19 research outputs found
Twisting Theory: ANew Artificial Adaptive System for Landslide Prediction
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Twisting Theory: A New Artificial Adaptive System for Landslide Prediction
by Paolo Massimo Buscema 1,2,*ORCID,Weldon A. Lodwick 2,Masoud Asadi-Zeydabadi 2,Francis Newman 2,Marco Breda 1ORCID,Riccardo Petritoli 1,Giulia Massini 1,David Buscema 1,Donatella Dominici 3ORCID andFabio Radicioni 4ORCID
1
Semeion Research Center of Sciences of Communication, 00128 Rome, Italy
2
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80204, USA
3
Department of Civil, Construction-Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of L’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
4
Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, 06123 Perugia, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2023, 13(4), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13040115
Submission received: 29 December 2022 / Revised: 22 March 2023 / Accepted: 24 March 2023 / Published: 12 April 2023
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geophysical Risks: The Future of Observatories, The Observatories of the Future)
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Abstract
Landslides pose a significant risk to human life. The Twisting Theory (TWT) and Crown Clustering Algorithm (CCA) are innovative adaptive algorithms that can determine the shape of a landslide and predict its future evolution based on the movement of position sensors located in the affected area. In the first part of this study, the TWT and CCA will be thoroughly explained from a mathematical and theoretical perspective. In the second part, these algorithms will be applied to real-life cases, the Assisi landslide (1995–2008) and the Corvara landslide (2000–2008). A correlation of 0.9997 was attained between the model estimates and the expert’s posterior measurements at both examined sites. The results of these applications reveal that the TWT can accurately identify the overall shape of the landslides and predict their progression, while the CCA identifies complex cause-and-effect relationships among the sensors and represents them in a clear, weighted graph. To apply this model to a wider area and secure regions at risk of landslides, it is important to emphasize its operational feasibility as it only requires the installation of GNSS sensors in a predetermined grid in the target area
Photodetection with novel materials: Colloidal quantum dots nanoribbons and layered materials
No full textQN/Quantum NanoscienceApplied Science
Neuropathological findings processed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) can perfectly distinguish Alzheimer's patients from controls in the Nun Study
No full textAbstract Background Many reports have described that there are fewer differences in AD brain neuropathologic lesions between AD patients and control subjects aged 80 years and older, as compared with the considerable differences between younger persons with AD and controls. In fact some investigators have suggested that since neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) can be identified in the brains of non-demented elderly subjects they should be considered as a consequence of the aging process. At present, there are no universally accepted neuropathological criteria which can mathematically differentiate AD from healthy brain in the oldest old. The aim of this study is to discover the hidden and non-linear associations among AD pathognomonic brain lesions and the clinical diagnosis of AD in participants in the Nun Study through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) analysis Methods The analyses were based on 26 clinically- and pathologically-confirmed AD cases and 36 controls who had normal cognitive function. The inputs used for the analyses were just NFT and neuritic plaques counts in neocortex and hippocampus, for which, despite substantial differences in mean lesions counts between AD cases and controls, there was a substantial overlap in the range of lesion counts. Results By taking into account the above four neuropathological features, the overall predictive capability of ANNs in sorting out AD cases from normal controls reached 100%. The corresponding accuracy obtained with Linear Discriminant Analysis was 92.30%. These results were consistently obtained in ten independent experiments. The same experiments were carried out with ANNs on a subgroup of 13 non severe AD patients and on the same 36 controls. The results obtained in terms of prediction accuracy with ANNs were exactly the same. Input relevance analysis confirmed the relative dominance of NFT in neocortex in discriminating between AD patients and controls and indicated the lesser importance played by NP in the hippocampus. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that: a) cortical NFT represent the key variable in AD neuropathology; b) the neuropathologic profile of AD subjects is complex, however, c) ANNs can analyze neuropathologic features and differentiate AD cases from controls.</p
