1,720,995 research outputs found
Post-Keynesian endogenous money theory: Horizontalists, structuralists and the paradox of illiquidity
No full textThe paper aims to provide a theoretical advancement in the post-Keynesian debate between horizontalists and structuralists by offering an additional theoretical support to the horizontalist view. Through the newly introduced notion of paradox of illiquidity, a critique to the endogenous money–liquidity preference model is developed, by focusing on the relationship between the volume of loans and the mark-up. The paradox of illiquidity aims to deny: (a) the idea of a banking sector achieving illiquid position during its lending activities and, consequently, (b) the view of an upward sloping credit supply curve
Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories
No full textThe aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves
Post Keynesian endogenous money theory: A theoretical and empirical investigation of the credit demand schedule
No full textThe article investigates the relationship between interest rates and loan amounts provided by commercial banks from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. Theoretically, some scholars belonging to the post Keynesian endogenous money tradition advocate that a decrease (increase) in interest rates leads to a positive (negative) effect on the amount of loans demanded by households and firms. On the other hand, some heterodox economists maintain that interest rates do not stimulate firms’ credit demand but that a certain degree of influence is allowed for loans provided to households. By applying a vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error-correction model (VECM) methodology to European Central Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data for the eurozone, this article proposes an empirical validation of such theoretical premises by analysing the relationship between the different types of credit provided by commercial banks and the corresponding interest rates. The main results show a negative relationship between the interest rates and the credit provided for the purchase of houses. Conversely, no significant relationship is found between loans granted to enterprises and loans for the purchase of consumption goods and the corresponding interest rates
Putting Austerity to Bed: Technical Progress, Aggregate Demand and the Supermultiplier
No full textThe paper investigates the determinants of private investment and economic growth from a theoretical perspective. We start with a critical analysis of the crowding-out effect and we present a new version of the Sraffian Supermultiplier: a model that accounts for both the multiplier and accelerator effects. We focus on different types of fiscal policies: generic ones and ‘mission-oriented’ ones that set a new direction for the economy. We show that mission-oriented policies have the potential to generate the largest positive effect on investments and output growth as well as on innovation processes and labour productivity growth
Directed innovation policies and the supermultiplier: An empirical assessment of mission-oriented policies in the US economy
Full text linkThis paper investigates the determinants of economic growth from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. The paper combines the supermultiplier model of growth with the Neo-Schumpeterian framework that emphasises the entrepreneurial role of the state. We aim to detect the macroeconomic effect generated by alternative fiscal policies: generic ones and more directed ‘mission-oriented’ ones. Using an SVAR model for the US economy for the 1947–2018 period, we show that mission-oriented policies produce a larger positive effect on GDP (fiscal multiplier) and on private investment in R&D (crowd-in effect) than the one generated by more generic public expenditures
Monetary policy and long-term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy
No full textThis paper addresses the ability of central banks to affect the structure of interest rates. We assess the causal relationship between the short-term Effective Federal Funds Rate (FF) and long-term interest rates associated with both public and private bonds and specifically, the 10-Year Treasury Bond (GB10Y) and the Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond (AAA). To do this, we apply Structural Vector Autoregressive models to U.S. monthly data for the 1954–2018 period. Based on results derived from impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, we find: a bidirectional relationship when GB10Y is considered as the long-term rate and a unidirectional relationship that moves from short- to long-term interest rates when AAA is considered. These conclusions show that monetary policy is able to permanently affect long-term interest rates and the central bank has a certain degree of freedom in setting the levels of the short-term policy rate
The money creation process: A theoretical and empirical analysis for the United States
