10 research outputs found
The California Political Precinct Index: A Detailed Tool to Help Understand California Politics (Update for 2012)
No full text
BAYESIAN CHANGE POINT DETECTION IN SEGMENTED MULTI-GROUP AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING-AVERAGE DATA FOR THE STUDY OF COVID-19 IN WISCONSIN
No full textChangepoint detection involves the discovery of abrupt fluctuations in population dynamics over time. We take a Bayesian approach to estimating points in time at which the parameters of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) change, applying a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We specifically assume that data may originate from one of two groups. We provide estimates of all multi-group parameters of a model of this form for both simulated and real-world data sets. We include a provision to resolve the problem of confounding ARMA parameter estimates and variance of segment data. We apply our model to identify points in time at which influential events affecting 2020 and 2021 outbreaks of COVID-19 in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, may have occurred
San Benito County and California's Geopolitical Fault Lines
No full textOver the past decade San Benito County has emerged as California’s textbook bellwether county, narrowly mirroring statewide election results on ballot measures and statewide candidate races. San Benito’s uncanny predictive power suggests the importance of California emerging political geography as it straddles the major political fault lines of the state. Neither northern nor southern, neither coastal nor inland, and neither urban nor rural, San Benito illustrates the broad geographic forces shaping contemporary California politics
November 2011 Preliminary RCV Analysis
No full textWe present here an initial RCV analysis of the 2011 San Francisco Sheriff, District Attorney, and Mayor race. For each race, we examine the first choice by second choice voting patterns, the frequency of slates, and the number of times a candidate is on a ballot, which is useful measure of candidate performance. We also show maps for each race\u27s winner, with a few ethnic and Progressive Voter Index (PVI) correlations when noteworthy.
For the first time, we are also able to present cross-contest analyses at the individual voter level. The city’s ballot images maintain consistent voter identification numbers. This facilitates associations across contests, so shown here are first choice crosstabs for each of the major races with some political and bullet-voting analyses.
This paper focuses primarily on political outcomes rather than indicators of voters’ facility with ranked choice voting. The McCarthy Center will present research in early 2012 looking at RCV trends at a highly detailed level
Marengo 1800 Napoleon's day of fate
No full textBogen handler om slaget ved Marengo 14 JUN 1800 og giver en beskrivelse af baggrunden, de kommanderende officerer, hærene, parternes operationsplaner, de indledende krigshandlinger, Bonapartes indrykning i Italien, slagene ved Casteggio-Montebello og Marengo, det østrigske udbrud og det franske modangreb....Napoleon Bonaparte; franske og østrigske generaler: Moreau; Benedikt; Anton v. Zach; Berthier; Massena; Desaix; Soult; Melas; Lannes; Bartorkez; Perrin; Rivaud; Latterman; Monnier; Walsee; Vogelsang; Radetzky; De Best; l'Etang
Landslide: The “Obama Surge” and the Future of California Politics
No full textThe 2008 presidential election in California resulted in a landslide of historic proportions. Barack Obama’s victory, fueled as it was by 2.1 million firsttime voters, seemingly portends a realignment in California. At the same time, outside the presidential election, the results in 2008 were well within the norms of California politics. Utilizing an original dataset, we unravel this conundrum by examining whether these “surge voters” were substantially different from habitual voters, whether they have stayed engaged in electoral politics, and what might that tell us about the future partisan and political alignment in California
Ranked Choice Voting in the 2011 San Francisco Municipal Election: Final Report
No full textWe present here a final analysis of voters’ usage of the ranked choice ballot in the 2011 San Francisco Municipal Election. Unlike our previous report, which concentrated primarily on political outcomes, this paper focuses on voters’ usage of the ballot and tendencies to overvote, undervote, and rank candidates for three citywide offices: Sheriff, District Attorney, and Mayor. This study combines individual ballot records with county voter file data to allow for a systematic analysis of the relationship between various demographic factors and variations in observed voting behaviors. Additional data are presented in the appendix, including voter turnout by neighborhood in comparison to previous citywide elections in 2008 and 2010