Twisting Theory: A New Artificial Adaptive System for Landslide Prediction
No full textLandslides pose a significant risk to human life. The Twisting Theory (TWT) and Crown Clustering Algorithm (CCA) are innovative adaptive algorithms that can determine the shape of a landslide and predict its future evolution based on the movement of position sensors located in the affected area. In the first part of this study, the TWT and CCA will be thoroughly explained from a mathematical and theoretical perspective. In the second part, these algorithms will be applied to real-life cases, the Assisi landslide (1995–2008) and the Corvara landslide (2000–2008). A correlation of 0.9997 was attained between the model estimates and the expert’s posterior measurements at both examined sites. The results of these applications reveal that the TWT can accurately identify the overall shape of the landslides and predict their progression, while the CCA identifies complex cause-and-effect relationships among the sensors and represents them in a clear, weighted graph. To apply this model to a wider area and secure regions at risk of landslides, it is important to emphasize its operational feasibility as it only requires the installation of GNSS sensors in a predetermined grid in the target area
Long-term follow-up of efficacy and safety of selinexor maintenance treatment in patients with TP53wt advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer: A subgroup analysis of the ENGOT-EN5/GOG-3055/SIENDO study
No full textObjective: To report long-term efficacy and safety of selinexor maintenance therapy in adults with TP53 wild-type (TP53wt) stage IV or recurrent endometrial cancer (EC) who achieved partial remission (PR) or complete remission (CR) following chemotherapy. Methods: Analysis of the prespecified, exploratory subgroup of patients with TP53wt EC from the phase 3 SIENDO study was performed. Progression-free survival (PFS) benefit in patients with TP53wt EC and across other patient subgroups were exploratory endpoints. Safety and tolerability were also assessed. Results: Of the 263 patients enrolled in the SIENDO trial, 113 patients had TP53wt EC; 70/113 (61.9%) had TP53wt/proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) EC, and 29/113 (25.7%) had TP53wt/deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) EC. As of April 1, 2024, the median PFS (mPFS) for TP53wt patients who received selinexor compared with placebo was 28.4 versus 5.2 months (36.8-month follow-up, HR 0.44; 95% CI 0.27-0.73). A benefit in mPFS was seen with selinexor versus placebo regardless of MMR status (patients with TP53wt/pMMR EC: 39.5 vs 4.9 months, HR 0.36; 95% CI 0.19-0.71; patients with TP53wt/dMMR EC: 13.1 vs 3.7 months, HR 0.49; 95% CI 0.18-1.34). Selinexor treatment was generally manageable, with no new safety signals identified. Conclusion: In the phase 3 SIENDO study, selinexor maintenance therapy showed a promising efficacy signal and a manageable safety profile in the prespecified subgroup of patients with TP53wt EC who achieved a PR or CR following chemotherapy. These results are being further evaluated in an ongoing randomized phase 3 trial (NCT05611931)
Pilot Study of the Prospective Identification of Changes in Cognitive Function During Chemotherapy Treatment for Advanced Ovarian Cancer
No full textFunzione ausiliaria della Corte dei conti e disfunzioni strutturali della decisione finanziaria nello stato di democrazia pluralista
