1,720,986 research outputs found
Business cycles and stock market performance in South Africa
Full text linkThe stock market is an important indicator of an economy’s financial health. It checks the mood of
investors in a country. Stock market performance is a vital component of business cycle growth. Thus,
this study investigates the relationship between stock market performance and business cycles in
South Africa for the period 2002-2009 using monthly data. This is done by constructing a Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM). The study specifies a business cycle model with the business cycle
coincident indicator of South Africa being the independent variable explained by the All Share Price
index (ALSI), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Money Supply (M1), Inflation (CPIX) and the
Prime Overdraft Rate (POR). The ALSI represents stock market performance whilst the rest of the
variables are to enhance model specification. The study found a positive association between stock
market performance and business cycles and this match with most of the results from the empirical
literature provided
The impact of economic growth on unemployment in South Africa: 1994 - 2012
Full text linkOne of the most pressing problems facing the South African economy is unemployment, which has
been erratic over the past few years. This study examined the impact of economic growth on
unemployment, using quarterly time series data for South Africa for the period 1994 to 2012.Johansen
Co-integration reflected that there is stable and one significant long run relationship between
unemployment and the explanatory variables that is economic growth (GDP), budget deficit (BUG),
real effective exchange rate (REER) and labour productivity (LP). The study utilized Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effects of macroeconomic variables thus REER, LP, GDP
and BUG on unemployment in South Africa. The results of VECM indicated that LP has a negative
long run impact on unemployment whilst GDP, BUG and REER have positive impact. The study
resulted in the following policy recommendation: South African government should re-direct its
spending towards activities that directly and indirectly promote creation of employment and decent
jobs; a conducive environment and flexible labour market policies or legislations without
impediments to employment creation should be created; and lastly government should prioritise
industries that promote labour intensive. All this will help in absorbing large pools of the unemployed
population thereby reducing unemployment in South Africa
Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Modelling and Granger Causality Test
Full text linkPrevious studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner’s law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.</jats:p
The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure
Full text linkThis study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.</jats:p
Challenges associated with infrastructure delivery
Full text linkThe main purpose of this paper is to document some challenges faced by Independent Development Trust (IDT) in infrastructure delivery of the provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal. Infrastructure delivery has a significant effect on the local budgets or budgets of projects in the province. The main focus of the study was the root causes of delays, budgetary overruns and the resultant effect on service delivery back-logs and socio-economic impact caused by such delays. The study setting comprised of professional stakeholders in the built environment and these include specialists and professionals in the engineering, construction management, civil and general building fields. The objectives of this study were achieved by means of a self-administered questionnaire that was distributed to a group of participants, composed of project managers, quantity surveyors, engineers, architects and project managers working with IDT. The nature of the research was quantitative and data analysis used descriptive and a bit of inferential statistics to arrive at some generalizations and conclusions. The study was able to affirm that there are major inefficiencies in the current infrastructure delivery model of the South African government. Major causes identified include factors such as delays in payments, poor planning, subsiding levels of professional ethics and standards exercised by professionals in the built environment, and so forth. The study also made some recommendations from the research findings. Clearly the infrastructure delivery model requires a new trajectory in tackling the under-development and triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and slow economic growth.</jats:p
Factors influencing success of construction projects by emerging contractors in South Africa: a case of Mahikeng area
Full text linkEmerging contractors play a critical role in the South African economy in terms of rendering services to government especially in the construction sector. However, literature findings reveal that some of the SMMEs are unable to deliver their projects successfully due to project management issues. The focus of this study was to establish the project management factors influencing the successful delivery of construction projects by emerging contractors in the Mahikeng area of South Africa. A mixed design research method was used to collect, analyse and derive the findings. Findings revealed that projects do not comply with the time, scope, cost and quality requirements. Focus group interview results attributed these problems to lack of project management skills among the emerging contractors. It is recommended that more support initiatives from the South African Department of Public Works, and other key stakeholders in the construction industry be provided to these contractors
The conceptualisation of e-Learning at the public sector
Full text linkThe South African public sector is faced with many challenges and one of the major challenges is service delivery. This is linked with skills shortage resulting in public service having too many people to train in a short period of time. Training these many employees face-to-face has its challenges, as employees have to be away from their day-to-day duties to attend training and this not only has an impact on productivity, but also maximizes costs. To deal with and to minimize these challenges, the South African government has chosen to introduce e-Learning in public sector. This is aimed at ensuring that larger numbers of government officials are trained at minimum costs and ensuring that training reaches people with different responsibilities such as top management and people with families who cannot afford to be away from home or office for training for long periods of time. This study examined the advantages and disadvantages of the introduction of e-Learning in the public sector, the importance of strategic planning for e-Learning, the challenges faced by the public sector when it comes to training, how other organizations internationally have conceptualized e-Learning and what the public sector is hoping to achieve by introducing e-Learning. The gaps in the conceptualization of e-Learning in the South African public sector were identified and possible solutions including a paradigm shift from a reductionist way of thinking to a systems way of thinking and doing things was recommended.
