealed that minimally invasive open-access thyroid resections combine the advantages of conventional thyroid resection and endoscopic thyroidectomy, while at the same time many of the limitations and disadvantages of both methods are avoided. This technique allows minimization of the surgical trauma and improved cosmetic effect whilst the necessary resection volume is performed. The postoperative hospital stay is credibly reduced. A practical algorithm for patients with thyroid nodules has been developed where the newly introduced methods to be applied
LLM services in the management of social communications
No full textThis paper proposes enhancing social communication management with a behavioral economics approach through artificial intelligence instruments. The research aims to explore the influence of social communication on citizens’ behavior using large language model services and assess its effectiveness. The paper builds on Daniel Kahneman’s dual-process theory, highlighting the intuitive system (System 1) and the rational system (System 2) in decision-making. The author introduces a third system, System 3, representing rooted in identity socially conditioned behavior influenced by societal norms and self-awareness. On this theoretical basis, the paper emphasizes automating communication management through large language model services, freeing up citizens’ potential for self-determination and self-organization. By leveraging these services, messages can be crafted to support social transformation while respecting historical, cultural, and political contexts. Based on the preconditions and restrictions described above, we use GPT-4 model to generate messages based on these narratives. The experiment will use an observational study design with virtual persons. To compare the impact of original and modified messages according to the addressee’s mentality, we used the Claude 3.5 Sonnet model. We can see that the potential activity of respondents after perceiving the changed message does not change much, and the original message is perceived. Modifying messages by LLM services crafted to support social transformation while respecting historical, cultural, and political contexts cause attitudes to become substantially more negative (2.5 units downward shift in median); the intentions showed a slight positive increase (0.2 units upward change in median)
LLM services in the management of social communications
No full textThis paper proposes enhancing social communication management with a behavioral economics approach through artificial intelligence instruments. The research aims to explore the influence of social communication on citizens’ behavior using large language model services and assess its effectiveness. The paper builds on Daniel Kahneman’s dual-process theory, highlighting the intuitive system (System 1) and the rational system (System 2) in decision-making. The author introduces a third system, System 3, representing rooted in identity socially conditioned behavior influenced by societal norms and self-awareness. On this theoretical basis, the paper emphasizes automating communication management through large language model services, freeing up citizens’ potential for self-determination and self-organization. By leveraging these services, messages can be crafted to support social transformation while respecting historical, cultural, and political contexts. Based on the preconditions and restrictions described above, we use GPT-4 model to generate messages based on these narratives. The experiment will use an observational study design with virtual persons. To compare the impact of original and modified messages according to the addressee’s mentality, we used the Claude 3.5 Sonnet model. We can see that the potential activity of respondents after perceiving the changed message does not change much, and the original message is perceived. Modifying messages by LLM services crafted to support social transformation while respecting historical, cultural, and political contexts cause attitudes to become substantially more negative (2.5 units downward shift in median); the intentions showed a slight positive increase (0.2 units upward change in median)