No full textLo scritto affronta il tema delle difficili relazioni fra vincoli di bilancio euro-nazionale, autonomia finanziaria degli enti territoriali e garanzia dei livelli essenziali delle prestazioni concernenti i diritti civili e sociali. Si tratteggia dunque l'evoluzione del quadro normativo in tema di controlli sui bilanci degli enti territoriali e giudizi di parificazione per mostrare come ciò abbia condotto all’attivazione del sistema di garanzie giurisdizionali della Costituzione. Si presenta poi il tema dell’ausiliarietà della Corte dei conti mirando a collocarlo oltre i rapporti fra organi costituzionali e ad individuare i limiti dei controlli sugli atti di natura finanziaria. Si prende dunque in esame come l'esercizio dei controlli e l'attivazione del sindacato di costituzionalità sugli atti di natura finanziaria abbia concorso a definire tali limiti, unitamente ai vincoli per la discrezionalità legislativa ed amministrativa nell'allocazione delle spese e nella individuazione del quantum di risorse necessarie a finanziare le funzioni spettanti agli enti territoriali (spese costituzionalmente necessarie e principio di proporzione fra risorse e funzioni). Il saggio si chiude con una riflessione, critica, sul processo di attuazione del PNRR e sulle linee di tendenza della riforma dei controlli, volte a sviluppare la funzione consultiva ed il controllo concomitante.The essay approaches the issue of EU budgetary constraints, Territorial Authonomy and enforcement of Constitutional norms on civil and social Rights and their essential levels of protection. It is stressed how the evolution of the normative framework on external audits on budgets on Towns and Regions in particular led to a judicial review of legislation in financial matters. To this extent the Author also shows how the auxiliar function of the Italian Court of Auditors shifted from a Constitutional framework focused on the dialectic between Parliament and Government into a wider context where the Court of Auditors is auxiliar toward the Constitutional legality. It is then described how it has been built the character of judicial review of legislation in financial matters and the impact that the measures adopted to exit from the financial and economic crisis caused by Covid-19 can have both on the normative framework shaping the functions of the Court of Auditors and on the functioning of judicial review of legislation on financial matters
New Mediterranean Biodiversity Records (March 2016)
No full textPoursanidis, Dimitris/0000-0003-3228-280X; Ayas, Deniz/0000-0001-6762-6284; Malaquias, Manuel/0000-0002-9668-945X; Primo, Micarelli/0000-0003-0582-3770; Sperone, Emilio/0000-0002-3180-7611; Karachle, Paraskevi K./0000-0002-6934-1773; Deidun, Alan/0000-0002-6919-5374; Castriota, Luca/0000-0002-3349-9501; Izquierdo Gomez, David/0000-0002-5054-0465; Izquierdo-Munoz, Andres/0000-0002-6887-5036; Spinelli, Andrea/0000-0003-0639-8809WOS: 000374469200020In this Collective Article on "New Mediterranean Biodiversity Records", we present additional records of species found in the Mediterranean Sea. These records refer to eight different countries mainly throughout the northern part of the basin, and include 28 species, belonging to five Phyla. The findings per country include the following species: Spain: Callinectes sapidus and Chelidonura fulvipunctata; Monaco: Aplysia dactylomela; Italy: Charybdis (Charybdis) feriata, Carcharodon carcharias, Seriola fasciata, and Siganus rivulatus; Malta: Pomacanthus asfur; Croatia: Lagocephalus sceleratus and Pomadasys incisus; Montenegro: Lagocephalus sceleratus; Greece: Amathia (Zoobotryon) verticillata, Atys macandrewii, Cerithium scabridum, Chama pacifica, Dendostrea cf. folium, Ergalatax junionae, Septifer cumingii, Syphonota geographica, Syrnola fasciata, Oxyurichthys petersi, Scarus ghobban, Scorpaena maderensis, Solea aegyptiaca and Upeneus pori; Turkey: Lobotes surinamensis, Ruvettus pretiosus and Ophiocten abyssicolum. In the current article, the presence of Taractes rubescens (Jordan & Evermann, 1887) is recorded for the first time in the Mediterranean from Italy. The great contribution of citizen scientists in monitoring biodiversity records is relected herein, as 10% of the authors are citizen scientists, and contributed 37.5% of the new findings.EEA [-33-51/30.06.2015]D. Izquierdo-Gomez and A. Izquierdo-Munoz are grateful to the local fishermen of Santa Pola for their help as well as to Antonio Martin de la Sierra for his field observations. They also convey thanks to the staff of the ish market and the Aquarium of Santa Pola for providing landings data and cooperating for animal handling, respectively. Alfonso Ramos Espla also provided the authors with valuable insights into improve the manuscript; P. Micarelli and E. Sperone are very grateful to A. Barreca for assistance in