1,720,995 research outputs found
Skill biased technological change and process innovation in QUEST III with R&D: Policy Simulations for "Industria 4.0"
Full text linkNella tesi si vogliono quantificare gli effetti dei provvedimenti governativi che vanno sotto il nome di “Piano Nazionale Industria 4.0:Acquisizione di Competenze e Investimenti Innovativi” sulla crescita economica attraverso la simulazione degli scenari di politica sul modello QUEST III-Italia modificato con la introduzione di equazioni che consentano di trattare il fenomeno dello “Skilled Biased Technical Change” (SBTC) e “innovazione di processo.”
Il primo obiettivo viene raggiunto endogenizzando le quote di lavoratori occupati.
La relazione ipotizzata è tale per cui la quota dei superstar workers e la quota dei non routinized skilled workers dipenda con una relazione logistica, e quindi crescente, dalle nuove idee. Al contrario, i routinized skilled workers costituiranno la categoria residuale e che quindi diminuisce all’aumentare delle nuove tecnologie. Questa categoria residuale è stata introdotta al fine di modellare la sostituibilità tra routinized skilled workers e tecnologie. Il secondo obiettivo viene raggiunto modellizzando la produttività del capitale fisico legata agli spillover delle nuove idee. La quota di nuove idee non coperta da brevetto, porta, attraverso gli spillover, ad una produttività totale del capitale fisico, maggiore del costo di acquisto del capitale fisico stesso. Tale produttività, influenza gli investimenti nell’equazione di accumulazione del capitale fisico, facendo sì che il valore del capitale fisico sia maggiore del suo costo d’acquisto.
I principali risultati tratteggiano un contesto economico italiano di crescita seppur non sostenuta, e tale da allontanare l’Italia dal rischio di crescita zero. Il processo di crescita endogena esplica interamente il suo effetto solo nel lungo periodo, quando il capitale umano ha completato l’intero processo di formazione ed è effettivamente allocato nel settore di R&D e quando tutti gli effetti delle riforme governative hanno trovato attuazione. Dal lato dell’occupazione la crescita economica è frenata principalmente dalla mancanza di infrastrutture tali da sostenere il processo di formazione dei lavoratori previsto dal piano. Le nuove tecnologie non trovano terreno fertile dal lato delle competenze, e dal lato delle infrastrutture, con il risultato che questo potenziamento delle competenze porta solo nel lunghissimo periodo ad un aumento dell’occupazione altamente qualificata. Nel breve periodo le nuove tecnologie portano un insieme limitato di lavori low skilled complementari ad esse, che induce un aumento dell’occupazione low skilled, che decrementa a sua volta man mano che queste mansioni vengono automatizzate.Abstract
In this thesis, an attempt is made to evaluate the effects on growth of the National Plan Industria 4.0, the government set of policy measures articulated in two main policy frames known as Skill Achievements and Innovative Investments. The quantitative evaluation is performed through the simulation of policy scenarios within a modified version of the model QUEST III-Italy. Model changes have been implemented for enabling a more satisfactory treatment of the “Skill Biased Technical Change” (SBTC) and “Process Innovation”.
The first aim is reached through the endogenization of the skill-shares of employed workers. In the relationship introduced the production of new ideas influences the share of superstar workers and the share of non-routinized skilled workers according a logistic relationship; while routinized skilled workers are allocated in a residual category that reduces as new technologies increase. This mechanism allows for the consideration of the substitutability between routinized skilled workers and technologies. The second aim has been reached modeling the spillover of the physical capital productivity. The share of new ideas not covered by patents is not included in the acquisition cost of physical capital, but provides, through spillovers, a total physical capital productivity higher than the acquisition cost of physical capital itself. This productivity affects investment in the physical capital accumulation equation, making the value of physical capital higher than its acquisition cost.