Keywords: e-Learning, public sector, benchmarking, conceptualization. JEL Classification: H83, A2, G2
Factors impeding the use of banking services in rural Southern African states
Full text linkThe paper presents factors why people are reluctant to bank money in rural Southern African countries. Six countries namely Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe were used in the study. A focus group of 10 people from each of the stated Southern African countries was composed and used to obtain perceptions, views, reactions, attitudes, experiences among others on why people are reluctant to bank their money. People are unwilling to bank their money in rural Southern Africa and the reasons behind this seem to be many. If no correctional measures are put in place, rural Southern Africa will continue to be unbanked for the next five decades
The Factors Influencing Energy Intensity in the South African Manufacturing Industry
Full text linkMCom (Economics), North-West University, Mafikeng CampusThe study investigates the determinants of energy intensity in the manufacturing industry. The objectives are to analyse trends, to determine the drivers of manufacturing energy intensity and make policy recommendations. The study investigates the effects of manufacturing value added, foreign direct investments, energy prices and trade openness on manufacturing energy intensity. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model on time series data for the period of 1980 to 2017.
The findings of the study depict that manufacturing value added, foreign direct investment and energy prices are the most important determinants in explaining manufacturing energy intensity over the reviewed period. Manufacturing value added is found to be statistically significant both in the short and long run. Foreign direct investment is found to be statistically significant in the long run whereas, energy price is significant in the short run.
In light of this, the study makes policy recommendations. With regards to total manufacturing value added, the study recommends that the industry be closely monitored. Government should subsidize energy efficient machinery and equipment and the use of old outdated technology should be banned. With regards to foreign direct investment, the study recommends that the FDI policy be reviewed such that it attracts foreign investors. The recommendation regarding energy prices is that government should encourage energy price reform and use subsidies to encourage energy saving enterprises.Master
The impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in the SACU member economies between 1980 and 2017 : a panel ARDL approach
No full textMCom (Economics), North-West University, Mahikeng CampusThis study seeks to investigate the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Southern African Custom Union (SACU) member economies between 1980 and 2017. Government expenditure and revenue were used as the proxy variables for the fiscal policy whereas real interest rate, inflation, official exchange rate and M2 money supply were used as the proxy variables for monetary policy. Using Lin, Levin and Chu (LLC), and Im, Peresan and Shin (IPS) unit root tests, it was found that all variables were stationary at level except for M2 money supply which was found to be stationary after first difference. Due to this, Panel Auto Regression Distributed Lags (PARDL) estimation technique was utilized in this study.
Pooled Mean Group (PMG) PARDL model estimator was used in this study. The results indicate that fiscal and monetary policy influence economic growth significantly in the long run. However, fiscal policy is only significant if government expenditure is used as the functional policy instrument rather than government revenue. In the short run, the effects of these two macroeconomic policies on economic growth are mixed.
Granger causality results indicate that the direction government expenditure, real interest rate, inflation and official exchange rate Granger cause economic growth. These causality links are uni-directional in nature. Lastly, the results also indicate that private investment is crowded out in the long run because of significant high levels of government expenditure in the long run across SACU member economies. In the short run, private investment is crowded out because of significant high level of government expenditure only in Swaziland.
As some of the recommendations of this study, SACU member governments should redirect their public expenditures into investing more in human capital. Investing in human capital, among other factors can include empowering the active unemployed population with relevant skills that meet labor markets for easy employment. In that case, the tax revenues would increase which could play an important role in reducing government budget deficits. Furthermore, SACU member economies’ central banks can make monetary policy more effective by using monetary accommodation. Hence, when the governments apply expansionary fiscal policy, the central banks can increase money supply to avoid interest rates from increasing (monetizing budget deficit).Master
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