1,721,112 research outputs found
WAGNER'S LAW AND AUGMENTED WAGNER'S LAW IN EU-27. A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON STATIONARITY, COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY
Full text linkThe relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income has long been debated in economic literature. According to Wagner, expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome. On the other hand, Keynes considered public expenditure as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument to influence growth. "Augmented" version of Wagner's Law, where public deficit appears as further explanatory variable, is also investigated. The aim of this paper is to assess empirical evidence of these hypotheses in EU-27, for the period 1970- 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is offered, before evaluating some specifications of "Wagner's Law" due to several researchers. Few notes on the empirical evidence' comparisons conclude the paper.Wagner's Law; public expenditure; EU-27; correlation; unit root tests; cointegration analysis; causality
Consolidamenti e stimoli fiscali nell’UE: un’analisi empirica
No full textIl volume raccoglie i risultati di una ricerca del CREI di Roma Tre, su "Legge di Stabilità e politica economica europea" svolta da Lilia Cavallari, Stefano D'Addona, Rama Dasi Mariani, Francesco Forte, Marilena Giannetti, Valerio Intraligi, Filippo Lepore, Cosimo Magazzino, Olga Marzovilla, Marco Mele, Paolo Naticchioni, Gian Cesare Romagnoli, Simone Romano e Gaetana Trupiano. La Legge di stabilità per il 2015 segnala un cambio di stagione importante, anche se non è risolutiva, di per sé, in termini di spinta alla crescita e alla riduzione del debito pubblico. La novità sostanziale è data da una riduzione consistente del cuneo fiscale, come parte di una nuova politica industriale basata soprattutto sulle riforme strutturali, che il Paese attende da anni. Essa si accompagna al Jobs Act da cui pure si attende una ripresa della crescita.
Le risorse di gettito aggiuntive prodotte dalla più rapida crescita saranno destinate ad addolcire l'onere dell'aggiustamento fiscale per famiglie e imprese. La Legge di Stabilità trova un soddisfacente punto di incontro tra austerity e crescita e si collega alle politiche di exit strategy dalla crisi economica che beneficeranno della riduzione degli spread attesa anche dal Quantitative Easing.
Con questo scopo, la ricerca ha guardato agli effetti delle politiche fiscale e monetaria europee e alle tendenze del mercato del lavoro in presenza di cambiamento tecnologico e di immigrazione. L'approccio seguito dal governo Renzi è stato quello di impegnarsi sulle riforme istituzionali e strutturali richieste dalla nuova governance europea piuttosto che invocare l'unione politica, per la quale mancano ancora i presupposti, come panacea del debito pubblico. In questa temperie storica, la domanda di unione politica è maggiore dell'offerta e ciò costringe i paesi che la domandano a pagare prezzi più alti in termini di quadro macroeconomico. L'auspicio espresso dalla ricerca effettuata dal CREI nell'anno precedente, che il nuovo governo potesse trarre utili elementi di riflessione dai suoi risultati, anche sul profilo redistributivo di un welfare meno universalistico, ha trovato un riscontro
Premessa
No full textIl volume raccoglie i risultati di una ricerca del CREI dell'Università Roma Tre sulla "Legge di Stabilità e la politica economica in Italia" svolta da Carmela D'Apice, Maurizio Franzini, Cosimo Magazzino, Salvatore Monni, Alessandro Petretto, Gian Cesare Romagnoli e Gaetana Trupiano.
La Legge di Stabilità ha sostituito la Legge Finanziaria dal 2010, all'inizio della crisi dei debiti sovrani europei. Nel 2011 il governo di Mario Monti ha dovuto affrontare sfide molto difficili: uno spread tra Bund tedeschi e Btp italiani decennali oltre i 500 punti base, il terzo rapporto debito pubblico/Pil del mondo, i vincoli di finanza pubblica dettati dalla nuova governance europea, la pressione da parte delle agenzie di rating su titoli di stato e sistema bancario, una crisi di produttività ultra-decennale, un'evasione fiscale endemica e una instabilità politica di fondo. La stella polare dell'esecutivo è stata quella di raccogliere la dura sfida del consolidamento dei conti pubblici nonostante una recessione persistente e una disoccupazione giovanile inaccettabile. Ma gli strumenti scelti per cercare di conseguire gli obiettivi sembrano essere stati, almeno in parte, mal selezionati e discutibili in termini redistributivi. Inoltre, l'austerità voluta dall'esecutivo è stata restrittiva perché si è quasi totalmente concentrata sul versante delle entrate, mentre il contributo al risanamento dei conti pubblici avrebbe dovuto agire su entrambi i fronti, aprendo la strada a un'austerità espansiva, con la riduzione del cuneo fiscale. Anche nella Legge di Stabilità per il 2013, le semplificazioni, le liberalizzazioni, le privatizzazioni, una minore tassazione del lavoro, una riforma delle relazioni finanziarie intergovernative, l'abbandono dell'universalismo delle prestazioni, sono rimasti sullo sfondo. L'auspicio è che il nuovo governo possa trarre utili elementi di riflessione da questa ricerca
Testing the stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions series in MENA countries
No full textPurpose
This study aims to investigate the stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions series in MENA countries. The stationarity and unit root properties of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions series are explored by an increasing amount of studies, which use different methodologies. Examining the time series properties of energy and environmental series is crucial for both researchers and the policymakers, given the close link between energy, environment and the real economy. In fact, if energy exhibits the presence of a unit root, this suggests that this series does not revert to its equilibrium level after being hit by a shock.
