1,792,152 research outputs found
Determining the effectiveness of the Delphi method for quantifying the drivers of demand for health and social care
No full textThis paper focuses on research of the Delphi method used in the Centre for Workforce Intelligence (CfWI). In the CfWI, the Delphi method is applied to quantify the uncertainties for the future workforce demand and supply modelling in health and social care. The objective of this research is to review and assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Delphi method as applied to recent CfWI projects, and to make recommendations for improving this method. The Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) method is used in this research which contains three main steps. The first step is to conduct independent interviews with several staffs relevant to the Delphi procedure in the CfWI, from which lots of information about the specific application of the Delphi method in the CfWI can be obtained. The second step is to summarize the concepts got in interviews. A cognitive map can be achieved combing the summary of interviews, literatures, and the reports of the CfWI projects. The final step is to improve the cognitive map by interviewing some key staffs again. From the cognitive map, some problems existing in the current CfWI projects are founded, such as high attrition rate, time consuming, technical limitations, and so on. The relationships among different problems can be identified by analysing the relations of each concept in the cognitive map. In order to solve the problems effectively, the CfWI proposes an improvement plan using workshop Delphi instead of the web-based Delphi. In addition, the author puts forward a video workshop Delphi approach based on the workshop Delphi method
The DELPHI detector at LEP
No full textDELPHI is a 4π detector with emphasis on particle identification, three-dimensional information, high granularity and precise vertex determination. The design criteria, the construction of the detector and the performance during the first year of operation at the large electron positron collider (LEP) at CERN are described
The Delphi: An Underutilized Method of Scholarly and Practical Research for a Public Relations Field in Transition
No full textThis paper introduces, analyzes, and explains the Delphi method of research, particularly as it applies to certain aspects of the public relations industry. The Delphi technique became known some fifty years ago when the Rand Corporation used it extensively for forecasting. Since then, scholars and forecasters have used it periodically for early, qualitative explorations into complex issues or domains. The overall purpose of the Delphi is to facilitate formal discussion among selected experts in a given domain around a particular topic; it is particularly useful when those experts cannot easily come together in one place. The method encourages the sharing of diverging worldviews over a few “rounds” or iterations in the hope that the views may converge into some direction around the given topic. For this reason, the Delphi has often been used in situations or environments that tend to be somewhat ambiguous and where interviews and surveys are neither timely nor appropriate. Public relations scholars started incorporating the Delphi method into their research in the late 1980s, and the technique has since been employed to explore broad-ranging issues among experts on at least seven or eight occasions. It has also been used to explore ethical norms. However, public relations literature contains little discussion about the technique and its possible applications or implications for developing knowledge in the field. This paper, then, is intended to dissect the Delphi method so as to offer guidance to public relations scholars who may wish to use it in future studies. The authors, both of whom have conducted Delphi studies, believe that the method is valuable in examining topics that are emerging or underdeveloped in the field; however, certain precautions are necessary in order to ensure that the research achieves the desired effects. The paper is created through a literature review of similar articles on Delphi studies in other domains, notably health communications, followed by an examination of some studies conducted to advance issues in public relations. The authors explore the most appropriate situations for using a Delphi and list the benefits and disbenefits of different aspects or applications of the method. They trace the evolution of Delphi research from its early roots into the era of the Internet and social media, which offer new tools for increasing the number of respondents and moving through the Delphi process more quickly than could previously be done. In advancing such an examination of the Delphi, this paper should be a useful addition to emerging public relations literature
Szoftverfejlesztés Delphi-ben
No full textSzakdolgozatom témájaként nem véletlenül választottam a Szoftverfejlesztés Delphi-ben címet. A Delphi az általam egyik legkedveltebb fejlesztőkörnyezet. Fejlesztettem már CodeGear, NetBeans és Visual Studio rendszerekben is, sőt a régebbi környezeteket nem is említem. Ebből adódóan programoztam már C, C++, C# ás Java nyelveken is, természetesen az egyetemi gyakorlatokon felül, saját problémáim megoldása végett. Ám mind közül a Delphi és az objektumorientált Pascal áll hozzám a legközelebb, hiszen tizenévesen a Pascal nyelvvel kezdtem el a programozással való megismerkedést. Ezen kívül a Delphi-nek rendkívül nagy támogatottsága van a mai napig, ami nem meglepő, hiszen az egyik leginkább felhasználó barát fejlesztőkörnyezet. Az Interneten számtalan ingyenes komponenst lehet fellelni, így egy folyamatosan bővülő és fejlődő eszköz a Delphi. Habár a Pascal nyelv manapság már nem igazán felel meg a kor követelményeinek, de még a C# térhódítása sem tudta kiszorítani a piacról a Delphi-t. Sőt a Delphi készítője a Borland cég folyamatosan fejleszti ezt a környezetet, ahogy az újabbnál-újabb technológiák napvilágot látnak, így most már a Delphi-t el lehet érni, például a Microsoft által fejlesztet .NET támogatással is, ezzel is felvéve a versenyt a konkurenciával. Mivel eddig a legtöbb alkalmazásomat Delphi-ben fejlesztettem, ezért a témaválasztás számomra evidens volt.B
Delphi Method and Nominal Group Techniques in Family Planning and Reproductive Health Research
No full textBoth the Delphi method and nominal group technique
