12 research outputs found
Chi xu huo qu ji ben yao pin de di qu ji zhong cai gou ce lüe: gei dong Fei guo jia de qi shi
No full textBedada, Haweni Ketema.Thesis M.Phil. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2014.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 116-122).Abstracts also in Chinese.Title from PDF title page (viewed on 27, September, 2016).Bedada, Haweni Ketema
Statistical Analysis of Road Traffic Accident in Addis Ababa: Application of SARIMA and SETAR model
No full textRoad traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of injuries and death in both developed and
developing countries. According to WHO, 1.35 million people die each year as a result of road
traffic accidents globally. Ethiopia is one of the developing countries and at least 114 people die
for every 10,000 vehicle accidents annually. Moreover, road traffic accident the capital city, Addis
Ababa resulting in thousands of physical injuries and costing the economy in millions of dollars.
Hence, time series analysis related to the road traffic accident has a very important place in
revealing the future trends of the accident and decision making process. Therefore, this study
focuses on statistical analysis of road traffic accident using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (SARIMA) and Self-Excited Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) time series
models. Data were obtained from Addis Ababa Traffic Police Commission and temporally
aggregated from January 2004 to December 2018 for analysis purpose. Data analyses were
performed using R and S-plus statistical software. The estimated trend component of RTA showed
a rising trend from 2010 to 2016 G.C .Furthermore, road traffic accident most frequently occurs
during the rainy seasons (June, July and August) of Ethiopia. The two regime SETAR model was
adopted to accommodate non linearity and linear SARIMA model was fitted as a benchmark for
comparative analysis. The model was nominated from SARIMA and SETAR models based on the
selection criteria and model comparison was made between the selected models. Nonlinear
SETAR(2,8,8) outperformed forecast than linear SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,2) 12 model for road traffic
accident of Addis Ababa. The out sample forecasted value indicates that, road traffic accident has
an increasing trend over the forecasted period
Magnitude and obstetric complication of twin deliveries in Nekemte referral hospital, east wollega zone, ethiopia, 2017 g. C
No full textBackground: Twin pregnancy is a high risk pregnancy with increased risk of obstetric
complications which have important implications on the Perinatal outcome. This situation is
worse in Sub-Saharan Africa due to lack of well-equipped facilities. However, studies on twin
pregnancy and its maternal and fetal outcomes are limited in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to
fill this gap.
Objectives: The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence, and compare obstetric
complications of twin and singleton deliveries in Nekemte referral hospital from March 1/2016 -
February 30/2017 G.C.
Method: Hospital-based unmatched Case-control study design was carried-out on all mothers
delivered in obstetrics ward of Nekemte Referral Hospital from March 1, 2016 to February 30 ,
2017 after 28 completed weeks with their corresponding records and charts. The data was
collected through pretested structured check list and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. First
descriptive statistics done then odds ratio along with their 95% confidence intervals were
determined to measure the existence of significant associations between twin delivery and each
maternal and fetal complication by using chi-squared (χ2) test, Fisher- Exact test was used when
the assumption of the χ2- test was not fulfilled.
Results: The incidence of twin deliveries were 28.6 in 1000 deliveries. Hypertensive disorder of
pregnancy(OR=2.1;95%CI=1.54,2.86), preterm labor(OR=2.76;95% CI=2.12,3.40),
prematureruptureofmembrane(OR=1.87;95%CI=1.28,2.73),antepartumhemorrhage(OR=1.80;95
%CI=1.09,2.99),cesareandelivery(OR=2.50;95%CI=1.88,3.34),anemia(OR=1.77;95%CI=1.24,2.
52),postpartumhemorrhage(OR=1.27;95%CI=0.77,2.11),sepsis(OR=2.18;95%CI=1.46,3.25),cor
dprolapse(OR=2.33;95%CI=1.51,3.84), and blood transfusion(OR=1.74;95%CI=0.90,3.38) were
ante partum, intrapartum and postpartum maternal complications of twin deliveries. Low
APGARscoreat1stminute(OR=1.75;95%CI=1.29,2.37),lowbirthweight(OR=3.36;95%CI=2.61,4.
31),neonatalinnsivecareunitadmission(OR=2.95;95%CI=2.25,3.89),andearlyneonataldeath(OR=2
.46;95%CI=1.81,3.34) were the major perinatal complications.