No full textThe aim of this paper is to assess—on both theoretical and empirical grounds—the two main views regarding the money creation process, namely the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. After analysing the main issues and the related empirical literature, we will apply a vector autoregression model and a vector error-correction model methodology to the United States for the period 1959–2017 to assess the causal relationship between a number of critical variables that are supposed to determine the money supply, that is, the monetary base, bank deposits, bank loans and the nominal level of economic activity. The empirical analysis supports several propositions related to the endogenous money approach. In particular, it shows that for the United States in the years 1959–2017 (a) bank loans determine bank deposits and (b) bank deposits in turn determine the monetary base. Our conclusion is that money supply is mainly determined endogenously by the lending activity of commercial banks and the nominal level of economic activity
The Price Puzzle and the Hysteresis Hypothesis: SVEC Analysis for the US Economy
No full textThis paper shows that monetary policy tightening may lead to an increase in the level of prices. To demonstrate this, we apply SVEC modelling to US monthly data for the 1959–2018 period and endorse the ‘hysteresis hypothesis’ which assumes that monetary policy produces long-lasting effects on unemployment and prices. Contrary to what has been argued by Hanson (2004. ‘The “Price Puzzle” Reconsidered.’ Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (7): 1385–1413) and Castelnuovo and Surico (2010. ‘Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and the Price Puzzle.’ The Economic Journal 120 (549): 1262–1283), the phenomenon known as the ‘price puzzle’ or ‘Gibson paradox’ is confirmed both in the pre-1979 and post-1982 periods, showing that the paradox is independent of the active/passive behaviour of the Central Bank. Our findings detect a cost channel of monetary policy demonstrating that a change in the interest rates by monetary authorities may have an effect on income distribution
Neither crowding in nor out: Public direct investment mobilising private investment into renewable electricity projects
No full textRapid structural change towards a low-carbon energy supply requires significant additional investments into innovative but high-risk low-carbon technologies. Mobilising greater private investments requires applying the right policy instruments, but while fiscal measures and regulation have been well researched, systematic quantitative evidence about the effect of public direct investment is lacking. Absent empirical evidence, contradictory theoretical arguments claim that such public (co-)investments either ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private investors. In this paper we show that the macroeconomic concept of crowding out/in is inapplicable to sectoral studies such as of renewable electricity. Instead, both neoclassical microeconomics and evolutionary economics suggest public direct investment to have a positive effect due to either externalities or market creation effects. We also provide the first quantitative estimate of the effect of public direct investment on private investment into renewable electricity technologies for 17 countries in the period 2004–2014. Using FGLS and static and dynamic GMM estimators, we find that public investments not only have a positive but also consistently the largest effect on private investment flows relative to feed-in tariffs, taxes and renewable portfolio standards in general, and for wind and solar technologies separately. Implications for policy aimed at accelerating the low-carbon transition are discussed
Tertiarization, productivity and aggregate demand: evidence-based policies for European countries
No full textOver the last two decades, mature European countries have experienced a slackening in economic growth and stagnating labor productivity. Such a stagnating productivity may result both from poor ‘within sector’ growth and/or ‘structural change’ toward the service sectors. Productivity growth in turn impacts economic and social sustainability in various ways: in particular, it matters for preserving trade balance sustainability at a high level of output and employment and it enhances the scope for preserving and improving welfare systems in the face of an ageing population. The contribution of this paper with regard to these issues is twofold. First, by means of a shift-share analysis, we assess the weight of ‘structural change’ versus ‘within sector’ growth in affecting overall productivity dynamics. Second, we investigate empirically the impact of demand factors on ‘within sector’ productivity growth by testing the Kaldor-Verdoorn law in selected European countries. To do so, we estimate long-run productivity elasticity to autonomous demand by using an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) cointegration-based methodology for the 1970–2015 timespan. Findings show that: (i) productivity growth is mainly driven by the ‘within sector’ effect, with a relatively small role played by tertiarization, particularly in the most recent phase (1999–2015); and (ii) autonomous demand growth is relevant in determining productivity dynamics, especially in manufacturing and in the private sector of the economy. A major policy implication is that coordinated expansionary macroeconomic policies would matter for productivity growth in the EU, and at the same time contribute to sustaining employment
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