The main results put in evidence a positive trend for the Italian economy so to move Italy out of the zero growth threat. The endogenous growth process entirely explicates its effect only in the long run when human capital has completed the education process and is really effective in R&D sector and when all the effects of government measures have been put in operation. From the employment point of view economic growth is reduced mainly by the lack of infrastructures to support the workers education process forecasted by the plan. New technologies can find their way both through the skills and through the infrastructures, with the result that this empowerment of skills leads to an increase in high skilled workers only in the very long run. In the short run new technologies will bring a limited set of other low skilled jobs, complementary to them, which induce to an increase in low skilled employment, which decreases when these skills will be digitalized
The Future Paths of Urbanization: A Brief Review
No full textNowadays, the traditional, established idea of inclusivity and equality of the so called “European City” has been threatened by an increasingly faster urbanization process. The present urban sprawl follows a fragmented and unbalanced development path. This fragmentation is likely to produce severe consequences in the socioeconomic sphere of individuals, leading, in particular, to income inequalities. Within this context, the work provides a theoretical framework aimed at analysing the present urban expansion paths. The contribution is addressed to policy makers aimed at providing indications to design effective socio-territorial policies to enhance the quality and equity of future urbanization in metropolitan areas throughout the world
Unconventional monetary policy expansion: the economic impact through a dynamic CGE model
Full text linkThe ongoing economic stagnation and low inflation rates affecting EU have refuelled the debate on the role and the limits of monetary policy in pushing the economic growth. Given the tight margins for fiscal policy for EU state members, traditional and unconventional monetary policies are becoming more looked-for to break out of this condition. However, the main issue on whether the real or nominal aspects prevails still remains. In this situation, a framework able to identify and analyse any interaction between economic and financial flows becomes crucial to detect the dynamics pushing towards expansions or contractions resulting from monetary policies. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the direct and indirect impact of monetary policies implemented by the European Central Bank on the main Italian macroeconomic variables both in aggregate and disaggregate terms. For this purpose we use Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated on the financial Social Accounting Matrix for Italian economy
In-between urban change and rural stasis: Childbearing postponement as an indicator of regional transitions in Southern Europe
No full textChildbearing postponement, more sensitive to economic fluctuation, increased during the second demographic transition, together with a reduction in the number of children per woman and the increasing age at the first child. Since the 2007 recession causes a downturn in population dynamics of affected countries, the present study investigates spatial changes in mother's age at birth along the urban gradient in Greece. The percent composition of births by mother's age class-a gross indicator of fertility under changing socioeconomic contexts-was studied at 4 spatial scales (the whole country, administrative regions, provinces, and metropolitan areas) over the time period 1980-2016, encompassing a cycle from economic expansion to recession. The outcomes of this study highlight the neutral effects of the 2007 recession on fertility trends in Greece, consolidating a process of childbearing postponement observed since the early 1980s, fostering a persistent divide in fertility trends between urban and rural areas
Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: detection and forecasting via market indicators
No full textContextual differences, contrasting trends? Sustainable development, economic performances, and divergence in land resource depletion
No full textSpatial convergence of ecological/environmental processes has attracted an increasing interest of geo-economic disciplines and social science at large. In this perspective, a quantitative assessment of convergence (or divergence) in specific variables across space is particularly challenging in a context of global change and may contribute to delineate and clarify both linear and more complex processes of natural resource depletion and their underlying factors. In this contribution, we reviewed the theoretical notion of “convergence” in environmental processes, discussing the role of geographical scales as reflective of political, economic, and territorial heterogeneities. Convergence processes have been also disentangled according to the specific background context, and the most relevant implications for policy implementation have been finally discussed. In line with the empirical studies testing for convergence in economic and social variables, our contribution indicates that an “ecological convergence” analysis requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach aimed at a thorough understanding of socio-environmental systems' complexity