Conclusion: The prevalence of twin pregnancies in this study was high. The likelihood of
developing hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, preterm labor, premature rupture of membrane,
ante partum hemorrhage, cesarean delivery, cord prolapse, anemia, postpartum hemorrhage,
puerperal sepsis, blood transfusion, low Apgar score at 1st minute, low birth weight, neonatal
intensive care unit admission, and early neonatal death was significantly higher in twin deliveries
when compared with singleton deliveries. Therefore, greater emphasis should be given on the
area of adequate blood service, newborn resuscitation, and standard care for mothers with
premature rupture of membrane, to prevent maternal and perinatal complication related to twin
deliveries
Longitudinal And genotaype By Environment Interaction Analysis Of Arabica Coffee Bean Yield In South West Ethiopia: Application Of Linear Mixed Model
No full textBackground: Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is the fine flavored, aromatic type makes up 60-
65% of total production and usually fetches the highest prices. Arabica Coffee is the most important
and backbone of Ethiopian economy, which accounts for an average 60% of export earnings. Coffee
is a perennial crop which can be harvested multiple times of years, and it is known to be affected
with a characteristic biennial, which is more pronounced in the species Arabica coffee. The
immediate objective of this study was to analyze Arabica coffee bean yield longitudinally by using
Linear Mixed Model (LMM), and to assess its Genotype by Environment interaction (GEI). Coffee
Bean Yield (CBY), Coffee Yield, and Yield are used interchangeably in this document.
Methods: The data for this study came from coffee variety field trials conducted by Jimma
Agricultural Research Center (JARC) over several years. The trial was conducted in south west
Ethiopia across coffee growing areas (Jimma, Agaro, and Metu). The experimental design of the trial
was RCBD with 4 replications and 17 Arabica coffee genotypes. A complete CBY data set of these
coffee growing areas which had been collected during 2005-2011 was considered in this study.
Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) and LMM were employed for longitudinal analysis, whereas
combined ANOVA and AMMI model were used for GEI analysis. All analyses were done with the
help of R statistical package.
Results: The LMM results revealed that the heterogeneous variance function (varIdent(t)) and
autoregressive order three (AR3) were, respectively, found to give better fit to the variance and
correlation structure among measurements of CBY. Biennial interacts significantly with location and
genotype. The estimated variance of random effect of block associated with intercept and biennial
were (b0j) = (221.81)2 and (b3j) = 145.242, respectively. The result also showed significant
location by linear and quadratic time effect interactions. Estimates of quadratic time effects for
Jimma, Agaro, and Mutu were, respectively, -151.51, -66.05, and -4, whereas estimates of linear time
effects for these locations were 158.92, 158.92, and 31.08, respectively. The combined analysis of
variance revealed that the genotype, environment, and GEI effects are highly significant (Pvalues<0.001). GEI accounted for 16.2% of the total sum of squares and was about 2 times larger
than that of genotypes. The AMMI procedure revealed that AMMI-5 was the best truncated
AMMI model that can sufficiently explain the information contained in GEI. The first three
interaction principal components (IPC1, IPC2 and IPC3) retained by Gollob’s F-test for graphical
display accounted for 64.2% of GEI.
Conclusion: The measurements of CBY that are obtained from Arabica coffee tree over time induce
an autocorrelation which is known as serial correlation. There is initially an increasing and gradually
a decreasing trend in Arabica CBY over time years with linear rate of growth. There is also a
differential response of genotypes and environments in the presence and absence of biennially. The
major factor that influence yield performance of Arabica coffee in Ethiopia is the
environment, and among 17 Arabica coffee genotypes, G1, G2, G3, G7, G8, G9 and G12 have the
best performance with G1, G2, G3, G8 and G12 being relatively stable across the test environments.
It was recommended to use information from longitudinal and GEI analysis to investigate the effect
of time and biennial and the association between genotype and environment in Arabica CBY
Maternal and fetal outcome in term premature rupture of membrane in tercha general hospital, south Ethiopia
No full textBackground: Premature rupture of membranes (PRom )is the rupture of membrane before onset
of uterine contraction . It can be either preterm or term premature rupture of membrane. Preterm
PROM is rupture of membrane at any time before onset of uterine contraction before 37 weeks
and after 28 weeks of gestational age .PROM at term refers to a patient who is beyond 37
weeks' gestation and has presented with rupture of membranes (ROM) prior to the onset of labor
It represents one of the most frequent and most controversial problem obstetricians are faced
with
In Ethiopia, where maternal mortality is still high, the maternal and fetal outcomes in PROM is
very important to decrease maternal and child mortality and for better management and
prevention of complication.
Objectives: To determine maternal and fetal outcomes and associated factor in term premature
rupture of membrane, in Tercha General hospital, south Ethiopia.
Method-Hospital based cross-sectional study design conducted on mothers who admitted to
Tercha hospital for term Premature rupture of membrane from January 1/2015 G.C- December
31/2016 GC. Data extracted using check list from patients(medical) record. The data checked,
entered and analyzed using SPSS version 22. A 95% CI and p-value of <0.05 considered to be
statistically significant.