recording the biometric data of the specimen; G. Insacco and B. Zava are grateful to Mr Angelo Carnemolla, owner of the vessel 2CT 682, for his prompt information and to Mr Lino Buscema (Co-operativa Pescatori "U Scaru", Donnalucata, Ragusa) who provided the specimen. The authors warmly thank Maria Corsini-Foka (HCMR, Hydrobiological Station of Rodos) for useful comments, which improved a previous draft of their note; F. Fiorentino, D. Massi and B. Zava thank Salvatore and Sergio La Ciura (Isola delle Femmine, Palermo) and Luigi Di Salvo (Porticello, Santa Flavia, Palermo) for allowing them to collect the specimen and catch data; Z. Dodo and J. Dulcic would like to thank the professional fisherman Dragan Lopin for taking a photo and providing data on the specimen of the bastard grunt; A. Joksimovic and J. Dulcic wish to thank Ange-lika Rafailovic for providing the specimen from Budva; D. Poursanidis and F. Crocetta would like to thank Giorgos Karelas (Greece) and the team of the Oceanis Diving Centre (Greece) for providing the unpublished data reported herein and Bilal Ozturk (Turkey) for discussing the first sighting date from Turkey; C. Stamouli and A. Dogrammatzi would like to thank the fisherman Mr. Kannakis for providing the specimen; M.M. Brodersen and N. Chalari would like to thank the fishermen A. Gournelos, C. Markomichelakis and P. Michaletos for providing specimens and A. Dogrammatzi for helping define the maturity stage; O. Gonulal thanks Sabine Stohr for kindly providing assistance for the identiication of the Brittle Stars; S. Tuncer and U. Onal thank Mr. Hakan Kaya who kindly donated the specimen to COMU, Piri Reis Museum; D. Ayas & D. Yaglioglu would like to thank Ekosfer for supporting their study. They also thank "Ekosfer Environmental Consulting Limited" and all the staff; F. Crocetta, P. K. Karachle and A. Zenetos also acknowledge the East and South European Network for Invasive Alien Species - a tool to support the management of alien species in Bulgaria (ESENIAS-TOOLS), EEA funded project (Contract No. -33-51/30.06.2015), for supporting the study of alien species from central and eastern European countries
Breaking the 'Glass Ceiling' of Risk Prediction in Recidivism: An Application of Connectionist Modelling to Offender Data
No full textThe present thesis explored the capability of connectionist models to break through the ‘glass ceiling’ of accuracy currently in operation in recidivism prediction (e.g., Yang, Wong, & Coid, 2010). Regardless of the inclusion of dynamic items, all risk measures rarely exceed .75 in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (Hanley & McNeil, 1982). This may reflect the emphasis of multiple regression equations on main effects of a few key variables tapping long-term anti-social potential. Connectionist models, not used in criminal justice, represent a promising alternative means of combining predictors given their ability to model interactions automatically. To promote learning from other fields a systematic review of the literature on the application of connectionist models to operational data is presented. Lessons were then taken forward in the development of a connectionist model suitable for the present data which comprised fields from the Offender Assessment System (OASys) (Home Office, 2002) relating to 4,048 offenders subject to probation supervision. Included in the items for modelling was the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) (Copas & Marshall, 1998; Taylor, 1999). Combining static and dynamic items using conventional statistical methods showed a maximum cross-validated AUC of .82. Using the connectionist model however a substantial increase in accuracy was observed, AUC=.98, and this largely maintained when variations in time to recidivism were controlled. Variation to model parameters suggested that performance linked to the resources in the middle layer, responsible for modelling rare patterns and interactions between items. Model pruning confirmed that while the connectionist model exploited a wide range of variables in its classification decisions, the linear model was affected mainly by OGRS and a limited number of other variables. Results are discussed in terms of the theoretical and practical benefits of developing the use of connectionist models for better incorporating individuals’ dynamic risk and protective factors in recidivism assessments, and reducing the costs associated with false classifications