Down-scaling socioeconomic development patterns with satellite imagery: A preliminary analysis
No full textThe Human Development Index (HDI), based on life expectancy, education and per-capita income, is one of the most adopted indicators of human development. However, undeniable problems in data collection limit between-countries comparisons reducing the practical applicability of the HDI in official statistics. Elvidge et al., (2012) proposed an alternative index of human development (Night Light Development Index, NLDI) derived from nighttime satellite imagery and population density, with improved comparability over time and space. The NLDI assesses inequality in the spatial distribution of night light among inhabitants. It has proven to correlate significantly with the HDI at the country scale. However, the NLDI presents some drawbacks when applied to the smaller analysis' spatial domains, since similar NLDI values indicate very different levels of development. A modified NLDI overcoming this drawback is proposed in this study to assess human development at 3 spatial scales (the whole country, 5 geographical divisions and 20 administrative regions) in Italy, a country with relevant socioeconomic disparities. The original and modified NLDI were correlated with 5 independent indicators of economic growth, sustainable development and environmental quality. The spatial distribution of the original and modified NLDI is not coherent with the level of human development in Italy being instead associated with various indexes of environmental quality. Further investigation is required to identify in which socioeconomic context (and at which spatial scale) the NDLI approach correctly estimates the level of human development in affluent countries
Regional competitiveness and tourism growth: a “latent” issue in rural development
No full textIn the discourse surrounding rural development and regional competitiveness in Europe, tourism growth emerges as a latent yet pivotal topic. With this in mind, this chapter strategically redefines the concept of “tourism attractiveness,” particularly in rural areas. Drawing from recent advancements in applied economics, the concept of “competitiveness indicators” is reframed as fundamental elements in any investigation of regional development, thereby reshaping the cultural boundaries and analytical tools used to evaluate tourism potential and territorial allure. Through a narrative analysis grounded in literature review, a comprehensive array of basic assets comprising the concept of “territorial potential”, alongside an associated monitoring approach based on “performance indicators”, is introduced and briefly discussed. This methodological framework may facilitate the creation of indicator dashboards for assessing tourism development, particularly in specialized rural regions, enabling the construction of composite indices of tourism growth and performance by integrating official statistical data and multivariate exploratory data analysis. Finally, deliberation on this approach within a specific context explores its potential for fostering sustainable tourism development and outlines potential policy implications for future research and planning strategies
Testing the Zipf's law under heterogeneous urban-rural hierarchies with spatial quantile regressions
No full textDespite the widespread recognition of Zipf's law in urban economics, empirical evidence reveals deviations from the strict adherence to its postulated parameters. In our contribution to this ongoing debate, we applied Zipf's law to population density of a metropolitan hierarchy in Greece (1033 municipalities) over a substantial timeframe (1961-2021). To overcome the specific limitations of global Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models, cross-section spatial quantile regressions had been performed. The outcomes unveiled heterogeneous rank-size relationships for urban municipalities corresponding with the first and the second quartile of density distribution. These relationships became more homogeneous in rural municipalities (third and fourth quartiles). Consistent with the predictions of Zipf's law, slope coefficients exhibited a notable increase over time, approaching 1 for mixed urban-rural municipalities. Conversely, they remained slightly below 1 for strictly urban municipalities and slightly above 1 for strictly rural ones. Space was found to play a significant role during late urbanization (1980s-1990s), suggesting an impact of agglomeration economies on metropolitan hierarchy. Suburbanization exerted a reverse effect resulting in more heterogeneous hierarchies since the late-1990s. Our findings underscore the intricate nexus between deviations from Zipfian patterns in urban-rural population distribution and the spatially explicit dynamics of city life cycles
COVID-19 and a trade-off between health and economics: An extended inoperability model for Italy
No full textThe recent COVID-19 has obliged governments to enact large-scale policies to contain it. A topic of economic debate is the quantification of the impact that these policies can create in the economy, with the aim of activating regulatory mechanisms to minimize this impact. In this vein, this study aims to propose a quantification of the effects of the Italian government policy that blocks nonessential production activities
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