Result- There were 124 mothers had their pregnancy complicated by term PROM of which
twenty one (16.9%)of mothers were unfavorable maternal outcome, of unfavorable maternal
outcome fourteen(13.7%) of them were complicated by puerperal sepsis followed by six (4.8%)
wound site infection and the rest one (0.8%) of them were others (pneumonia, urinary tract
infection and unknown cases).Out of the study subject one (0.8%) maternal deaths due to
puerperal sepsis. There were twenty nine (23.4%)of the fetus had unfavorable outcome. Twenty
three (18.5%) of the fetus were 1st minute Apgar score below normal.
Conclusions- The result of this study shows that, PROM is a high risk obstetric condition which
is a common problem among pregnant women and a big challenge to the neonatologists
Factors influencing exclusive breastfeeding practice among under-six months infants in Ethiopia
No full textBACKGROUND: World Health Organization recommends exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for the first 6 months of life. EBF has sustainable long-term health benefits for both infants and mothers. Despite its benefits, the practice of EBF in Ethiopia is lower than the internationally recommended one. This study aimed at identifying factors influencing EBF practice among under-6 month infants in Ethiopia. METHODS: This study used data drawn from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (2019 EMDHS) data. A multivariable logistic regression model was employed to investigate factors significantly associated with EBF practice among under-6 month infants in Ethiopia. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was used to measure the association of factors with EBF practice. RESULTS: A total of 566 infants under the age of 6 months were included in the study. The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding practice was 83% (95% CI: 79.70–86%). Urban residences (AOR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.22–0.73), mothers having secondary education (AOR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.29–1.84) and higher education (AOR: 3.18, 95% CI: 0.68–15.02), mothers having ANC visits of 1 to 3 times (AOR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.24–1.88) and ANC visits of 4 and more times (AOR: 4.27, 95% CI: 1.06–17.25), family size of more than 5 (AOR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.26–0.88), caesarean births (AOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42–0.95), and deliveries at health facilities (AOR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.12–5.63) were factors significantly associated with EBF practice among under-6 month infants. CONCLUSION: In this study, EBF practice among under-6 month infants was significantly associated with place of residence, maternal educational level, ANC visits, family size, mode of delivery, and place of delivery. Therefore, encouraging ANC visit and promotion of institutional (health facility) delivery are recommended. Furthermore, special attention has to be given to mothers with no or less education to make them better aware of the EBF and its benefits to enhance exclusive breastfeeding practice
Bio-control of anopheles mosquito larvae using invertebrate predators to support human health programs in Ethiopia
No full textMosquitoes have been a nuisance and health threat to humans for centuries due to their ability to transmit different infectious diseases. Biological control methods have emerged as an alternative or complementary approach to contain vector populations in light of the current spread of insecticide resistance in mosquitoes. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the predation efficacy of selected potential predators against Anopheles mosquito larvae. Potential invertebrate predators and Anopheles larvae were collected from natural habitats, mainly (temporary) wetlands and ponds in southwest Ethiopia and experiments were conducted under laboratory conditions. Optimal predation conditions with respect to larval instar, water volume and number of predators were determined for each of the seven studied predators. Data analyses were carried out using the Poisson regression model using one way ANOVA at the 5% significant level. The backswimmer (Notonectidae) was the most aggressive predator on Anopheles mosquito larvae with a daily mean predation of 71.5 larvae (95% CI: [65.04;78.59]). Our study shows that larval instar, water volume and number of predators have a significant effect on each predator, except for dragonflies (Libellulidae), with regard to the preference of the larval instar. A selection of mosquito predators has the potential to control Anopheles mosquito larvae, suggesting that they can be used as complementary approach in an integrated malaria vector control strategy
Exploring the cost-effectiveness of high versus low perioperative fraction of inspired oxygen in the prevention of surgical site infections among abdominal surgery patients in three low- and middle-income countries
No full textBackground: This study assessed the potential cost-effectiveness of high (80–100%) vs low (21–35%) fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) at preventing surgical site infections (SSIs) after abdominal surgery in Nigeria, India, and South Africa. Methods: Decision-analytic models were constructed using best available evidence sourced from unbundled data of an ongoing pilot trial assessing the effectiveness of high FiO2, published literature, and a cost survey in Nigeria, India, and South Africa. Effectiveness was measured as percentage of SSIs at 30 days after surgery, a healthcare perspective was adopted, and costs were reported in US dollars (216 compared with 6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: −1) difference in costs. In India, the average cost for high FiO2 was 195 for low FiO2 leading to a −15 to −1164 compared with 93 (95% CI: −65) difference in costs. The high FiO2 arm had few SSIs, 7.33% compared with 8.38% for low FiO2, leading to a −1.05 (95% CI: −1.14 to −0.90) percentage point reduction in SSIs. Conclusion: High FiO2 could be cost-effective at preventing SSIs in the three countries but further data from large clinical trials are required to confirm this. © 2023 The Author
Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study
No full text© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research
