76 research outputs found
Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies
No full textLike other recent studies, we find the existence of a political deficit cycle in a large cross-section of countries. However, we find that this result is driven by the experience of new democracies'. The strong budget cycle in those countries accounts for the finding of a budget cycle in larger samples that include these countries; when these countries are removed from the larger sample, so that only established' democracies remain, the political budget cycle disappears. The political deficit cycle in new democracies accounts for findings in both developed and less developed economies, for the finding that the cycle is stronger in weaker democracies, and for differences in the political cycle across governmental and electoral systems. Our findings may reconcile two contradictory views of pre-electoral manipulation, one arguing it is a useful instrument to gain voter support and a widespread empirical phenomenon, the other arguing that voters punish rather than reward fiscal manipulation.
Financial Integration and Financial Crisis: Croatia Approaching The EMU
No full textThe breakdown of command economies has significantly increased growth potentials all over Europe and opened up prospects for economic development. Encouraged by that, the EU embarked on the process of deeper economic integration. Its main aspects – economic liberalization and monetary integration – coincided with the worldwide globalization of trade and capital flows. As a laggard country in the process of economic integration, Croatia is in a particularly difficult position – besides soaring trade deficit, it is highly indebted and strongly dependant upon foreign capital. Appreciating theoretical inferences and empirical evidence on monetary integration, while taking reference to the realized level of international financial integration and external vulnerability, the aim of the paper is to find out if Croatia fulfils the criteria for successful monetary integration.optimum currency area, financial integration, external balance, EMU, Central and Eastern Europe
Determinants of FDI in transition countries and estimation of the potential level of Croatian FDI
No full textIn a global economy, foreign direct investment (FDI) represents the main form of international business activities. More than the mere cross-border movement of capital, FDI includes transfer of technology and know-how, thus contributing to competitiveness, employment and trade, and consequently, economic growth and the development of the local economy. The recent drop in international capital flows resulting from global financial and economic crisis has caused concerns regarding growth prospects for the world economy in general and that of less advanced transition countries in particular. By hypothesizing that Croatia, as the next member of the EU, has realized sub-optimal effects in attracting FDI, and that international competition in this field is expected to grow further, the aim of the paper is to find out determining factors behind inward FDI to transition countries, in order to detect the capacities of Croatia in hosting new foreign investment. Statistical analysis, focusing on bilateral FDI-flows and country-specific characteristics, proved the importance of typical ‟gravity”-type variables, as well as those based on increasing returns to scale, while showing that at present Croatia has exhausted its potentials in hosting new FDI
Using Accelerometry to Detect Upper-Extremity Motor Deficits and Delays in Early Childhood
No full textAbstract
Date Presented 3/30/2017
Identifying subtle motor delays in early childhood is challenging. Accelerometry is a novel way to characterize upper-extremity motor patterns in typically developing children. Differences were identified between typically developing children and children with hemiparesis ages 0–5 yr.
Primary Author and Speaker: Catherine Hoyt Drazen
Contributing Authors: Annie Nguyen, Elyse Everet, Melanie Berner, Jonathan Koller, Dustin K. Ragan, Nico U. F. Dosenbach</jats:p
Who would vote for inflation in Brazil? : an integrated framework approach to inflation and income distribution
No full textMost studies of how inflation affects income distribution focus only on wages or the inflation tax. The authors argue that this approach can be misleading as it ignores important channels through which inflation affects income distribution. The authors present an integrated framework that combines interest bearing assets with labor income and cash holdings. This allows them to describe clearly the conditions under which inflation will create gainers and losers. They apply the model to Brazil, which is a prime candidate for this exercise because its economy combines skewed income distribution and high inflation. They show that in Brazil inflation helped worsen income distribution in the 1980s. Their major findings follow. In 1980-1989, the inflation induced income loss for the lowest quintile in Brazil was an estimated 19 percent a year, of which 16 percent is attributable to the erosion of real wages and the rest to the inflation tax. During the same period, Brazil's middle class which lost close to 30 percent of its annual income, was devastated because of its limited access to indexed assets. But the richest quintile managed to insulate itself from inflation by taking advantage of high real interest on demand deposits - without losing from reduced labor income. Had real assets and subsidized credits been considered in the analysis, the regressive effects on inflation would probably have been worse, say the authors. This raises aquestion: Do these findings about the distributional effects of inflation help explain Brazil's delays in adopting a stabilization program?Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Inequality,Banks&Banking Reform
