1,720,995 research outputs found
Base rate neglect for the wealth of populations
Full text linkBase rate neglect has been shown to be a very robust bias in human information processing. It has also been show to be ecologically rational in some environments. However, when arguing about base rate neglect usually isolated individuals are considered. I complement these results by showing that in many scenarios of social learning a base rate neglect increases a population's wealth. I thereby strengthen the argument that the presence of base rate neglect could be evolutionary stable. I pick up a model of social learning that has been used to demonstrate the potential benefits of overconfidence. Individuals are confronted with a safe and a risky option. They receive a private signal about the risky option's outcome, they decide in an exogenously given sequence, and they observe decisions of preceding individuals. I first deviate from the original model by incorporating base rates that differ from fifty-fifty and show that under weighting this base rate can be for the wealth of a population. Then I analyse how the optimal base rate neglect reacts to changes in payoffs. I show that for large set of settings under weighting the base rate is still positive, but for a smaller subset it decreases wealth insteadcognitive biases, base rate neglect, social learning, ecological rationality
Negotiating Agents: From Full Autonomy to Dynamic Degrees of Delegation ABSTRACT
No full textThe modularization of negotiating agents as proposed by the C-IPS approach provides a sound base for a concept that we call dynamic degrees of delegation. Agents following this concept enable their users at runtime to delegate particular subsets of decision to their artificial agents. We extend the specification and implementation of fully autonomous agents to capture this concept. We have successfully implemented such a system for a sociological experiment
Attitude Dynamics with Limited Verbalisation Capabilities
Full text linkThis article offers a new perspective for research on opinion dynamics. It demonstrates the importance of the distinction of opinion and attitude, which originally has been discussed in literature on consumer behaviour. As opinions are verbalised attitudes not only biases in interpretation and adoption processes have to be considered but also verbalisation biases should be addressed. Such biases can be caused by language deficits or social norms. The model presented in this article captures the basic features of common opinion dynamic models and additionally biases in the verbalisation process. Further, it gives a first analysis of this model and shows that precision as bias in the verbalisation process can influence the dynamics significantly. Presenting and applying the concept of area of influential attitudes the impact of each parameter (selective attitude, selective interpretation, and precision) is analysed independently. Some preliminary results for combined effects are presented.Opinion dynamics, attitude dynamics, verbalisation, selective attitude, selective interpretation, area of influential attitudes
K.: C-ips approach to negotiating agents: Specifying dynamic interdependencies between issue, partner, and step
No full textOur C-IPS approach to negotiating agents considers the choice of negotiation issues, partners and steps as separate restricted decision processes. Here we focus on specification of dynamic interdependencies between these decisions and illustrate this by modeling sequential dependencies for an idealized scenario. The explicit modeling of all involved decisions and dependencies eases the understanding, evaluation, and comparison of different approaches to negotiating agents. 1. Introducing the C-IPS approach An influential conceptualization of negotiation, which is an often applied mechanism to resolve conflicts in multiagent systems, distinguishes between negotiation object, protocol, and agent’s internal reasoning process [2, 3]. Although issue and partner selection are very important (e.g. [1, 4]), these aspects are not explicitly considered nor is an adequate structure for the reasoning process provided. But for analysis and modeling negotiating agents the explicit specification of issue, partner, and step selection processes and their dependencies is crucial. Therefore we suggest the C-IPS approach [6]. The C-IPS approach considers decisions that are made during implementation; they are external constraints for runtime decisions taken by the agent. The distinction between protocols and strategies (e.g. [2]) mirrors the same logic but is limited to one type of agent’s decisions. The agent not only decides how to negotiate but also which issue with whom. Constraints can be given by the application domain (exogenous) or by agent designers (endogenous) [5]. External constraints define the joint decisions the agents are able to negotiate, i.e. the negotiation space N. In a negotiation agents consider only subspaces, i.e. negotiation issues. The reduction of large negotiation spaces, i.e. selec-∗ The material in this paper is based upon work supported by DFG unde
BASE RATE NEGLECT FOR THE WEALTH OF INTERACTING PEOPLE
No full textPrevious research investigating base rate neglect as a bias in human information processing has focused on isolated individuals. This study complements this research by showing that in settings of interacting individuals, especially in settings of social learning, where individuals can learn from one another, base rate neglect can increase a population's welfare. This study further supports the research arguing that a population with members biased by neglecting base rates does not need to perform worse than a population with unbiased members. Adapting the model of social learning suggested by Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (The Journal of Political Economy 100 (1992) 992–1026) and including base rates that differ from generic cases such as 50–50, conditions are identified that make underweighting base rate information increasing the population's welfare. The base rate neglect can start a social learning process that otherwise had not been started and thus base rate neglect can generate positive externalities improving a population's welfare.Cognitive biases, base rate neglect, social learning, information cascades, ecological rationality