offer structured, transparent and replicable ways of
synthesising individual judgements and have been used
extensively for priority setting and guideline development
in health-related research including reproductive
health. Within evidence-based practice they provide a
means of collating expert opinion where little evidence
exists.They are distinct from many other methods
because they incorporate both qualitative and quantitative
approaches. Both methods are inherently flexible; this
article also discusses other strengths and weaknesses of
these methods
An email-based Delphi approach to tourism program evaluation: Involving stakeholders in research design
No full textA panel of key stakeholders was consulted in the design of a survey being used for evaluating the Tapestry Tourism Futures Project - a systems-based modelling project in the south-west of Western Australia. The email-based Delphi consultation approach that was adopted was seen as a means of increasing the relevance of the outcomes to stakeholders. It is argued that this approach resulted in the participation of a diverse range of stakeholders in a time- and cost-efficient manner. However, some limitations of the method in terms of the provision of adequate feedback and direction are noted. It is concluded that through close liaison between the panel coordinator and advisory panel participants, an email-based Delphi process constitutes a highly effective consultation method for involving stakeholders in tourism research design
EU network carriers, low cost carriers and consumer behaviour: A Delphi study of future trends
No full textThis paper uses a Delphi panel of 26 air transport experts to forecast the
structure of air transport in the EU in 2015 in respect of network carriers, low
cost airlines and passenger behaviour. Secondary research was used to construct
a number of scenarios about the future structure and strategy of EU network and
low cost airlines and also traveller behaviour. Consensus of opinions was sought
amongst the panel in a two-round process. The consensus opinion of the Delphi
experts was that; network carrier consolidation will reduce EU players to less
than five, there will be only two or three large low cost carriers, Business
Class products will disappear on short hauls. and leisure travellers will take
an increasing number of multiple short-duration holidays
Delphi Austria - An Example of Tailoring Foresight to the Needs of a Small Country
No full textThe world-wide diffusion and recognition of Technology Foresight suggests that it is of value for quite diverse types of economies and societies. Its merit as an important tool of strategic intelligence for policy-making also in small countries and transition economies depends on a careful tailoring to specific needs. Practice of Foresight is rather diverse also among small countries, but approaches tend to be more selective in scope, have more specific goals, and put greater emphasis on demand aspects than in bigger countries. Austria’s first systematic Foresight programme (completed in 1998) is an example of an innovative approach adapted to the needs of a small country. This contribution shows how Delphi Austria was tailored to a small economy which had undergone a successful catch-up process and how the Foresight process as well as its results have been utilised.Technology Foresight, Delphi method, small country, Austria, innovation, technology policy, implementation
Research priorities for child and adolescent physical activity and sedentary behaviours : an international perspective using a twin-panel Delphi procedure
No full textBACKGROUND: The quantity and quality of studies in child and adolescent physical activity and sedentary behaviour have rapidly increased, but research directions are often pursued in a reactive and uncoordinated manner. AIM:To arrive at an international consensus on research priorities in the area of child and adolescent physical activity and sedentary behaviour. METHODS:Two independent panels, each consisting of 12 experts, undertook three rounds of a Delphi methodology. The Delphi methodology required experts to anonymously answer questions put forward by the researchers with feedback provided between each round. RESULTS:The primary outcome of the study was a ranked set of 29 research priorities that aimed to be applicable for the next 10years. The top three ranked priorities were: developing effective and sustainable interventions to increase children's physical activity long-term; policy and/or environmental change and their influence on children's physical activity and sedentary behaviour; and prospective, longitudinal studies of the independent effects of physical activity and sedentary behaviour on health. CONCLUSIONS:These research priorities can help to guide decisions on future research directions
The Delphi process - an expert-based approach to ecological modelling in data-poor environments
No full textResource managers are involved in difficult decisions that affect rare species and habitats but often lack relevant ecological knowledge and experience. Ecological models are increasingly being looked to as a means of assisting the decision-making process, but very often the data are missing or are unsuited to empirical modelling. This paper describes the development and application of the Delphi approach to develop a decision support tool for wildlife conservation and management. The Delphi process is an expert-based approach to decision support that can be used as a means for predicting outcomes in situations where 'absolute' or 'objective' models are unavailable or compromised by lack of appropriate data. The method aims to develop consensus between experts over several rounds of deliberation on the assumption that combining the expertise of several individuals will provide more reliable results than consulting one or two individuals. In this paper the approach is used to engineer soft knowledge on the conservation requirements of capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, an endangered woodland grouse, into a model that can be used by forests managers to improve the quality of forest habitat for capercaillie over extensive commercial forest areas. This paper concludes with a discussion of the potential advantages and disadvantages of Delphi and other soft knowledge approaches to ecological modelling and conservation management
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