Design/methodology/approach
The contribution of this work is twofold. First, to the author’s knowledge, a very little attention has been paid to the topics of stationarity and convergence of CO2 emissions in the case of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) member states, especially in a panel context. Convergence analyses of CO2 emissions for MENA countries can improve the knowledge of energy and environmental scenario of the area, giving some ideas for appropriate future policies. Second, this is the first study that jointly analyzed time series and panel data properties of emissions series for these countries.
Findings
The author finds that relative per capita CO2 emissions in the 19 MENA countries are a mixture of I(0) and I(1) processes and there is a weak evidence to support the stationarity of CO2 emissions. After having verified the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the series, the panel unit root tests in presence of cross-section dependence show strong evidence in favor of non-stationarity. In addition, after performing tests for ß-convergence, it is also found that per capita CO2 emissions are converging on average in 11 out of 19 sample’s countries, while s-convergence analysis reveals that the variance of per capita CO2 emissions decreased over time, which is an indication of convergence.
Originality/value
Important policy implications emerge from the empirical results. Sustainable environmental and energy policies rely heavily on the CO2 series’ properties. In this regard, determining whether shocks to CO2 emissions are permanent or transitory is important for setting feasible goals for sustainable environmental policies. Given that per capita CO2 emissions are essentially associated with a quality of life, the issues of their reduction have been the leading agenda in energy and environmental management over the past two decades
Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis
Full text linkThe aim of this article is to assess the empirical evidence of the nexus between aggregate income and energy consumption for Italy during the period 1970-2009, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before discussing the data and intro-ducing some econometric techniques. Stationarity tests reveal that both series are non-stationary, or I(1). Moreover, we found a cointegration relationship between the two variables. The short-run dynamics of the variables show that the flow of causality runs from energy use to GDP, and there is a long-run bi-directional causal relationship (or feedback effect) between the two series. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to GDP growth in Italy.Energy policies; energy consumption; GDP; stationarity; cointegration; causality; Italy
Legge di Wagner e spesa pubblica italiana disaggregata: un approccio VAR
No full textWagner’s Law is the first model of public expenditure in the history of public finance. The aim of this article is to assess its empirical evidence in Italy for the period 1960-2008 at a disaggregated level, with a VAR approach. After a brief introduction and a survey of the economic literature on this issue the specifications of Wagner’s Law for some specific public expenditures are estimated. Wagner’s original specification is also estimated. Some notes on the long-term relationship between public spending and national income conclude the paper.Spesa pubblica, crescita economica, Legge di Wagner, serie storiche, radici unitarie, cointegrazione, causalità, politiche di bilancio
Wagner versus Keynes: Public Spending and National Income in Italy at a Disaggregated Level
No full textWagner's Law is the first model of public spending in the history of public finance. The aim of this study is to assess its empirical evidence in Italy for the period 1960–2008 at a disaggregated level, using a time series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before estimating the specifications of Wagner's Law for some specific items of public spending (for interests, for final consumption, for labor dependent income, for grants on production, and for public investments), according to the Bank of Italy classification. We found a cointegration relationship for three out of five items. Moreover, results from Granger causality tests show evidence in favor of Wagner's Law only for passive interests spending in the long-run, and for dependent labor income spending in the short-run. Some notes on the policy implications of our empirical results conclude the paper.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189381200064
The Political Determinants of Social Expenditure in the European Countries
No full textThe social expenditure in 30 European countries over the period 1970-2011 is examined, applying static and dynamic panel estimators in order to identify the determinants of social expenditure. After a brief introduction and a survey of the economic literature on this issue, we discuss the data and briefly introduce the applied methodologies. Empirical results, in line with previous researches, suggest that real per capita GDP growth, unemployment rate, general government consolidated gross debt, and openness to trade have a direct impact on real social expenditure. Moreover, some political factors, such as government fragmentation, political globalization, and democracy degree contribute to explain the variability of social expenditure. It is found that higher growth is associated with less expenditure: Granger causality analysis reveals mixed results, and only four countries of our sample exhibit a unidirectional flow running from economic growth rate to social expenditure.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313594409_The_Political_Determinants_of_Social_Expenditure_in_the_European_Countrie
Disaggregated public spending, GDP and Money Supply: Evidence for Italy
No full textThe aim of this article is to analyze the relationship between public spending and GDP controlling for the money supply in Italy for the period 1990-2010 at a disaggregated level, using a time series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is shown, before estimating this nexus for ten items of public spending according to the COFOG functional classification. Cointegration tests reveal a long-run relationship between GDP, money supply and eight spending items. Moreover, Granger causality tests results show evidence in favour of Wagner’s Law in two cases (Y->G), while a bi-directional flow has been found in only one case. The Keynesian hypothesis (G->Y) is supported by five series of spending. Some notes on the policy implications of this analysis conclude the paper.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235981768_Disaggregated_public_spending_GDP_and_money_supply_Evidence_for_Ital
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