Finite vs infinite decompositions in conformal embeddings
No full textBuilding on work of the first and last author, we prove that an embedding of simple affine vertex algebras , corresponding to an embedding of a maximal equal rank reductive subalgebra into a simple Lie algebra , is conformal if and only if the corresponding central charges are equal. We classify the equal rank conformal embeddings. Furthermore we describe, in almost all cases, when decomposes finitely as a -module
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
No full texttheir patience and guidance during the development of this project. Their combined knowledge and leadership were greatly appreciated. In addition, the author would like to give a special thanks to Diana McDonald, Dr. Drazen Fabris, Dr. Lilia Sanchez, and Dr. Peter Woytowitz for their continued support and expertise. ii TABLE OF CONTENT
Explosive Remnants of War in the Republic of Croatia
No full textExplosive remnants of war represent a constant threat to normal life and activities of the population living in mine-affected areas in the Republic of Croatia. The author considers the extent and impact of unexploded ordnance and other ERW contaminating the country as a consequence of military operations between 1991 and 1995
Benefits and costs of international financial integration : theory and facts
No full textThe author provides a selective review of the recent analytical and empirical literature on the benefits and costs of international financial integration. He discusses the impact of financial openness on consumption, investment, and growth, and the impact of foreign bank entry on the domestic financial system. Consistent with some recent studies, the author argues that financial integration must be carefully prepared and managed to ensure that the benefits outweigh the short-run risks. Prudent macroeconomic management, adequate supervision and prudential regulation of the financial system, greater transparency, and improved capacity to manage risk in the private sector are important requirements for coping with potentially abrupt reversals in pro-cyclical, short-term capital flows. The author adopts a more skeptical view than some assessments in two areas, however. First, only foreign direct investment appears to provide dynamic gains and improved prospects for growth; the evidence on the benefits of other types of capital flows remains weak. Second, empirical research on the net benefits associated with foreign bank penetration is far from conclusive; in particular, the possibility that such penetration may lead to adverse changes in the allocation of credit among domestic firms cannot be dismissed on the basis of the existing evidence.Banks&Banking Reform,Capital Markets and Capital Flows,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Economic Theory&Research,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Macroeconomic Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation
Political models of macroeconomic policy and fiscal reform
No full textThe author explains how recent developments in political economics improve our understanding of macroeconomic policy - especially the timing, design, and likelihood of stabilization's success through monetary and fiscal reform. The author reviews the literature on political business cycles and emphasizes several issues involving the relationship between the timing of elections and the timing of macroeconomic policies and outcomes. He also addresses how models can be useful in studying non-democratic systems. Two forces are crucial factors in both democratic and dictatorial systems, although they may manifest themselves differently: (1) the policymakers'incentive to retain power; and (2) society's polarization and the degree of social conflict. The author then analyzes why economic stabilization is delayed, even when it is obvious that sooner or later a stabilization program will have to be adopted. Some points made in the paper follow. Certain institutional characteristics make quick and successful stabilization more or less likely. The more unequal the distribution of stabilization's costs, the more likely that stabilization will be delayed. An increase in the cost of postponing stabilization reduces the delay. Political institutions that make it easier for small interest groups to veto legislation make delay more likely. If political and economic resources are unequally distributed, and it is obvious which group is stronger and has resources to wait longer, a war of attrition ends immediately, as there is no uncertainty about who will win it. Delay is more likely when information about who will bear the cost of delays is uncertain or unevenly distributed. Delay is also more likely when there is agreement about the need for fiscal change but a political stalemate about distribution - about how the burden of higher taxes or spending cuts should be allocated. Stabilization usually occurs when there is political consolidation. The burden of stabilization is sometimes unequal, with the politically weaker group (often the lower classes) bearing a larger burden (often regressive measures). If it is in the interest of the current government to do nothing for fear of failure because of government incompetence, the public may have no incentive to vote for the opposition because the opposition may also do nothing; the crucial factor here is how aware the government is of its own incompetence and thus its reasons for not attempting reform. Successful stabilization usually comes after several failed attempts, and the successful program is often very much like one that failed.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,National Governance,ICT Policy and Strategies,Health Economics&Finance
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