A Short Measure of Four Types of Personal Optimism: Ability, Rivalry, Chance, and Social Support (ARCS)
No full textSelf-efficacy, which can be defined as optimism about one's own ability to exercise required actions, has received a lot of attention in research on entrepreneurs' and managers' decision making. This attention led to the development of corresponding measurement instruments. However, there is no equivalent measure of the more general personal optimism that jointly captures on equivalent bases abilities and other sources of uncertainty, which one might be more or less optimistic about. I develop a measurement instrument of four dimensions of personal optimism: ability optimism (self- efficacy), rivalry optimism (being better than others), chance optimism (being a lucky devil or fearing of bad-luck), and social support optimism (others help and support me and are trustworthy). Correlations between subscales are intuitive and backed by theory. I replicate corresponding results from previous studies that used different measures, e.g. life-orientation (LOT-R), self-efficacy (NGSE), and social optimism at the societal level from the POSO scale. This new personal optimism measurement instrument is very much like the life-orientation test (LOT-R), but it provides more insights regarding the structure of optimism. Whenever self-efficacy or control beliefs are of interest, the ARCS or ACS scales should be used to control for complementary world beliefs. I also illustrate the special role of one item in NGSE, which in contrast to all other NGSE items refers to a comparative instead of an absolute judgment.personal optimism, social optimism, chance optimism, self-efficacy
Optimistic, but not in Control: Life-Orientation and the Theory of mixed Control
No full textWhy are some people more optimistic about their life than others? Literature on locus of control suggests that optimism is associated with the belief that one’s life outcomes are controlled by internal factors, such as ability, instead of external factors, such as powerful others or chance. Furthermore, some authors suggest that internal control beliefs interact with self-efficacy beliefs regarding their effects on outcome expectancies and thus optimism. We argue that it is not only self-efficacy that interacts, but efficacy beliefs about external factors, too. We further hypothesize that the effect of perceiving internal rather than external control on dispositional optimism depends on the difference between efficacy beliefs regarding internal and external factors. Since people can influence other people to be helpful, i.e., take proxy control, but are unlikely to influence chance, we extend this internal-versus-external view and suggest that the difference between perceived control by others and perceived control by chance affect dispositional optimism. In fact, we hypothesize that the effect of perceiving that it is other people who are in control, rather than chance, depends on the difference between efficacy beliefs regarding others and chance. A first empirical survey-based test produces substantial support for our theory. This is the first time control-efficacy interaction effects are shown for dispositional variables and for the three- dimensional construct of locus of control. We replicate a gender effect on correlations of dispositional optimism with self-reported risk taking and observe a gender effect for one of our new hypotheses.Information, Knowledge, Uncertainty, Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief, Expectations, Speculations
Knowledge Diffusion and Innovation: Modelling Complex Entrepreneurial Behaviours by Piergiuseppe Morone and Richard Taylor: A Response to the Review
Full text linkIn this brief note we reply to C�sar Garc�a-D�az and Diemo Urbig who reviewed our book on Knowledge Diffusion and Innovation (Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, 2010). We take this opportunity to reaffirm our personal view on several relevant issues, such as the need for a holistic view in economics, the adoption of a pragmatic heuristic approach when dealing with complex socio-economic systems, the relevance of a \'prototype model\' to setting a rigorous conceptual framework and the proposition of a novel way of looking at knowledge and innovation.Knowledge Diffusion, Innovation, Agent-Based Model, Validation
Knowledge Diffusion and Innovation: Modelling Complex Entrepreneurial Behaviours by Piergiuseppe Morone and Richard Taylor: A Response to the Review
No full textIn this brief note we reply to César García-Díaz and Diemo Urbig who reviewed our book on Knowledge Diffusion and Innovation (Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, 2010). We take this opportunity to reaffirm our personal view on several relevant issues, such as the need for a holistic view in economics, the adoption of a pragmatic heuristic approach when dealing with complex socio-economic systems, the relevance of a 'prototype model' to setting a rigorous conceptual framework and the proposition of a novel way of looking at knowledge and innovation
Perceptions of Efficacy, Control, and Risk: A Theory of Mixed Control
No full textBased on the aggregated insights of the existing theories related to multiple sources of efficacy and locus of control, we introduce the theory of mixed control, a model of compound-risk perception. This theory considers outcome expectancies as being composed of expectancies regarding three distinct sources of risk (self, others, and chance). This reflects that entrepreneurship is a complex and dynamic activity, involving multiple sources of risk. Beliefs about the efficacy of these elements are weighted by the degree to which these elements are perceived to control the outcome. The interaction of efficacy and control beliefs is therefore at the core of our theory. Further, we discuss that risks are not only subjectively perceived but can be endogenous and depend on future decisions and actions of the entrepreneur.locus of control, self-efficacy, risk perception
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